Analysis: Multiple key indicators suggest that the current adjustment of Bitcoin may have ended
ChainCatcher news, according to Cointelegraph, despite Bitcoin's recent drop of 30% from its historical high of $109,350, reaching a four-month low of $76,700 on March 11, four key indicators suggest that this round of adjustment may have ended.First, the current adjustment is fundamentally different from the bear market in November 2021. During the 2021 bear market, Bitcoin plummeted 41% from $69,000 to $40,560 within 60 days, while the current adjustment is more similar to the 31.5% pullback in June 2024. A true bear market requires at least a 40% decline, which has not yet been reached.Second, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen from 109.2 at the beginning of 2025 to 104, contrasting sharply with the strengthening of the dollar during the bear market at the end of 2021. Analysts point out that Bitcoin typically shows an inverse correlation with the dollar index, and the current weakening of the dollar is favorable for stabilizing Bitcoin prices.Third, the derivatives market shows healthy signs. Despite a 19% price drop from March 2 to March 11, the annualized premium for Bitcoin futures remains at 4.5%, well above the negative premium levels seen during the bear market in June 2022. Meanwhile, the funding rate for perpetual contracts is close to zero, indicating a balance in long and short leverage demand, with no excessive short-selling demand typical of a bear market.Fourth, market concerns are primarily focused on the potential government shutdown in the U.S. on March 15 and the bubble risk in the artificial intelligence sector. Several publicly traded companies with market capitalizations exceeding $150 billion have significantly pulled back from their highs, including Tesla (-54%), Nvidia (-34%), and TSMC (-26%). This risk sentiment has led to a short-term adjustment in Bitcoin.Additionally, early warning signs of a crisis in the U.S. real estate market may accelerate the flow of funds into scarce assets. Analysts believe that factors such as the weakening dollar, historical data indicating that a 30% price adjustment is insufficient to determine a bear market, the resilience of the Bitcoin derivatives market, market volatility due to government shutdown risks, and signs of a crisis in the real estate market will all support Bitcoin's return to the $90,000 level.Currently, Bitcoin has rebounded from its lows, and market participants are closely monitoring the progress of negotiations on the U.S. debt ceiling. There are divisions within the Republican Party regarding defense and immigration spending issues. If an agreement is reached, the risk asset market, including Bitcoin, may respond positively.