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Changxin Technology's global DRAM market share reaches 9%, with the 15% "survival line" being key to entering the top tier

According to the latest report released by market research firm Counterpoint Research, Chinese memory chip giant Changxin Technology (CXMT) currently holds a 9% share of the global DRAM market (by bit shipments), and this figure is expected to rise to 11% by 2028 (with a revenue share of 9%). The report indicates that Changxin Technology is transitioning from an industry "challenger" to a "strategic player," with a long-term goal of achieving a bit shipment share of 20% and a revenue share of 15% by 2035.However, the report emphasizes that to truly establish a foothold in the global memory market and join the ranks of the "big three DRAM manufacturers," Changxin Technology must cross the global market share threshold of 15% to 17% (about one-sixth). Historical experience shows that in 2008, Taiwanese DRAM manufacturers could not secure the massive funding needed for the research and development of the next generation of fabs after their market share fell below 15%, ultimately causing their market share to plummet to the edge of 3%. Therefore, the 15% share is seen as the core survival line for Changxin Technology to ensure sustainable development and self-sustaining capabilities in the medium to long term.To cross this threshold, Changxin Technology is leveraging newly raised funds to accelerate capacity expansion, planning to double its capacity by 2030 and triple it by 2035. Although facing external challenges such as U.S. equipment export controls and global supply chain access, analysts believe these restrictions may instead act as catalysts, forcing Changxin Technology to accelerate independent innovation in cutting-edge technologies such as Vertical Channel Transistors (VCT) and Wafer-on-Wafer bonding, thereby narrowing the gap with industry leaders.

Domestic storage chip leader Changxin Technology is open for subscription today, with the new share allotment rate soaring, possibly ushering in a "sunshine" market

The domestic DRAM storage chip leader Changxin Technology (688825) has officially opened for new stock subscription. Due to the large issuance scale, this new stock offering has rarely seen a "sunshine market" trend. Institutions predict that the online winning rate will soar to 0.3% to 0.7% (with a neutral expectation of about 0.45%), reaching 10 to 20 times that of ordinary Sci-Tech Innovation Board new stocks. Calculations show that the probability of winning for a single account with an average market value of 200,000 in the Shanghai market is as high as about 18%, and theoretically, an average market value of 1 million can reliably secure 1 winning ticket.The issuance price of the stock is 8.66 yuan per share, and to secure one winning ticket (500 shares), a payment of 4,330 yuan is required. The official winning rate and results will be disclosed on July 17 and July 20 (Monday) respectively, and winners must ensure sufficient funds in their accounts by 16:00 on the 20th. Various institutions have given a neutral expectation, as Changxin Technology's market value is expected to reach 2 trillion to 3 trillion yuan after listing, with the profit margin for a single winning ticket expected to be around 20,000 yuan.If Changxin Technology fully exercises the green shoe mechanism, the total fundraising amount will reach 66.607 billion yuan, setting a new record for the largest IPO on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, and it will also become the third largest IPO in A-share history. Financial data shows that the company has fully turned a profit, with expected operating revenue in the first half of 2026 reaching 110 billion to 120 billion yuan, and net profit attributable to the parent company reaching 50 billion to 57 billion yuan. The total amount of this strategic placement exceeds 14.4 billion yuan, successfully attracting social security funds, pension funds, as well as 30 major industry terminal giants such as Alibaba Cloud, Tencent, Meituan, and Xiaomi.
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