SignalPlus Macro Analysis: BTC Approaches $60,000, Market FOMO Sentiment Soars
Yesterday, the market was relatively calm, with mixed economic data and asset prices consolidating within recent ranges. In terms of cryptocurrencies, prices continued to rise, with nearly $300 million in BTC futures shorts liquidated over the past day and a half. As the cryptocurrency market cap returned above $2 trillion, ETF trading volumes, excluding GBTC, also reached new highs in the past few days.
Yesterday, the market was relatively calm, with mixed economic data and asset prices consolidating within recent ranges. The Richmond Fed manufacturing index rebounded by 10 points to -5, mainly due to a surge in current and future employment indices, while the growth rate of prices paid fell from 4.2% to 3.5%. On the other hand, U.S. durable goods orders plummeted by 6.1% month-on-month, marking the largest decline since April 2020, primarily due to a 16.2% drop in orders for transportation durable goods (aircraft). Additionally, the consumer confidence index was significantly below expectations, with both the present situation and expectations indices, as well as the employment category, showing weakness. In summary, although the U.S. economy is undoubtedly still strong, we may be approaching a short-term peak in positive data, and we might see some weakening in employment data ahead.
This Friday marks the deadline for a partial "shutdown" of the U.S. government. If politicians decide to drag things out to the last minute again, a larger-scale shutdown could be faced on March 8. It is expected that the details of the funding bill will be resolved in the coming days, and a continuing resolution may be an option, which would increase the overall risk of news next week.
In the cryptocurrency space, prices continue to rise. In the past day and a half, the amount of short liquidations in BTC futures has approached $300 million, as the cryptocurrency market cap returns above $2 trillion. Trading volumes for ETFs, excluding GBTC, have also reached new highs in recent days. Market FOMO is high, with various altcoins rebounding, and the spread between futures and spot prices is widening.
As expected, cryptocurrency volatility has surged, with 1-week to 1-month volatility levels around 57-61%. Traders seem to be caught in a short-gamma predicament as spot prices explode, but as prices approach $60k, short-term put options are also starting to rebound.
