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first_img ARK Invest Digital Asset Research Director: USDe scale is expected to expand to 40 billion USD

ARK Invest's Director of Digital Asset Research Lorenzo Valente published a discussion on the synthetic dollar protocol Ethena: tokenized stocks are changing the landscape in which ENA operates. He stated that the supply of USDe had bottomed out at $3.8 billion and has now risen by about 30%, recovering to nearly $5 billion.Lorenzo Valente: The inverted or low funding rates in the crypto market have forced more USDe collateral to shift towards off-chain yields such as government bonds, with sUSDe's average annualized rate once approaching or falling below SOFR; the market capitalization has remained stable over the long term, and the open interest has also limited the pace of expansion. He noted that basis trading has rebounded to about 20% of the collateral and is growing rapidly, with the U.S. stock market size at approximately $70 trillion, averaging over 8% annual growth. Continued bullish demand is expected to bring sustained positive funding rates, with lower stock volatility and lower hedging costs.He believes this is the first clear path for USDe to expand its supply to over $20 billion, and reaching $30 billion to $40 billion in the next 12 to 18 months would not be surprising, as the upper limit has shifted from crypto open interest to tokenized stock open interest. He also mentioned that Ethena's infrastructure and operations have been validated, and it is expected that Ethena Pay will further drive USDe from the demand side, with the chains, protocols, and vaults supporting USDe's supply and circulation strategies becoming the main beneficiaries.

first_img BPI questions MSCI's non-operating company rules, Strategy and Metaplanet may be removed from the index

According to Cointelegraph, the Bitcoin Policy Institute (BPI) released a research report questioning the process by which MSCI established its latest index rules. MSCI had previously listed companies such as Strategy and Metaplanet as potential "non-operating companies," which could lead to their removal from the index.MSCI first proposed excluding digital asset treasury companies from global indices in 2025, but after facing opposition, it shelved the plan in January and opted for a broader review of "non-operating companies." On August 3, MSCI put forward a broader proposal that could still result in the exclusion of Strategy and Metaplanet. In a report titled "The Invisible Committee of Wall Street," BPI pointed out that metadata shows the presentation MSCI consulted is stored in an internal folder specifically for digital asset treasury companies.According to the proposal, MSCI will first assess whether a company has a significant amount of operational assets before applying five additional financial tests. Its own simulations indicate that Strategy, Metaplanet, and uranium investment company Yellow Cake would be excluded. In 2025, JPMorgan analysts estimated that if Strategy were excluded, it could face an outflow of approximately $2.8 billion. BPI also questioned MSCI's reliance on "operational assets," stating that the term is not a standardized balance sheet category under U.S. GAAP or IFRS. MSCI concluded its opinion collection on September 30 and is expected to announce results on or before October 16, with related changes set to take effect during the index review in November 2026.

Michael Saylor: Strategy and Strive, as Bitcoin treasury companies, are not in zero-sum competition and can jointly expand the digital credit market

Founder of Strategy Michael Saylor posted that he hopes Strive and all well-managed "Bitcoin-driven digital credit" issuers achieve success.Strategy is built on the same foundation as Strive: BTC belongs to digital capital, STRC and SATA belong to digital credit, and MSTR and ASST belong to digital equity. The securities structures and decisions of both parties are independent, although they will compete for individual capital allocations, they can also jointly expand long-term market opportunities.Saylor cited SIFMA data stating that by the end of 2025, the global stock market value will reach $157.8 trillion, and the fixed income debt balance will reach $160.7 trillion, with 0.1% of either market being approximately $160 billion.He proposed a threefold amplification mechanism: corporate financing to purchase supply-constrained Bitcoin can increase demand and improve the asset coverage of related companies; more issuers launching digital credit products can accumulate research, trading, and liquidity foundations, reducing the premium investors demand due to unfamiliarity, and potentially narrowing credit spreads and financing costs; more companies proving that this model can operate in different market environments may enhance market recognition of digital equity.He also emphasized that a single purchase does not guarantee Bitcoin appreciation, Bitcoin itself does not pay interest, and the profit margin between long-term asset returns and financing costs must be obtained through disciplined management; more issuers will not automatically lead to higher valuations.This model depends on a robust capital structure, prudent liquidity, transparent disclosure, and useful products. Weak issuers may undermine confidence in the entire category, while more credible issuers can meet institutional diversification investment needs and attract funds that would not otherwise enter the category.

Institutional capital inflow coexists with market deleveraging, Gate continues to expand multi-asset trading capabilities

According to Gate's latest institutional weekly report, from September 21 to 27, the decline in oil prices and the easing of trade risks provided some support for U.S. stocks and crypto assets. However, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond broke above 5%, and the high interest rate environment continues to put pressure on the valuations of risk assets. In terms of capital, the weekly net inflows for BTC and ETH ETFs were approximately $2.386 billion and $690 million, respectively, while the supply of stablecoins increased by about $1.59 billion, indicating a rebound in institutional capital and on-chain liquidity.The market trading structure remains differentiated. The weekly trading volume on Gate TradFi is about $100 billion, maintaining a high level overall; on-chain funds are further concentrated in structural opportunities such as USDC and SOL LST. In the derivatives sector, BTC rose 4.06% weekly, but the open interest across exchanges decreased by 12.81%, with funding rates turning negative temporarily, and options open interest significantly contracting, indicating signs of deleveraging in the market as prices rebound.Against the backdrop of continuous changes in capital flows and market structure, Gate institutions are continuously improving the multi-asset trading system, covering spot, contracts, stocks, ETFs, options, and other TradFi assets. They are also promoting API trading, cross-platform execution, and settlement collaboration based on infrastructures like OES and CrossEx, providing support for institutions to participate in cross-market trading and diversified asset allocation.
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