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Famous traders have closed all their cryptocurrency short positions and have started buying Bitcoin spot again

Well-known crypto trader Doctor Profit stated that he has closed all cryptocurrency short positions, including a Bitcoin short position established in the $115,000 to $125,000 range, another Bitcoin short position established in the $79,000 to $82,000 range, and over 100 altcoin short positions opened in the past few months, claiming that these positions have all achieved significant profits.He also mentioned that he has re-entered Bitcoin spot at $64,000, marking his first long allocation since September 2025. His plan is to invest 5% of the planned funds daily for spot purchases when Bitcoin is in the $54,000 to $64,000 range, continuing for a maximum of 20 days; if the price approaches $54,000, he will increase the buying intensity. Doctor Profit believes that there is a clear "herd behavior" in the current market: investors who were previously bullish at high levels up to $150,000 are now generally waiting for Bitcoin to drop to $40,000 to $50,000, viewing September or October as the bottom of the four-year cycle. When a large number of investors are waiting for the same price and time point, the market may not operate according to this expectation, which is why he chose to build positions in advance, judging that this round of bottom may appear earlier than the market generally expects.He also listed regulatory clarity, asset tokenization infrastructure, and institutional adoption progress as structural reasons for the shift to buying, and retracted his previous prediction that Bitcoin would drop to $40,000 to $50,000. However, he still retains all short positions in the S&P 500 index, believing that the crypto market has undergone significant repricing, while U.S. stock valuations remain relatively high.

Data: Leverage rather than spot demand drives Bitcoin, value and momentum buyers are still on the sidelines

According to a research report by NYDIG, Bitcoin fell by 13.4% in the second quarter of 2026, with the year-to-date decline expanding to 32.9%. In contrast, the Nasdaq 100 index rose by 27.7%, and tech stocks increased by 43.5%, indicating that this round of decline is not due to macro risk aversion, but rather specific supply pressures unique to Bitcoin.The core pressure comes from Strategy (MSTR) launching the "Digital Credit Capital Framework," authorizing the sale of approximately $1.25 billion in Bitcoin to cover capital structure obligations, marking a shift of the largest historical marginal buyer from continuous accumulation to active monetization, with the DAT complex overall transitioning from a demand engine to a supply risk. In terms of ETFs, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $4.9 billion in the second quarter, but Morgan Stanley's Bitcoin Trust attracted $364.8 million in inflows against the trend, showing that distribution channels remain competitive.In the derivatives market, amid weak spot demand and continued outflows from ETFs and stablecoins, the positive funding rate combined with a rebound in open interest indicates that leveraged long positions are rebuilding, posing a risk of passive liquidation triggering a new round of declines. Bitcoin has currently fallen 54.3% from its historical high of $126,000 set on October 6, 2025, referencing the cycles of 2018 and 2022 (with a gradually narrowing decline of about 70%).

Data: Short-term Bitcoin holders still dominate buying pressure, ETF funds have seen a return but the trend reversal cannot be confirmed

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated that the recently launched "Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Realized Pressure Model" shows that the buying and selling pressure from short-term holders is slightly cooling down, but buying power remains dominant. This model measures the changes in market bullish and bearish forces by comparing the realized buying pressure and selling pressure of short-term holders. During a bear market phase, this indicator can serve as a contrarian signal: when prices approach local lows, buyers are usually more active; when approaching local highs, selling pressure tends to increase. In the past 24 hours, the model has not shown any trend reversal signals. The latest hourly data shows that the buying pressure score is 28.57, slightly down from the previous day's 28.98; the selling pressure score is 22.62, a slight decrease from the previous 22.68. Currently, buyers are still leading sellers by about 5.94 percentage points.Overall, market buying pressure has cooled down, but short-term holders still maintain a buying advantage. Meanwhile, the funding situation in the Bitcoin ETF market has slightly improved. Following eight consecutive weeks of outflows, the ETF market recently recorded a net inflow of approximately $197.4 million. However, Adler pointed out that this scale is insufficient to confirm a reversal in institutional demand trends. Currently, the 30-day fund flow momentum for ETFs remains deeply negative, at about -$4.73 billion, and the cumulative fund size has fallen from a peak of about $62 billion to around $51 billion, indicating some improvement in short-term funds, but institutional buying demand has not fully recovered. Axel Adler expects that next week the market will face several important data and events, including further developments in the Middle East situation, the impact of the US-Iran conflict on energy supply, as well as earnings reports from major US banks, speeches from Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh, the June Consumer Price Index (CPI), the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, retail sales, and real estate market data.
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