Matrixport Research: Optimistic about BTC Q4 Market
The trading range of BTC is narrowing, indicating that it may soon break out of the consolidation period.Matrixport Research Institute's latest study indicates that,
- BTC's Q4 market outlook is positive, and from a technical perspective, BTC is expected to break out of consolidation.
- A significant interest rate cut by the central bank in the next 12 months cannot be ruled out.
- BTC is about to enter a monthly weak period, and Trump may drive the crypto market.
BTC's Q4 Market Outlook is Positive, Technical Analysis Suggests BTC May Break Out of Consolidation
Currently, we are in the mid-third quarter, and BTC is experiencing one of the most challenging quarters in history. Coupled with the upcoming weak period, the challenging trading environment may continue for several weeks. However, the market outlook for BTC in the fourth quarter is positive.
From a technical perspective, the trading range of BTC is narrowing, indicating that it may soon break out of the consolidation phase. Based on expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and favorable conditions in the fourth quarter, along with potential boosts from the results of the U.S. presidential election, it cannot be ruled out that BTC may achieve a breakout in the coming weeks.
A Significant Interest Rate Cut by the Central Bank in the Next 12 Months Cannot Be Ruled Out
As expected, the Federal Reserve did not adjust interest rates. Fed Chairman Powell has stated that if inflation develops as expected, a decision to cut rates may be made at the September meeting. Our inflation model also predicts that CPI will gradually decline over the next 12 months. The Fed's rate cuts may continue for several quarters, reducing by 25 basis points at each meeting. This will provide liquidity and stimulus for risk assets like BTC.
The current interest rate is 5.25%, and the inflation rate is 3.0%, with the difference reflecting the Fed's restrictive interest rate policy. This suggests that the central bank may significantly cut rates in the next 12 months.
BTC is About to Enter a Monthly Weak Period, Trump May Drive the Crypto Market
According to historical patterns, the return rate in August typically trends sideways, while September enters a weak performance period. Several factors may contribute to this cyclical pattern, including lower trading volumes during summer holidays and market uncertainty stemming from traders awaiting autumn economic indicators and central bank policy decisions.
If Trump wins, the series of policies and actions he is about to take may drive the crypto asset market. His administration may adopt a more favorable regulatory stance towards crypto assets, thereby reducing regulatory uncertainty and promoting innovation.
The above views are partly derived from Matrix on Target. Contact us for the complete report from Matrix on Target.
Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investment should be approached with caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading in digital assets may involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.
