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VanEck: Bitcoin has triggered 8 surrender indicators, and the real buying advantage may need to wait for a one-year cycle

According to CoinDesk, the latest report from asset management company VanEck shows that Bitcoin has currently triggered 8 out of 12 market capitulation indicators, indicating that the market is approaching the historical bear market bottom area, but the related signals do not mean that the price has bottomed out. These indicators mainly measure the market status of Bitcoin during extreme sell-off phases, including the extent of price retracement from highs, miner profitability, and the proportion of holders at a loss. Over the past three months, all 12 indicators have reached the triggering range.VanEck pointed out that Bitcoin's previous rounds of major bottoms experienced maximum declines of approximately 94%, 85%, 84%, and 78%, during which the market lacked support from spot ETF funds, institutional holdings were relatively small, and there were impacts from major industry events such as Celsius and FTX. In contrast, the market structure has changed this time. From a cyclical perspective, VanEck has compiled 4 complete Bitcoin cycles since 2011 and found that bear markets typically last about 11 months on average from peak to trough; if excluding the special cycle of 2011, the average is about 12.7 months. Currently, Bitcoin has entered the 10th month since its peak in October 2025, and the next potential accumulation window may appear between September and November of this year.VanEck concluded that the current capitulation indicators are more suitable as tools for long-term investors to assess the cycle position rather than short-term bottom-fishing signals. Historical data shows that the advantages of investing based on these indicators are mainly reflected within a one-year cycle, and the market may continue to fluctuate in the coming months.

Analysis: Bitcoin soars to an 11-week high, possibly due to the U.S. Treasury increasing its bond buyback

According to Cointelegraph, driven by the U.S. Treasury's expansion of the national debt repurchase scale and improved market liquidity expectations, Bitcoin surged significantly after the U.S. stock market opened on Wednesday, reaching its highest level since June 2.Previously, the U.S. Treasury announced that starting from September 9, it would expand the scale of long-term national debt repurchase operations, increasing the single repurchase limit from $2 billion to at least $4 billion. This move is seen by the market as providing more liquidity support to the long-term bond market, pushing risk assets to rise broadly.As a result of the news, the yield on U.S. 30-year Treasury bonds quickly fell, decreasing about 9 basis points from its nearly 20-year high to 5.19%. The U.S. Treasury stated that the expansion of the repurchase scale aims to meet the persistent investor demand in the long-term national debt market and enhance market liquidity.However, analysts pointed out that this repurchase does not reduce U.S. debt but rather adjusts the maturity structure of the national debt. As the U.S. government debt approaches $40 trillion, the market remains focused on fiscal pressure and the risks of rising interest expenditures.Bitfinex stated that although Bitcoin has rebounded recently, the upside potential is still limited by insufficient liquidity in stablecoins. Data shows that since May, the supply of stablecoins on exchanges has decreased by about $14 billion. Additionally, on-chain data indicates that the stablecoin supply ratio (SSR), which measures the relationship between Bitcoin's market value and the total market value of stablecoins, has been rising recently, from 9.82 on June 30 to 11.69, indicating that the market liquidity environment remains tight.Analysts believe that the improved expectations for U.S. fiscal liquidity may provide short-term support for Bitcoin and risk assets, but the lack of significant inflows of stablecoin funds means that further increases will still require more capital confirmation.

first_img Ansem launched the on-chain index z500, and the team can airdrop to $ANSEM holders and buy back for destruction

