Cryptocurrency Market Outlook for June: The Best Beta for ETH is Assets with "ETH" in Their Names

Author: Sleeping in the Rain

Hello everyone, the June outlook is here.

In this month's content, after doing enough addition, I want to try the effect of subtraction this time. I will only discuss my thoughts on future market trends and some specific event timelines (catalysts).

It seems that only memecoin gamblers can make money in this cycle. $WIF is doing okay, while $PEPE has quite a bit of price volatility, and very few have truly benefited throughout the process. There are also some fundamental coins that have performed well, but they are few, just a couple, like $PENDLE. If we were to select the annual buzzwords, PVP would definitely be one of them.

So what should we do?

Here are some of my personal thoughts:

1. Fundamentals and Community

Are fundamentals important? I think they are very important.

I believe that the current fundamentals should refer to the ability to "attract market attention." The current fundamentals are closely related to project data, token distribution, community stickiness, marketing/KOL statements, narratives/catalysts, and whether they can meet the core needs of the market, among other indicators. One should look at a target more comprehensively.

For example, $PENDLE. I personally think Pendle performs excellently in these aspects. In terms of the correlation between fundamentals and narratives, the initial rise was due to Pendle aligning with the LSD narrative, and this year Pendle has deeply participated in the LRT narrative, driving the price further up. This alignment with the narrative keeps Pendle at the forefront of market attention. That is, when people discuss or intend to buy, they will think of Pendle.

I have also participated in Pendle's community, and Pendle has done well in community stickiness and product education. For example, the account @PendleIntern does a great job, allowing users genuinely interested in Pendle products to learn some strategies through this account, thus formulating plans that better suit their financial situations.

I won't elaborate much on the marketing aspect; there are many introductions to Pendle on Twitter, and you can search for them. In a nutshell, these marketing contents can be summarized as: less blind shouting, mostly short articles, threads, and prints based on logic, data, and products.

When dealing with most targets, we need to reference these indicators.

2. Information Transmission

It is important to recognize which layer of information transmission you are in.

3. Market Sentiment

Learn to observe market sentiment. The specific method is to dive into communities, observe the statements of community members/KOLs, and check what the smart money is saying at market sentiment highs/lows on Twitter.

You can establish a unique information flow to observe market sentiment at key time nodes.

Looking back at the market sentiment in early May, did it feel familiar?

Little Tip: You can scroll through Douyin.

Also, remember to observe your own emotional fluctuations.

4. Practice Prediction

Many articles introducing GCR mention this, so I won't elaborate further; you can search for it.

Next, let's talk about some targets that I am relatively optimistic about:

I. ETH ETF

ETH ETF is great, no need to say more. Besides leveraging, the best Beta for ETH is those targets with ETH in their names, like $ETHFI and $ENS. (I won't recommend $ENA, and $ETC counts as one, but the halving event has already ended). Although I hold $LDO and its fundamentals and circulation status are quite good, considering its recent performance, I won't recommend it (even though it has warmed up recently).

Of course, Pendle is the same. However, I have talked about Pendle many times this year, so I won't elaborate here.

As for memes, besides $PEPE, you can look at $MOG, which is a meme that is being shouted about more overseas.

For ETH DeFi-related matters, I would consider $MKR. The future catalysts for $MKR are: splitting + SubDAO (another point worth noting is the collaboration between MakerDAO and Ethena).

As for Beta, you can wait until ETH truly starts to rise before chasing.

Let's talk a bit more about Layer2.

1. BaseChain

I have positioned myself in $DEGEN on Base; whether it can make money still needs time to verify. We can look forward to what will happen when Coinbase launches its smart wallet. We should always keep an eye on projects that can bring cash flow to project parties in the long term.

Pay more attention to opportunities on the Base chain, such as its gaming sector (for example, Aavegotchi). Aavegotchi's Layer3 built on Base will launch its mainnet in Q2 of this year. It might be this month.

2. Arbitrum

The proposal vote for the "200 million ARB game catalyst plan" in the Arbitrum community should pass. This is definitely a positive for Arbitrum's gaming ecosystem (like TreasureDAO).

$MAGIC has future expectations for a Layer3. On April 22, TreasureDAO launched the Layer3 testnet, and the mainnet is expected to launch in Q3 of this year, supporting staking.

Additionally, Radiant may be influenced by LayerZero's token issuance and v3 upgrade (which I recall has been speculated several times), presenting a possibility for a short-term rise (I will most likely not participate).

II. AI

In the AI sector, I will only discuss two targets with confirmed date catalysts:

$FET

The merger will occur on 6.11/6.13, after which it will be renamed to $ASI.

$AR

Information related to $AO will be released on 6.13, and participants can mine $AO through $AR.

I personally favor $AR a bit more.

There are many other coins in the AI sector, but I won't reiterate them one by one. The market sentiment in the AI sector will change according to external environmental changes. However, I will not consider participating in $WLD.

III. Political Meme

On-chain political memes, I have only participated in $MAGA. I bought in at 35 yesterday and plan to hold for a while. I will pay attention to the sentencing hearing on 7.11 (Trump's birthday is also coming up).

The political meme on CEX is $PEOPLE, and I will set a market cap target of 1 billion USD for $PEOPLE.

For tokens with significant price volatility like this, my outlook articles may have some lag. Therefore, when we see Trump speaking to compete for crypto voters or unexpected events like the ETH ETF passing, we should realize that politics will become a mainstream narrative in the market. Entering earlier.

IV. Can Solana Break New Highs?

Initially, I thought that $SOL might be affected by the strength of $ETH (siphoning).

Now I have changed my mind: Solana's property as a memecoin casino is present (referencing those celebrity memes, most people will choose to issue memecoins on Solana), and the current market has a strong demand for memecoin gambling.

Therefore, I believe that $SOL will not be siphoned too much during this period ------ the crowd for $ETH and $SOL has already been divided, and those playing $SOL will not easily migrate to $ETH. Instead, the rise of $ETH will raise market expectations, pushing market sentiment to a high point, and Solana will be a beneficiary.

V. Others

1. Selfchain Mainnet

I was hurt by this target ($FRONT) last year, so I won't look at it.

2. Fantom Sonic

Currently, the launch of the Sonic mainnet by Fantom is a Sell News for $FTM traders. Keep an eye on AC's subsequent actions; once it is launched, there should be some activities on it (my expectation).

3. Uniswap "Launch Fee Mechanism" Vote

Has been postponed. The reason may be that some VC is pressuring Uniswap. I will keep a certain level of attention on this matter (while observing), but $UNI will most likely not participate in speculation.

4. June is also a big month for airdrops, so be mindful of the risks.