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Viewpoint: The dilemma of high valuations in cryptocurrency projects may persist until this summer, and new projects will face a decline of over 80% upon launch

ChainCatcher news, crypto blogger AB Kuai.Dong pointed out that the current crypto market is generally facing a liquidity shortage issue, except for Bitcoin. Many projects are forced to issue tokens at high prices due to overvaluation in the last round, in order to avoid early investors' rights protection. It is expected that new projects launched this year may face a decline of over 80%, with a $2 billion initial offering potentially dropping to $300 million, and a $700 million project possibly falling below $100 million. Projects with a market cap below $100 million that have not opened TGE node sales and public offerings face relatively less pressure, and this phenomenon may continue until the summer of 2025.Analysis indicates that not only retail investors but also institutions and node purchasers are adopting short-selling strategies for hedging after new coins are launched. The crypto VC industry may undergo a restructuring from the second half of 2025 to 2026. Influenced by the excessive returns of 2020-2021, a large influx of funds has led to investment managers' salaries rising to over $5,000 per month. As five-year funds are about to expire, some funds may be unable to complete a new round of fundraising due to investment returns falling short of expectations, leading to potential large-scale layoffs and salary cuts in the industry.

He Yi: Even if Binance does not launch new projects, funds will still be diverted due to activities like meme coins and on-chain low-quality tokens

ChainCatcher message, in response to Binance's recent rapid listing frequency and the bulk introduction of large-cap VC projects to the market, which has led to liquidity issues, Binance co-founder He Yi stated that the crypto market is a free market where liquidity and trading volume are shared among all trading platforms. Even if Binance does not list new projects, these projects still exist, and funds will be diverted to the entire industry.In addition to the unlocking of VC-invested projects, meme coins, on-chain shitcoins, yield farming, and Ponzi schemes will also divert liquidity. After the approval of ETFs, traditional financial market funds will also flow directly into the crypto space.She pointed out that some VCs do indeed lead to inflated prices, but VCs generally have a 7-year lock-up period, with the unlocking period usually one year after the TGE, so many VCs are also going bankrupt. Projects that secure large financing have more opportunities to navigate through the bubble cycle, but the price and governance model are determined by the project parties, which requires in-depth analysis.He Yi also mentioned that the rise of DeFi has increased market liquidity and freedom, making it more difficult for CEXs to set rules, which is precisely the charm of the free market in the crypto space. She reminded everyone to do their own research (DYOR).
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