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BTC $79,253.12 -1.57%
ETH $2,253.46 -2.11%
BNB $670.76 -1.08%
XRP $1.43 -0.99%
SOL $90.67 -3.98%
TRX $0.3541 +0.88%
DOGE $0.1133 +0.51%
ADA $0.2641 -2.45%
BCH $432.32 -1.30%
LINK $10.24 -2.39%
HYPE $39.22 -0.27%
AAVE $96.34 -1.43%
SUI $1.19 -3.09%
XLM $0.1586 -2.61%
ZEC $518.98 -5.60%

pan

Delphi Digital analyzes the marginal changes in the Bitcoin financing model strategy, with STRC becoming a key expansion engine but risks rising simultaneously

The cryptocurrency research institution Delphi Digital released the latest report "How Far Can Saylor Stretch It," which systematically analyzes the Bitcoin (BTC) funding expansion mechanism of Strategy, pointing out that its financing structure is transitioning from "low-cost accumulation" to the "diminishing marginal efficiency" stage. The report shows that in the current asset accumulation system centered around Bitcoin, STRC has become the core financing tool for Strategy's continuous purchase of BTC. Initially, it relied on a significant premium in MSTR's stock price (mNAV far exceeding BTC's net value) to achieve a positive cycle of "issuance leads to accumulation," but as the valuation has fallen back to about 1.24 times the EV-based mNAV, the BTC per share enhancement effect from common stock issuance is nearing breakeven.At the same time, while convertible bond tools have played an important role historically, they have accumulated about $8.2 billion in principal and will face concentrated repayment pressure after September 2027, putting long-term sustainability of the financing structure under pressure. STRC provides a continuous financing source for Strategy by offering approximately 11.5% annualized monthly dividends to income-oriented investors, to maintain the pace of BTC purchases. However, this mechanism also introduces ongoing cash flow obligations, meaning that each round of financing increases BTC assets while simultaneously accumulating future dividend burdens.The report emphasizes key risk scenarios: if BTC prices remain stagnant and MSTR's premium fails to recover, then the "STRC financing purchase gain" may be gradually offset by "common stock dilution and dividend obligations." Although the company's approximately $2.25 billion cash reserves can cover about $1 billion in redemption pressure in 2027, larger-scale debt and dividend structures in 2028 still need to be addressed. Additionally, the current authorized issuance limit of about $28.3 billion for STRC becomes a critical constraint point. Once the limit is reached, the ability to purchase new BTC may slow down, but existing dividend obligations will continue to exist, thus altering the overall BTC per share dynamic growth path.

Analysis: Bitcoin is still in a strong expansion range, with multiple on-chain and funding indicators confirming a comprehensive bullish momentum

Despite Bitcoin's pullback of about 2.5% since reaching a peak of $82,800, market analysts generally believe that its overall upward structure remains intact and has re-entered the "full bull market momentum" range. Swiss wealth management firm Swissblock pointed out that Bitcoin has re-entered the price expansion range, the Bull Market Support Band has turned into support, and the 21-week EMA has crossed above the 20-week SMA, with the trend structure turning bullish again. Currently, Bitcoin's price is consolidating around $80,000, where the "real market average" and short-term holding costs constitute key support, while the realized price around $85,000 forms an upper pressure zone.Whale and institutional-led spot buying are strengthening, while the proportion of derivative speculation is decreasing. Similar structures historically correspond to sustainable upward trends. If this indicator continues to maintain positive values, it may further drive Bitcoin to continue its upward cycle. In terms of liquidity, the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) has rebounded from historical lows to a key range, indicating that stablecoin funds are flowing back into the market. This signal has corresponded to phase bottom rebounds in mid-2021, 2022, and mid-2023. Meanwhile, the Binance stablecoin supply ratio oscillation indicator (SSR Oscillator) has risen to 2.8, reaching a 12-month high, showing a significant increase in stablecoin purchasing power.On-chain activity is also strengthening. Bitcoin's daily transaction volume has increased by 116%, reaching 831,400 transactions, a 20-month high; the number of active addresses has increased by 7.1% to 707,700, and total transaction fees have grown by 37% to $279,300, indicating a significant increase in network usage activity. In terms of funding structure, the 90-day spot Taker CVD has turned into a sustained positive value, indicating that spot buying is dominating the market. Glassnode data shows that this indicator has further risen to $62 million compared to a week ago, reflecting an increase in market proactive buying sentiment.In summary, the price structure, liquidity indicators, and on-chain demand all indicate that Bitcoin is currently still in a "strong trend expansion phase," and the bull market momentum has not yet ended.

Wintermute: This increase is clearly driven by leverage, with a surge in open contracts accompanied by a decline in spot trading volume

Wintermute released a weekly market summary stating that the U.S. stock market continued its strong performance, recording a sixth consecutive week of gains, with the Nasdaq index rising 4.5% and the S&P 500 index rising 2.3%, both reaching all-time highs, while small-cap stocks and tech giants strengthened simultaneously. Non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, with the unemployment rate stable at 4.3%, showcasing a resilient labor market. Despite the turmoil in the Strait of Hormuz, the market viewed it as noise, and the war premium has significantly receded. Iran-U.S. negotiations have returned to square one, with Iran's demands for sovereignty, compensation, and sanctions relief being directly rejected by Trump. This week's CPI data will test the transmission of energy prices to inflation, and with Powell's term ending and Waller taking over, the Fed's June FOMC dot plot will be closely watched.In terms of crypto assets, Bitcoin broke through the $80,000 mark, reaching a peak of around $83,000, marking its first time above the 200-day moving average (for the first time in seven months), but this rise was clearly driven by leverage: open interest surged by $10 billion in one month, while spot trading volume hit a two-year low, indicating a typical short squeeze rather than a healthy breakout. Institutional funding remains supportive, with ETF net inflows of $623 million and trading platform reserves hitting a seven-year low, but short-term risks are high—RSI has entered the overbought zone, and if the squeeze ends without spot trading picking up, Bitcoin's price could quickly retreat.Altcoins have shifted towards personalized narratives, with tokenization and AI computing sectors performing prominently. Overall, in the crypto market, this round of rebound needs to be quickly validated as a true bull market starting point: currently driven mainly by the stock market and leverage resonance, if CPI rises or the Fed's leadership change brings uncertainty, whether Bitcoin can independently hold above $80,000 will become a key confirmation signal.
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