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Gray Scale: Hyperliquid or evolve into a giant in on-chain financial infrastructure, challenging the traditional derivatives market

Digital asset management company Grayscale pointed out in its latest report that the decentralized trading platform Hyperliquid is rapidly evolving from a cryptocurrency perpetual contract exchange into a blockchain financial infrastructure platform, which may even challenge traditional derivatives trading and exchange systems in the future, growing into a "financial services giant."The report shows that Hyperliquid is expected to achieve approximately $800 million in revenue by 2025, with an annual perpetual contract trading volume of about $29 trillion and an open interest of approximately $7 billion, occupying a significant share of the cryptocurrency derivatives market. Grayscale believes that the platform is no longer limited to cryptocurrency trading but is expanding into tokenized stocks, commodities, and prediction markets through the HIP-3 and HIP-4 systems, gradually building an all-weather on-chain trading infrastructure.FalconX also pointed out in another report that Hyperliquid is competing with traditional derivatives exchanges such as CME Group and prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, making progress in new markets such as Pre-IPO. The report also emphasizes that regulation remains a key variable. Although Hyperliquid currently restricts access for U.S. users, as the regulatory framework becomes clearer and institutions like Coinbase, Robinhood, and Kraken explore perpetual contract products, this sector may welcome broader growth opportunities in the future.

The investigation into the French crypto kidnapping case has uncovered a transnational money laundering network, with ransom flowing to wallets in Venezuela

The French newspaper "Le Monde" revealed that there has been new progress in the investigation of a cryptocurrency-related kidnapping case that occurred in 2023. French law enforcement discovered a transnational money laundering network involving multiple countries and cryptocurrency wallets while tracing the flow of a €1.7 million cryptocurrency ransom. The victim was the father of the well-known crypto influencer "TeufeurS." The kidnappers threatened the victim's family via text messages and demanded ransom payment in cryptocurrency. Ultimately, TeufeurS transferred a total of €1.7 million to the kidnappers' designated wallet in two installments, after which his father was released.The investigation showed that part of the ransom flowed into wallet accounts controlled by foreign nationals after multiple transfers. One transfer of $131,000 was successfully traced by the French gendarmerie, with leads ultimately pointing to a cryptocurrency wallet controlled by Venezuelan nationals. The case further revealed the complex chain of money laundering utilized by criminal organizations through cross-border cryptocurrency transfers, anonymous wallets, and overseas platforms. The report stated that this case is considered one of the significant examples of kidnapping and extortion cases in the European cryptocurrency industry and may serve as an early template for multiple kidnapping cases targeting cryptocurrency practitioners in France and Europe in 2025.

Wintermute enters the prediction market making, expanding into event contract liquidity

According to The Block, quantitative market maker Wintermute has announced its entry into the prediction market sector, providing two-way quote liquidity services for several mainstream event contract platforms, marking the official expansion of its trading infrastructure into the emerging market at the intersection of crypto and traditional assets.The company stated that it has been continuously providing buy and sell bilateral quotes on multiple "leading platforms," with the total monthly trading volume of these prediction markets exceeding $20 billion this year, indicating that this sector is growing rapidly but still in the early stages of liquidity. Wintermute's annual trading volume exceeds $3.5 trillion, and this expansion further strengthens its cross-asset market-making capabilities.Jake Ostrovskis, head of OTC trading at the company, stated that prediction markets have a demand structure similar to traditional major asset classes, but liquidity is still insufficient, requiring continuous bilateral quotes to enhance price discovery efficiency and trading depth. He pointed out that tighter spreads and greater trading capacity will improve the quality of market probability signals.In the industry, institutions such as Jump Trading and Galaxy Digital have also entered this field, with some platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi having a cumulative trading volume exceeding $150 billion. Analysts believe that Wintermute's entry further promotes the integration of prediction markets and crypto infrastructure, especially in terms of stablecoin settlement, on-chain clearing, and risk management systems, as these markets gradually approach a derivatives-level institutional development structure.

Analysis: Over the past 30 days, more than 100,000 BTC flowed into trading platforms while stablecoins accelerated outflow, increasing market selling pressure

Cryptocurrency analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that the inflow of BTC to trading platforms and the outflow of stablecoins from trading platforms simultaneously release a "risk aversion" signal, indicating that selling pressure in the market is increasing. Data shows that the net inflow of BTC to trading platforms over the past 30 days has shifted from an extreme net outflow of 300,000 BTC at the end of March to an inflow of 103,000 BTC, meaning more BTC is being reintroduced to trading platforms in preparation for sale. During the same period, the price of BTC dropped from $80,000 to $73,700.Meanwhile, stablecoins are flowing out of centralized trading platforms at a record pace. The average net flow of stablecoins over the past 30 days has shifted from an inflow of $164 million per day at the end of April to an outflow of $153 million per day. This indicates that the liquidity available for purchasing BTC in the market is decreasing. Axel Adler Jr. pointed out that when BTC flows into exchanges while stablecoins simultaneously flow out of trading platforms, it creates an unfavorable structure of "increased supply and decreased demand," which is a typical risk aversion market condition.He believes that if the net inflow of BTC continues to exceed +100,000 BTC, the market may face a deeper correction; while stable signals would include BTC turning back to a net outflow or stablecoins flowing back into trading platforms.
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