Big fluctuations are imminent. How do institutions view the future market trends?

Author: Nan Zhi, Odaily Planet Daily

Since Bitcoin briefly touched a high of $72,000 last Friday (June 7), the overall market has begun another round of significant collapse. Tonight, the CPI and Federal Reserve interest rate decisions will be announced, and a new wave of volatility is about to arrive.

How do various institutions and research institutes view the future market trends? This article summarizes their main viewpoints since June 7 as follows.

Bullish: The Bull Market Continues

10x: If BTC Breaks $72,000, It Will Continue to Reach New Highs, Bullish on BTC/ETH Rate

10x Research stated in its latest market analysis report that tonight's dual macro events, CPI and FOMC, seem difficult to predict after last week's U.S. employment data exceeded expectations, leading most Wall Street banks to push back their first rate cut expectations to September or later. Although the interest rate-sensitive Nasdaq continues to hit historical highs, Bitcoin has fallen from $71,000 to $67,000.

If Bitcoin's price rises above $72,000 ($71,946), it may break new highs. However, over-leveraged Ethereum futures may negatively impact Bitcoin, which is favored more than Ethereum (last week BTC fell 5%, ETH fell 9%).

U.S. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler's comments about the time required for Ethereum ETF S-1 approval seem more likely to begin unwinding leveraged long positions rather than repricing Wall Street's interest rate expectations. Enthusiasm around the Ethereum ETF has significantly decreased, and the ETH/BTC rate continues to decline.

Kimchi Premium is Rebounding, Indicating Increased Demand from Korea

Recently, the "Kimchi Premium" for Bitcoin in South Korea fell below 1% after nearing 10% in mid-April, and the premium is currently rebounding. CryptoQuant data shows that after hitting a low of 0.62% on June 4 (when global prices were nearly the same), the premium climbed to 3.42% by June 6. Analysts point out that this typically indicates increased demand from Korea, which may push Bitcoin's price higher in the short term.

Additionally, CoinMarketCap's archived data on June 9 shows that the global trading price of Bitcoin is $69,288, while on Upbit, Bitcoin's price is $71,130, a premium of 2.658%. Similar premiums were also observed on Bithumb, Coinone, and Korbit. The premium for Ethereum is also at 2.69%, with a global price of $3,679, while the price on Upbit and other platforms is $3,778. (Bitcoin.com)

BTC Shifting from CEX to DEX Indicates Long-Term Bullishness

Glassnode data shows that as investors await price increases in the bull market, the user balances of Bitcoin and Ethereum on centralized exchanges have significantly decreased, with Bitcoin's value dropping to less than 2.3 million coins (approximately $158 billion), and Ethereum's value dropping to less than 16 million coins (approximately less than $58 billion). The user balances of these two major cryptocurrencies have fallen to their lowest levels in four years, and analysts interpret this move as a bullish signal for the future. The decline in exchange balances indicates growing confidence in the long-term potential of these digital assets, as investors choose to withdraw their cryptocurrencies from trading halls and put them into deep freeze. (Bitcoinist)

Bitfinex: Euro Rate Cuts Favor BTC

On June 7, Bitfinex analysts stated that due to decreased investor interest in risk assets, BTC may be below the $70,000 mark this week (already realized). However, prior euro rate cuts may increase Bitcoin's liquidity, as rate cuts could weaken the euro, potentially leading to increased demand for alternative assets like Bitcoin. The liquidity increase brought about by monetary easing may also support risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. (Cointelgraph)

Bitfinex: BTC Will Rise Above $120,000 in This Cycle

Analysts from cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex predict that the current Bitcoin bull market cycle may peak in the fourth quarter of 2024. Analysts state that historical data shows Bitcoin typically reaches historical new highs (ATH) a few months after halving events, thus predicting that the market peak may occur around the fourth quarter of 2024.

Bitfinex analysts forecast that in the current cycle, based on on-chain indicators and historical patterns, Bitcoin is expected to reach at least $120,000 in this cycle. (TheBlock)

QCP Capital: BTC Will Continue to Rise

Analysts from cryptocurrency trading firm QCP Capital stated that today's U.S. unemployment claims report and next week's CPI could be catalysts for Bitcoin to reach new historical highs. Additionally, with the potential for rate cuts, Bitcoin may rise further. Analysts also expect ETH to continue underperforming in the short term and noted that SEC Chairman Gary Gensler stated in a CNBC interview yesterday that approval for the spot Ethereum ETF S-1 "will take some time." (Theblock)

Neutral: Possibility of Sideways Movement Cannot Be Ruled Out

ETF Inflows Are Not Necessarily Bullish Bets

Despite the record high inflows into the U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETF, the spot price of Bitcoin continues to fluctuate within a narrow range. ETF inflows seem to be part of a non-directional cash and arbitrage strategy and do not necessarily represent a thorough bullish bet. Anonymous market observers CMS Holdings stated: "Entities buy the ETF and sell CME futures to reduce the basis in some major markets, allowing entities to realize net profits, which is why ETF inflows are high but the spot remains relatively unchanged." This strategy is commonly referred to as cash arbitrage, aimed at profiting from the premium of the futures market relative to the spot market. (Coindesk)

Bitcoin's Third Quarter Backtesting Data Shows Mediocre Performance

According to on-chain analyst Ali's post on X platform, historically, Bitcoin generally performs poorly in the third quarter, with an average return of only 6.49% and a median return of -2.57%.

Strong Support for BTC at $67,350 Level

According to on-chain analyst Ali's post on X platform, Bitcoin is anchored in a strong support area between $67,350 and $69,380, where 1.97 million addresses hold 964,000 Bitcoins. Maintaining this level is crucial for Bitcoin to sustain its upward momentum.

Bearish: The Market Remains Pessimistic

Cryptoquant: ETH Will Continue to Decline in the Short Term

Cryptoquant analyst ShayanBTC stated that Ethereum's price may continue to decline in the short term unless market conditions change. Currently, Ethereum's price struggles to break $4,000, and the buy-sell ratio in the futures market (7-day moving average) shows sellers in control. This ratio has recently failed to rise above 1 and has sharply declined, indicating that most futures traders are either selling Ethereum for speculative purposes or to realize profits. This trend is seen as a bearish signal, and if it continues, the current downward pullback may persist.

QCP Capital: Buy the Dips

QCP Capital stated in its market analysis on June 8 that the unexpected better-than-expected non-farm data and the rise in unemployment rates are enough to trigger risk-averse sentiment before next Wednesday's U.S. inflation data and FOMC announcement.

Additionally, Roaring Kitty's live stream attracted nearly a million viewers during which GME's stock price plummeted. Altcoins and meme coins also fell in tandem, with a market cap evaporation of over $40 billion, which may not be a coincidence.

There is bullish capital flow in this downturn, including aggressive sellers of put options and buyers of call spreads, especially in BTC.

QCP Capital believes this downturn presents a good buying opportunity, as the market will increasingly digest the impact of the Federal Reserve likely cutting rates at least once from now on. With other countries around the world continuing to cut rates, it will be difficult for the U.S. to ignore this.