Data Interpretation: The crypto bull market has started in 2023, what will happen next?
All investor groups are accumulating Bitcoin.Original Author: NANCY LUBALE
Compiled by: Deep Tide TechFlow
People are becoming increasingly optimistic about the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, with the upcoming BTC halving and positive market sentiment indicating that a cryptocurrency bull market will begin in 2023.
Despite the lack of hope for a recovery in the crypto market at the beginning of 2023, the events that have unfolded this year have surprised most market participants, with prices of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and many other altcoins soaring. The high volatility of the crypto market seems to be intensifying, and a bull market is expected in 2024.
The global cryptocurrency market capitalization has reached $1.69 trillion, up 112% over the past 12 months. The prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum have risen by 154% and 93%, respectively. Among altcoins, this growth is even more pronounced, with Solana and Avalanche (AVAX) rising by 880% and 250% during the same period.
The main factors driving the rise in cryptocurrency prices include the increasing probability of approval for spot Bitcoin ETFs, the successful upgrade of the Ethereum network in Shanghai, and the Bitcoin halving.
Increased Probability of Approval for Spot Bitcoin ETFs
In the United States, discussions about Bitcoin ETFs are heating up.
According to Bloomberg's ETF analysis, the probability of a spot BTC ETF being approved before January 10 (the final statutory deadline for the SEC to make decisions on some applications) is 90%. 
If approved, such ETFs could attract more institutional investors into the space, positively impacting not only BTC but also the prices of other cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin advocate Michael Saylor (founder of MicroStrategy) stated that the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF could be the biggest development on Wall Street in thirty years.
All Investor Groups Are Accumulating Bitcoin
Bitcoin holders are showing confidence in BTC by increasing their holdings. On-chain data from Glassnode shows a reversal of the trend, with long-term holders optimistic about the prospects of a Bitcoin bull market, thus continuing to accumulate.
Tracking the balance of long-term holders has been a strong indicator for determining price tops and bottoms. In every market cycle, the accumulation by holders can be clearly seen until local prices peak, at which point holders begin to sell off significantly to realize profits.
More importantly, Bitcoin whales holding at least 1,000 BTC are showing signs of accumulation, which historically has been a sign that precedes significant rebounds.
According to a report released by Glassnode on November 27, the accumulation trend score for Bitcoin is currently at 1, indicating that, overall, Bitcoin whales are buying Bitcoin.
Notable Bitcoin whale MicroStrategy has continued to increase its Bitcoin holdings, bringing its total to 189,150 BTC after purchasing an additional 14,620 BTC at an average price of $42,110 per Bitcoin. 
Glassnode's data also shows that smaller investors have set accumulation records for Bitcoin in 2023, continuously refreshing historical highs.
As in previous cycles, this ongoing accumulation is a potential indicator that the cryptocurrency market has not yet reached its price peak.
Bitcoin Halving and Historical Data Highlight Potential
The price trend of Bitcoin often exhibits cyclical patterns. Analysts have compared the current price trajectory with historical patterns, suggesting that the current situation may resemble the potential bull market cycles of 2013 and 2017.
Similarly, Bitcoin's historical bull markets tend to follow a four-year cycle, typically driven by events such as Bitcoin halving, which reduces the rate at which miners create and earn new Bitcoins.
The next halving event is expected to occur in the spring of 2024, and past data indicates that bull markets may begin a few months before the halving event and continue until Bitcoin prices reach new all-time highs. 
In fact, with less than six months until the halving event, more people are predicting that BTC's price will reach six figures.
Crypto Market Sentiment Continues to Rise
Recently, the social media sphere has witnessed a resurgence of positive sentiment. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is a barometer of investor sentiment, currently scoring 73, indicating that the market is generally in a state of greed. 
Notably, this index has remained above 50 for most of 2023, suggesting that market participants have a positive outlook on the broader crypto market.
This pattern of market sentiment has historically been a precursor to price increases and may indicate an upcoming bull market. Interestingly, the last time market sentiment reached such a level of greed was in November 2021, when Bitcoin hit its ATH of $69,000.
Technical Indicators Also Reflect Bullish Sentiment Among Traders
On October 23, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies broke above the 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), reaching $1.1 trillion, and as of the time of writing, the total market cap has reached $1.632 trillion. Buyers may have set their sights on the peak range of $2.168 trillion from April 2022. Technical traders look for these key indicators before anticipating a reversal.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the global cryptocurrency market capitalization has entered the overbought territory, nearing the resistance level of 80, which strengthens the dominance of bulls in the market. The EMA has also formed a bullish crossover on the weekly chart. 
Furthermore, if buyers establish support above the $1.75 trillion mark with strong trading volume, the three-month upward trend could extend into 2024.
