POW

Fed's Interest Rate Outlook: Powell Can Only Provide Limited Reassurance to the Market, Main Threat Comes from the White House

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell faces a tricky task this week, needing to assure investors that the economic fundamentals remain solid while also conveying that policymakers are ready to intervene if necessary during Thursday's interest rate decision. As Powell praises the resilience of the U.S. economy, it coincides with Trump rapidly escalating the trade war, causing unease and leading to a significant decline in U.S. stocks over the past month. With growing concerns about the economic outlook, consumer confidence is declining, and bond yields are also falling. Dominic Konstam, head of U.S. macro strategy at Mizuho Securities, stated, "Powell needs to send some signal that they are paying attention to the stock market. Officials cannot ignore the recent declines."Economists widely expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates twice this year. Some investors warn that if officials continue to signal only two rate cuts by 2025, it becomes even more necessary for the Fed chairman to emphasize that the Fed is willing to adjust borrowing costs if there are issues in the labor market. James Ace, a portfolio manager at Marlborough Investment Management, said, "The Fed may marginally improve or worsen the situation. But clearly, they cannot fully reassure the market, as the blow to market sentiment mainly comes from the White House." Aside from issuing escalating and changing tariff threats to trading partners, the Trump administration has not taken many measures to mitigate the risk of economic recession.

Analyst: The buying power of high-positioned addresses for ETH in this round has been exhausted, and a strong rebound may require the market to re-establish consensus

ChainCatcher news reports that on social media, on-chain data analyst Murphy published statistics stating that the cost basis for ETH accumulated from January to February 2025 is roughly between $3,200 and $3,500. A cluster of addresses has been intensively accumulating at $3,475, totaling 1.66 million ETH. This group did not sell during the drop of ETH to $1,900 and instead added to their positions, currently holding 1.94 million ETH with a reduced cost basis of $3,150.Additionally, the cost basis for the chips accumulated in mid-February 2025 is approximately between $2,600 and $2,800. This group started to cut losses as the ETH price fell below $2,300, and currently, only the chips at $2,800 and $2,630 remain unchanged, holding 1 million and 850,000 ETH respectively.As the price of the coin continues to decline, new demand for ETH has gradually weakened, especially after the price fell below $2,000, where data shows there is almost no new purchasing power.Murphy explains that the high-position trapped chips, after a series of self-rescue replenishments, now seem to have exhausted their purchasing power; the current price of $1,850 is the cost price for large holders who accumulated two years ago. When the price drops to this level, they start to replenish (buying back parts sold at high positions to average down costs), thus forming a support effect. If this price level cannot provide support, the decline may reach $1,600 and $1,250, which are the "remaining support levels from three years ago's accumulation."From the overall behavior of current investors, the most important factor is still the reconstruction of consensus on ETH's value. If an effective consensus cannot be formed, the currently trapped chips at high positions of $2,630 (850,000), $2,800 (1 million), and $3,150 (1.945 million) will all become significant obstacles on the path to recovery.
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