SignalPlus Volatility Column (20240426): Macroeconomic Data Exceeds Expectations
Recently, the correlation between BTC and US stocks has strengthened, with the price of BTC dipping below 63,000 during the opening phase of the US market, attracting a large number of buy orders for the 59,000-P and 60,000-P options for the following week.
Yesterday (25 APR), the U.S. first-quarter GDP was significantly below expectations, while the PCE price index rebounded sharply to 3.7%, indicating that the PCE inflation index to be released tonight is likely to be higher than previous market forecasts. Weak economic output combined with rising prices has impacted risk sentiment, leading to declines in the three major indices. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, sensitive to interest rate policy, briefly surged to 5.016% before gradually retreating to below 5.0% during the day. Federal Reserve's Goolsbee stated that after a series of higher-than-expected inflation data, the Fed must "readjust" and "must wait and observe."
Source: TradingView
In terms of digital currencies, the correlation between BTC and U.S. stocks has strengthened recently, with the price dipping below 63000 during the U.S. market opening, attracting a large number of buy orders for BTC next week 59000-P and 60000-P. In the derivatives market, BTC trading distribution has shifted towards the long term, with OTM Call Spread trades and several triangular spread strategies showing a bet on upward potential; ETH is mostly focused on bullish options purchases, distributed around the strike prices near 0.25 Delta for 17 MAY 24 and 28 JUN 24.
Source: Deribit (as of 26 APR 16:00 UTC+8)
Source: SignalPlus
Data Source: Deribit, overall ETH trading distribution
Data Source: Deribit, overall BTC trading distribution
Source: Deribit Block Trade
Source: Deribit Block Trade
