XPOS

SoSoValue: Today's market risk sentiment VIX index has risen to its highest point since early August (when the Bank of Japan raised interest rates). The market may be overreacting, and it is recommended to maintain risk exposure

ChainCatcher message, according to the SoSoValue macro sector display, on December 18th, at the interest rate meeting, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, bringing the target range for the federal funds rate down to 4.25%-4.50%. For the rate cut pace next year, the Federal Reserve adjusted its expectations from "four rate cuts" to "two" through the latest dot plot. In addition, the Federal Reserve raised its expectations for future core PCE inflation and GDP growth, which is consistent with Powell's remarks, all conveying a more "hawkish" signal than the market expected. Data shows that the market risk sentiment VIX index rose to its highest point since early August (when the Bank of Japan raised interest rates).SoSoValue analysts stated that the FOMC proposed an unexpectedly aggressive rate cut plan, coupled with Powell's "hawkish" remarks, led to a shift in market sentiment towards panic, with U.S. Treasuries even overreacting. The U.S. stock market subsequently corrected, while the dollar strengthened. Overall, all risk assets reacted strongly to the FOMC's latest signals. Based on macro data, we believe that the fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain unchanged, the dollar remains strong, and consensus-driven assets such as cryptocurrencies continue to be a destination for capital inflows. Each market correction driven by sentiment in the game is a good entry point, and we recommend maintaining risk exposure at this time.

UBS analysts: The dollar valuation seems overvalued in the short term, suggesting investors take the opportunity to reduce dollar exposure

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi Data, UBS released a research report stating that due to Trump's trade threats against BRICS countries, the dollar index has surpassed 106, but the current valuation appears to be overly high. Although the outlook for the dollar still seems bright, UBS analysts suggest that investors take advantage of the dollar's strength to reduce their dollar exposure in the short term.Market attention is turning to key economic events this week, including Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech on Wednesday and Friday's non-farm payroll data. According to data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the market expects a 75% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December. NatAlliance Securities' head of international fixed income, Brenner, stated that this data will determine whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates this month.Regarding the euro, influenced by the French government's facing a vote of no confidence, the euro fell nearly 0.8% against the dollar on Monday, marking the largest single-day decline in nearly a month. The three-month implied volatility of the euro rose to 8.172%, reaching a two-year high. The yield spread between French and German bonds has risen to a 12-year high, reflecting increasing market concerns about political risks in the eurozone.
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