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Federal Reserve Research: Cryptocurrency investors are more driven by belief, and information about Bitcoin's rise can stimulate more buying

According to Cointelegraph, the latest research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland shows that there are significant differences between cryptocurrency investors and traditional asset investors. Their views on the future returns and risks of digital assets diverge greatly, and the information about Bitcoin's historical price increases may further encourage investors to increase their allocation willingness and actually buy crypto assets.The research paper "Do You Even Crypto, Bro? Cryptocurrencies in Household Finance" is based on multiple rounds of household survey data in the United States, with each round covering up to approximately 25,000 households.Researchers found that compared to demographic characteristics such as age, income, and gender, investors' expectations for future returns from cryptocurrencies better explain who chooses to hold crypto assets. The study shows that cryptocurrency holders expect an average return of about 22% over the next year, significantly higher than the approximately 7% expectation of non-holders.At the same time, holders generally believe that the risks of crypto assets are lower than the judgments of non-holders. Researchers found that for every 1 percentage point increase in an individual's expected return from cryptocurrencies, the probability of holding crypto assets increases by about 0.8 percentage points. The explanatory power of return expectations and risk perceptions for cryptocurrency holding behavior even exceeds that of traditional factors such as age, income, and wealth.This characteristic contrasts with traditional assets such as stocks, bonds, and gold. For traditional investment types, investors' economic backgrounds usually better explain differences in asset allocation, while the crypto market relies more on investors' subjective judgments about future price performance.In addition, the research team discovered through a randomized information experiment that simply providing investors with information about Bitcoin's price increase over the past 12 months significantly boosts their willingness to allocate to crypto assets. Data shows that respondents who saw historical performance information about Bitcoin had an approximately 2 percentage point increase in the proportion planning to allocate to crypto assets, representing about a 47% increase compared to the control group's 4.3% allocation willingness; the probability of actually purchasing crypto assets also increased by about 2.5 percentage points.The study suggests that this mechanism may explain the cyclical boom and bust phenomenon in the crypto market: price increases attract more investors, and new funds further drive up prices, thus forming a cycle of "price increase --- enhanced optimistic expectations --- more buying."

VanEck: Bitcoin has triggered 8 surrender indicators, and the real buying advantage may need to wait for a one-year cycle

According to CoinDesk, the latest report from asset management company VanEck shows that Bitcoin has currently triggered 8 out of 12 market capitulation indicators, indicating that the market is approaching the historical bear market bottom area, but the related signals do not mean that the price has bottomed out. These indicators mainly measure the market status of Bitcoin during extreme sell-off phases, including the extent of price retracement from highs, miner profitability, and the proportion of holders at a loss. Over the past three months, all 12 indicators have reached the triggering range.VanEck pointed out that Bitcoin's previous rounds of major bottoms experienced maximum declines of approximately 94%, 85%, 84%, and 78%, during which the market lacked support from spot ETF funds, institutional holdings were relatively small, and there were impacts from major industry events such as Celsius and FTX. In contrast, the market structure has changed this time. From a cyclical perspective, VanEck has compiled 4 complete Bitcoin cycles since 2011 and found that bear markets typically last about 11 months on average from peak to trough; if excluding the special cycle of 2011, the average is about 12.7 months. Currently, Bitcoin has entered the 10th month since its peak in October 2025, and the next potential accumulation window may appear between September and November of this year.VanEck concluded that the current capitulation indicators are more suitable as tools for long-term investors to assess the cycle position rather than short-term bottom-fishing signals. Historical data shows that the advantages of investing based on these indicators are mainly reflected within a one-year cycle, and the market may continue to fluctuate in the coming months.

Analysis: Bitcoin soars to an 11-week high, possibly due to the U.S. Treasury increasing its bond buyback

According to Cointelegraph, driven by the U.S. Treasury's expansion of the national debt repurchase scale and improved market liquidity expectations, Bitcoin surged significantly after the U.S. stock market opened on Wednesday, reaching its highest level since June 2.Previously, the U.S. Treasury announced that starting from September 9, it would expand the scale of long-term national debt repurchase operations, increasing the single repurchase limit from $2 billion to at least $4 billion. This move is seen by the market as providing more liquidity support to the long-term bond market, pushing risk assets to rise broadly.As a result of the news, the yield on U.S. 30-year Treasury bonds quickly fell, decreasing about 9 basis points from its nearly 20-year high to 5.19%. The U.S. Treasury stated that the expansion of the repurchase scale aims to meet the persistent investor demand in the long-term national debt market and enhance market liquidity.However, analysts pointed out that this repurchase does not reduce U.S. debt but rather adjusts the maturity structure of the national debt. As the U.S. government debt approaches $40 trillion, the market remains focused on fiscal pressure and the risks of rising interest expenditures.Bitfinex stated that although Bitcoin has rebounded recently, the upside potential is still limited by insufficient liquidity in stablecoins. Data shows that since May, the supply of stablecoins on exchanges has decreased by about $14 billion. Additionally, on-chain data indicates that the stablecoin supply ratio (SSR), which measures the relationship between Bitcoin's market value and the total market value of stablecoins, has been rising recently, from 9.82 on June 30 to 11.69, indicating that the market liquidity environment remains tight.Analysts believe that the improved expectations for U.S. fiscal liquidity may provide short-term support for Bitcoin and risk assets, but the lack of significant inflows of stablecoin funds means that further increases will still require more capital confirmation.
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