bubble

Analysis: Worldcoin faces the risk of a value bubble, and implicit issuance may trigger a price peak decline

ChainCatcher message, DeFi researcher @DefiSquared analyzes that Worldcoin (WLD) currently has a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of up to $90 billion, surpassing the valuation of OpenAI itself, primarily driven by its extremely low circulation and narrative/meme status. However, this situation may change soon.According to the analysis, most buyers at the current price are unaware that a new "hidden" release volume has begun to increase exponentially, with Worldcoin set to directly distribute over 10 million WLD (approximately $92 million at current prices) to retail wallets in the coming weeks, and will continue to distribute at an even faster rate every two weeks. In contrast to the July VC/insider unlock date that many investors are focused on, the circulating supply of WLD is actually increasing steadily every week.Additionally, the Worldcoin Foundation has complete control over the unlocked foundation treasury liquidity, which could potentially lead to over-the-counter (OTC) trading at the currently inflated prices. Worldcoin co-founder stated last August that the purpose of the market-making protocol was to "prevent the price from skyrocketing to around $10," so the foundation may intervene at any time to curb price volatility, which could instantly create a permanent top.The current market capitalization of WLD has reached $1.4 billion, far exceeding the previous $2 million market cap, and contrary to the public expectation of no unlocks before July, the circulating supply of WLD will rapidly expand every week. Therefore, buying at this stage may mean a very high risk of entering at historical highs, and this risk increases over time. As a reminder, based on past bull market data, about 97% of the top 200 altcoins ultimately experienced a decline of 90% or more, and WLD, as a meme coin valued higher than OpenAI, will not be an exception.Although @DefiSquared believes this is a generational shorting opportunity, he emphasizes that such tokens often rise to prices above people's expectations, and there is still a high likelihood of an increase before forming a permanent peak. Most people may lack the patience, margin, or willpower to stay short when it first rises. But at least, given that the situation here could change rapidly, holding spot positions carries significant risks.
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