KOL Ansem (@blknoiz06) announced the launch of the first on-chain index z500 on Ansem.io. The protocol allows new project teams to airdrop a portion of their token supply to $ANSEM holders at the time of token issuance, and to demonstrate long-term alignment intentions by buying and burning $ANSEM, thereby improving their ranking on the z500 leaderboard. $ANSEM holders only need to hold one token to gain exposure to multiple successful projects through automatic airdrops.Ansem stated that Pump.fun solved the token creation problem but has yet to address the filtering and curation issues. z500 requires teams to invest value upfront (such as buying and burning $ANSEM) to enhance transparency and filter long-term projects, reducing bundled sell-offs and quick exits. The leaderboard will showcase teams that buy and burn the most $ANSEM and those with the best market performance of airdropped tokens. Ansem claims it will actively share the top projects on the list and noted that the market cap of $ANSEM has risen from about $200,000 to over $200 million since its takeover.This mechanism aims to flip the creator economy model, allowing brands to deliver value directly to $ANSEM holders instead of paying KOLs who might sell off, thus providing productized alignment marketing for quality teams while enhancing network effects.

The Hyperliquid USDC reserve income sharing mechanism will launch on August 26, with an expected annual contribution of $200 million to buy back HYPE

The AQAv2 stablecoin model protocol of Hyperliquid has previously received support from 19 out of 26 validators, and the relevant mechanism is expected to officially start accruing yields on August 26. Meanwhile, Circle has transferred approximately $4.4 billion USDC to Coinbase via the AQAv2 mechanism on HyperEVM, setting a record for the largest single USDC transfer on HyperEVM.If everything proceeds as planned, the yields generated by AQAv2 will begin accruing on August 26, with the first payment expected to enter the Assistance Fund on October 3. AQAv2 (Aligned Quote Asset v2) is a stablecoin mechanism announced by Hyperliquid in May this year, allowing stablecoins, including USDC, which are not exclusively issued by Hyperliquid, to qualify as "Aligned." According to public information, most of the stablecoin yields from AQAv2 will be returned to the Hyperliquid ecosystem, with 90% of the yields allocated to the relevant mechanism, and subsequently, 100% used for the buyback and destruction of HYPE tokens.Coinbase has been designated as the fund deployment party, while Circle is responsible for technical deployment, and both parties will also stake HYPE to participate in the mechanism. The mechanism previously required stablecoins to be exclusive assets of Hyperliquid, but AQAv2 has removed this restriction and will focus on the HIP-4 standardized market and the perpetual contract market operated by validators. According to relevant public disclosures, AQAv2 is expected to generate up to approximately $200 million in revenue and further enhance token value capture through the HYPE buyback and destruction mechanism.

Garrett Jin: Hynix has rebounded to the profit-taking zone, planning to buy on Bitcoin's pullback, and be cautious of the remaining unlocks after SpaceX's short squeeze

Garrett Jin released this week's market report, characterizing the rebound in the South Korean market as a wide-ranging fluctuation rather than a new trend. SK Hynix rebounded continuously after retesting the 1.42 million won area, closing up 5.9% at 1,593,000 won. The KOSPI has risen 20% from the July low, entering a technical bull market, but foreign capital has not shifted to long-term holdings, and the drag from leveraged ETFs remains. Garrett Jin set the first profit-taking level at $1,150 (approximately 1.63 million won), with the next target at $1,300 (1.85 million won).Garrett Jin also noted that gold recorded its strongest weekly gain since January this week at +7.8%, priced at $4,388. The driving factors were a decrease of 23,000 in July non-farm payrolls and a moderate CPI that dampened September rate hike expectations. However, it is currently overbought in the short term, and a pullback could present an opportunity for incremental accumulation. Bitcoin has shown no response to the same macro-positive factors, remaining trapped between the support at $62,500 and resistance at $65,000-$70,000, with the bottom structure since $57,700 gradually being built. Garrett Jin will wait for the next buying opportunity after a pullback.Regarding SpaceX, Garrett Jin believes the recent performance is a classic case of "bad news fully priced in + short squeeze," with the unlocking itself becoming a washout rather than the starting point of a decline. However, the unlocking window has not yet ended, with an additional 319 million shares to be unlocked, approximately 700 million shares each in September and October. The current range up to $160 is a profit-taking zone rather than a high-entry zone.
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