high-position

On-chain analyst Murphy stated that the average cost of all loss-making Bitcoin chips has currently fallen below $100,000, now at only $93,600. This means that under the current chip structure, BTC will reach the market average breakeven point when it rises back to $93,000. During the two rapid declines at the end of last year and the beginning of this year, a large number of high-position trapped chips chose to cut losses and exit, lowering the average cost of overall floating loss chips.It is also observed that the average cost of loss-making chips has a deviation coefficient of 1.4 compared to the current 30-day average price of BTC, while in the past three bear market bottoms, the deviation coefficient has exceeded 2 at least. When the average deviation coefficient is greater than or equal to 2, it indicates that the market has entered an absolute bottom range, at which point the price of BTC is less than 50% of the average cost of loss-making chips. To meet this condition, the lowest point of BTC in this round would need to drop to $46,800, but historical patterns may not always hold true. This bear market may be less painful than any previous bear market. According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the market related to whether Bitcoin will reach $60,000 or $80,000 first on Polymarket, the probability of reaching $60,000 first is 68%, while the probability of reaching $80,000 first is 32%.

According to market news, trader 0xa43d opened a long position at the peak price of Ethereum and lost 3.24 million dollars within just 14 hours. After the price of ETH dropped, the trader partially closed the position, realizing a loss of 5.835 million dollars, but still holds a long position of 11,793 ETH (worth about 37.6 million dollars), with an unrealized loss of 2.66 million dollars.

ChainCatcher news, according to crypto analyst Ai Yi @ai_9684's monitoring, the address starting with 0xE58 purchased 1,337 ETH at an average price of $4,141 between October 2021 and February 2022, with a maximum drawdown of up to 74.4% during that period, only breaking even last month. The address deposited 1,427 ETH to Binance 4 hours ago, worth approximately $6.44 million, and if sold, it will realize a profit of about $501,000.

ChainCatcher news reports that on social media, on-chain data analyst Murphy published statistics stating that the cost basis for ETH accumulated from January to February 2025 is roughly between $3,200 and $3,500. A cluster of addresses has been intensively accumulating at $3,475, totaling 1.66 million ETH. This group did not sell during the drop of ETH to $1,900 and instead added to their positions, currently holding 1.94 million ETH with a reduced cost basis of $3,150.Additionally, the cost basis for the chips accumulated in mid-February 2025 is approximately between $2,600 and $2,800. This group started to cut losses as the ETH price fell below $2,300, and currently, only the chips at $2,800 and $2,630 remain unchanged, holding 1 million and 850,000 ETH respectively.As the price of the coin continues to decline, new demand for ETH has gradually weakened, especially after the price fell below $2,000, where data shows there is almost no new purchasing power.Murphy explains that the high-position trapped chips, after a series of self-rescue replenishments, now seem to have exhausted their purchasing power; the current price of $1,850 is the cost price for large holders who accumulated two years ago. When the price drops to this level, they start to replenish (buying back parts sold at high positions to average down costs), thus forming a support effect. If this price level cannot provide support, the decline may reach $1,600 and $1,250, which are the "remaining support levels from three years ago's accumulation."From the overall behavior of current investors, the most important factor is still the reconstruction of consensus on ETH's value. If an effective consensus cannot be formed, the currently trapped chips at high positions of $2,630 (850,000), $2,800 (1 million), and $3,150 (1.945 million) will all become significant obstacles on the path to recovery.