Matrixport Market Observation: BTC Under Short-Term Pressure and Consolidation, Will the Altcoin Bull Market Arrive?

In the past week, Bitcoin saw an outflow of $457 million, marking the first large-scale outflow since early September. The ongoing selling pressure has affected the upward trend of BTC, leading it into a short-term consolidation phase under pressure. Last week, the BTC price reached a low of $90,792 and a high of $97,208, with a maximum fluctuation of 7.43% during the week. Currently, the BTC price fluctuates around $95,000. The price trend of ETH is generally consistent with that of BTC, having broken through the $3,500 resistance level on the 27th and rising to a high of $3,760, with a slight pullback yesterday, currently stabilizing around $3,600 (data sourced from Binance spot market, December 3, 18:00).

Last week, U.S. stocks recorded the most significant gains in recent times. During the shortened trading session on November 29, the S&P 500 soared by 5.73%, the Dow Jones increased by 7.54%, and the Nasdaq rose by 6.21%, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching all-time highs, perfectly closing out November. December 2 started relatively quietly, with slight declines in the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones.

Under this premise, current SEC Chairman Gensler has officially stepped down, and Donald Trump's SEC chair nomination may be announced tomorrow, with crypto-friendly former SEC Commissioner Paul Atkins being the leading candidate.

Due to the influence of the U.S. government's BTC transfers, altcoin activities, and geopolitical factors on prices, although the pace of BTC reaching the $100,000 target is slowing, the accumulation by whales and expectations of loose policies continue to stimulate significant short-term price increases in the crypto market. In the context of heightened meme coin sentiment, investors are advised to pay attention to risk management while capturing market opportunities.

Market Highlights

Due to the U.S. ETF launch, XRP inflows reached $95 million, with an increase of about 69%
XRP inflows reached $95 million, the largest ever, possibly due to speculation surrounding the potential launch of a U.S. ETF. According to data from on-chain analytics firm Santiment, XRP whales have been busy accumulating large amounts of XRP recently, leading to a significant bullish trend in XRP prices.

Currently, the total number of XRP holders has increased by 119,820, with a price increase of about 69%. The number of non-empty XRP addresses has also surpassed 5.5 million for the first time in XRP's history. In addition to whale accumulation, there is optimism regarding upcoming U.S. cryptocurrency legislation, attracting many large institutional and retail investors. Currently, XRP is priced at $2.67 (real-time data as of December 3, 17:00), exceeding normal resistance levels and reaching extreme risk levels.

Currently, Solana and XRP are competing to become the next cryptocurrencies to receive ETF approval. With the change in SEC chair and Trump's crypto-friendly policies, the path to launching cryptocurrency ETFs may become easier.

MicroStrategy purchases an additional 15,400 BTC, valued at approximately $1.5 billion

MicroStrategy, the publicly traded company holding the most BTC globally, purchased an additional 15,400 BTC (valued at $1.5 billion) between November 25 and December 1, marking the company's fourth consecutive week of BTC purchases. Its total BTC holdings now amount to 402,100 BTC.

Previously, the company sold over 3.7 million shares of MicroStrategy stock and plans to continue its stock sale strategy. As of December 1, MicroStrategy still has approximately $11.3 billion worth of stock available for sale. Over the next three years, the company plans to raise a total of $42 billion through the sale of stocks and fixed-income securities. A significant portion of these funds will be used for further Bitcoin acquisitions.

The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has significantly increased

According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining the current interest rate through December is 25.5%, while the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 74.5%. The probability of maintaining the current interest rate through January next year is 20.6%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut at 65.1% and a cumulative probability of a 50 basis point cut at 14.3%.

John Williams, President of the New York Federal Reserve, publicly stated at a meeting of the Queens Chamber of Commerce on December 2 that as inflationary pressures continue to ease, the Federal Reserve may further lower its rate targets to support a sustainable return to the 2% inflation goal.

U.S. government marks address transfers approximately 19,800 BTC

According to Arkham data, the U.S. government marked address transferred 19,800 BTC into new wallets, of which 10,000 BTC (approximately $968 million) was transferred to Coinbase. The U.S. government currently holds 188,309 BTC, valued at approximately $18.24 billion.

This move has attracted considerable market attention, causing the Bitcoin price to drop nearly 3% to $94,500, but the market quickly recovered. On-chain data indicates that these 10,000 BTC did not actually flow into the market, and it remains unclear whether this was a genuine sale or a strategic adjustment.

Investment Advice

Based on recent market performance and data, the current crypto market is exhibiting significant volatility. Driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and optimism surrounding U.S. cryptocurrency legislation, altcoins like XRP have seen substantial inflows and price increases, but there are certain short-term risks involved. In the face of an uncertain regulatory environment and market FOMO sentiment, investors need to be cautious of the market's sharp fluctuations in the short term, closely monitor changes in market sentiment, and adopt reasonable risk management strategies. It is advisable to adjust investment portfolios in a timely manner and avoid excessive risk exposure.

As a leading one-stop crypto financial services platform, Matrixport offers users a variety of asset management products, including dual-currency investments, snowball products, shark fin products, trend smart earnings, seagull products, and installment purchases, among other structured products; quantitative strategies and passive strategies for strategic investments. These products support multi-currency investments with a wide range of selectable investment periods.

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