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Bitcoin's pullback impacts treasury companies, TD Cowen lowers Nakamoto's target price by 58% but maintains a "buy" rating

Wall Street investment bank TD Cowen has lowered the target price for Bitcoin treasury company Nakamoto Inc. (NASDAQ: NAKA), reducing the split-adjusted target price from $40 to $17, a decrease of 58%, but still maintaining a "Buy" rating. TD Cowen analysts stated that this adjustment is mainly due to the pressure on Nakamoto's highly leveraged capital structure from the decline in Bitcoin prices.Although the new target price still implies about a 275% upside from the current stock price of $4.65, the company's stock is highly sensitive to fluctuations in Bitcoin prices. TD Cowen expects Bitcoin to rebound to $100,000 by the end of 2026, which is about 25% lower than the historical high of $126,000 set last October. At the same time, the firm anticipates that Nakamoto will suspend further Bitcoin purchases before 2027.Analysts pointed out that Nakamoto's core value still comes from its Bitcoin assets, with the company currently holding 4,467 BTC, valued at approximately $290 million, ranking 22nd among publicly listed companies in terms of Bitcoin holdings. However, the company's debt and preferred stock financing structure have also compressed the asset value available to common stockholders. Recently, Nakamoto has completed several financial adjustments, including repaying approximately $45 million in debt, extending the principal of $105 million to June 2027, reducing financing costs, and approving a $25 million stock buyback plan. Additionally, the company has closed its previously operated medical clinic business and will focus on Bitcoin media, asset management, and consulting services in the future. Data shows that NAKA's stock price has fallen over 71% this year, while Bitcoin has declined about 26% during the same period. Market attention is shifting from "continuously purchasing BTC" to the asset-liability structure and financing capabilities of Bitcoin treasury companies.

first_img Analysis: The significant net outflow of BTC spot ETFs from May to July reflects the absence of institutional buying, and the market may have entered the clearing tail end

On-chain data analyst Murphy stated that this cycle is significantly different from the past due to the influx of traditional institutional funds brought in by the BTC spot ETF. He pointed out that the net flow of the ETF essentially records the subscription and redemption results of authorized participants (AP) in the primary market. It will only translate into net inflows or outflows in the data when the selling pressure in the secondary market continues to push the ETF price away from its net asset value and exceeds the arbitrage cost line.Murphy analyzed the data from glassnode and noted that from January to February, the market showed "high trading volume + slight net outflow," indicating that although there was obvious panic selling at that time, there was still a large amount of buying support. In contrast, from May to July, the market exhibited "low trading volume + significant net outflow." The more core signal was not a significant increase in selling pressure, but rather the absence of marginal buying, leading to the ETF consistently trading at a discount and resulting in AP redemptions.He believes that this stage is more likely to reflect a second round of "surrender" at the institutional level, which typically belongs to the tail-end clearing pattern of the market, and judges that this may provide new layout opportunities for retail investors, although the duration cannot be clearly determined by the current data.

Famous traders have closed all their cryptocurrency short positions and have started buying Bitcoin spot again

Well-known crypto trader Doctor Profit stated that he has closed all cryptocurrency short positions, including a Bitcoin short position established in the $115,000 to $125,000 range, another Bitcoin short position established in the $79,000 to $82,000 range, and over 100 altcoin short positions opened in the past few months, claiming that these positions have all achieved significant profits.He also mentioned that he has re-entered Bitcoin spot at $64,000, marking his first long allocation since September 2025. His plan is to invest 5% of the planned funds daily for spot purchases when Bitcoin is in the $54,000 to $64,000 range, continuing for a maximum of 20 days; if the price approaches $54,000, he will increase the buying intensity. Doctor Profit believes that there is a clear "herd behavior" in the current market: investors who were previously bullish at high levels up to $150,000 are now generally waiting for Bitcoin to drop to $40,000 to $50,000, viewing September or October as the bottom of the four-year cycle. When a large number of investors are waiting for the same price and time point, the market may not operate according to this expectation, which is why he chose to build positions in advance, judging that this round of bottom may appear earlier than the market generally expects.He also listed regulatory clarity, asset tokenization infrastructure, and institutional adoption progress as structural reasons for the shift to buying, and retracted his previous prediction that Bitcoin would drop to $40,000 to $50,000. However, he still retains all short positions in the S&P 500 index, believing that the crypto market has undergone significant repricing, while U.S. stock valuations remain relatively high.
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