Arthur Hayes: The burst of the AI bubble will trigger "super printing," driving Bitcoin back into a bull market
Arthur Hayes published a new article titled "Situationship," suggesting that the AI bubble may eventually burst, but its subsequent impact could drive global liquidity expansion and become a catalyst for the next Bitcoin bull market. Hayes believes that the key to determining whether AI is a bubble lies in how investors define AI infrastructure construction. He points out that the market generally views the trillions of dollars in AI capital expenditure as "technology investment" and assigns high growth valuations, but its essence is closer to "real estate investment."He states that the current AI infrastructure construction is actually about building data centers, power facilities, and other underlying assets that support computing power, rather than directly investing in technology companies like Apple. "Financial institutions, private credit funds, and governments may mistakenly believe that investing in AI data centers is equivalent to investing in tech giants, while in reality, it is more akin to investing in highly leveraged infrastructure projects." Hayes believes that the core reason for the AI bubble's burst is not that corporate profits cannot be realized, but rather excessive credit expansion. He indicates that, supported by the U.S. and Chinese governments, financial intermediaries may overbuild data centers, power facilities, and related supply chains, ultimately creating credit cycle risks similar to those of the 2008 financial crisis, rather than a profit valuation crisis like that of the 2000 internet bubble.However, Hayes believes that the long-term value of AI remains immense. He points out that the computing resources operating within data centers will drive the development of "silicon-based life," having a profound impact on human civilization similar to that of the railroad era. Regarding market impact, Hayes expects that after the AI bubble bursts, governments and central banks may adopt more aggressive monetary easing measures, repairing the financial system through "massive money printing," pushing risk assets back into an upward cycle, and ultimately benefiting Bitcoin. Hayes states that the core variable of the current AI cycle is whether the capital market has mispriced AI infrastructure, and this judgment will determine the future direction of the market.