On-chain indicators

Analyst: Three on-chain indicators show that Bitcoin has not reached its cyclical peak, and the market still has room for growth

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, 21Shares analysts stated that based on three on-chain indicators: MVRV ratio, unrealized net profit and loss, and long-term holder selling risk ratio, Bitcoin has not yet reached the peak of this bull market cycle, and there is still room for the market to rise.Specifically, the current MVRV (Market Value/Realized Value) ratio is between 2.5 and 3. Although there may be local peaks, it is far below the cycle top of 7. Analysts expect that Bitcoin's price needs to break through $200,000 to potentially reach that level.The unrealized net profit and loss indicator is currently between 0.5 and 0.75, and it needs to reach 0.75 to indicate that market sentiment is overheated. The selling risk ratio for long-term holders (those holding for more than 155 days) is only 0.4%, significantly lower than the overheating threshold of 0.8%. The recent pullback has mainly been driven by short-term holders.Analysts pointed out that Bitcoin has gone through several four-year cycles since its inception in 2009, with each cycle consisting of four stages: breakout, speculation, correction, and accumulation. Although the historical sample size is small, this cycle may show new changes in some indicators due to factors such as the approval of spot ETFs and increased institutional participation. Nevertheless, the current three on-chain indicators all show that the market still has upward potential.

Analyst: 5 out of 7 on-chain indicators suggest that the bull market has just begun

ChainCatcher news, according to Cointelegraph, 5 out of 7 on-chain indicators, including Bitcoin MVRV Z score, Puell Multiple, and HODL Waves, suggest that the bull market has just begun.Among them:Bitcoin market dominance exceeds 56%: Historically, cryptocurrency bull markets have started with Bitcoin's high dominance, as most traders sold off their altcoins during the previous bear market cycle. Since October 2023, Bitcoin's market share has remained above 50%.Bitcoin MVRV Z score below 6: The Bitcoin MVRV Z score, which compares the current market value or market cap of an asset to its historical average, typically reaches around 6 during cycle peaks. Currently, it is less than half of that number and has not exceeded 6 since March 2021.Puell Multiple has not reached 3: The Puell Multiple is another indicator that aligns with cycle peaks, calculated by dividing the daily value of mined Bitcoin by its annual moving average. According to Coinglass data, the Puell Multiple fell below 1 after halving on April 20. Peaks above 3 typically coincide with cycle tops, reaching only 2.4 during the price surge in mid-March 2024.HODL Waves: Realized Cap HODL Waves provide a macro perspective on how much Bitcoin is held by recent buyers compared to a previous period. The decline in the young wave peak indicates that selling pressure has been exhausted, suggesting there may be more room for upward movement.Bitcoin miners' revenue per hash: Although it tends to decline over time with increasing network difficulty, ELI5 points out that the last two spikes to $0.3 per TH/s occurred during previous market cycle peaks.
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