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Analyst: The inflow of Bitcoin to exchanges is 50% higher than in February, and SOPR remains below 1

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. released a report indicating that the current Bitcoin market correction is more severe than in February. The 30-day average inflow of Bitcoin to exchanges has risen to 122,000 coins, significantly higher than the annual baseline of 82,000 coins, and about 50% higher than the average of around 80,000 coins during the February sell-off period, approaching the upper range of 131,000 coins. Meanwhile, the price has dropped from $77,000-$78,000 to the current approximately $59,000.At the same time, the 30-day average SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) has fallen to 0.99, consistently below the critical level of 1, indicating that the market is, on average, in a state of realized losses. From May to July, this indicator was below 1 for 37 out of 61 days. The combination of these two indicators shows that the volume of sell-offs and realized losses makes the current correction more pronounced than in February. Adler pointed out that this is not a temporary pressure event, but rather a continuous selling process. For the market to stabilize, two signals need to appear simultaneously: SOPR rising above 1 (meaning that those selling coins are no longer losing money), and the inflow to exchanges returning to annual normal levels. The main risk is that if a large amount of coins continues to flow into exchanges, the supply pressure will persist, making it difficult for market sentiment to improve.

The Shanghai procuratorate in China has cracked a cross-border virtual currency exchange case, with the amount involved exceeding 200 million yuan

According to the disclosure from the People's Procuratorate of Jing'an District, Shanghai, recently, the court prosecuted a certain Li for suspected illegal business operations in a criminal gang that used virtual currency for cross-border money laundering and illegal foreign exchange. On June 10, the case was heard in court and a verdict was announced on the spot, marking a conclusion to a series of illegal business operations spanning three years and involving over 200 million yuan. In July 2024, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange discovered abnormal clues regarding Company Z using virtual currency to transfer assets for domestic clients during routine monitoring, and subsequently referred the case to the public security authorities for handling.Investigations revealed that Company Z was registered overseas in 2019, promoting itself under the guise of a "private bank" and developing a virtual banking app to create a facade of legitimacy, but it had not obtained the necessary foreign exchange business operation license in China and was essentially engaged in illegal foreign exchange activities. The gang targeted high-net-worth individuals with funding needs for overseas property purchases, immigration, and studying abroad, using intermediaries to attract clients, with customer managers, traders, and customer service personnel facilitating the currency exchange process. Clients purchased virtual currency from virtual currency exchangers with renminbi and transferred it to Company Z's overseas virtual wallet, after which the gang exchanged the virtual currency for foreign currency abroad and transferred it to the clients' designated overseas accounts. There was no actual cross-border flow of funds; instead, settlements were made through domestic and foreign capital pools, with Company Z charging a 3% currency exchange service fee and paying intermediaries a 0.5% commission.A total of nine individuals have been brought to justice in this case, while one main suspect is still under investigation. After review, the relevant personnel collectively violated national laws by illegally buying and selling foreign exchange, disrupting financial order, and the circumstances were serious or particularly serious, warranting criminal liability for illegal business operations. The court sentenced five individuals, including Gao and Li, to prison terms ranging from six years to two years and six months, and imposed fines ranging from 1.5 million yuan to 300,000 yuan; for Chen, Huang, and four others, due to lighter criminal circumstances, relatively smaller amounts involved, and voluntary confession, the procuratorial authority made a decision of relative non-prosecution according to the law.

SemiAnalysis: Changxin Storage has become the fourth largest DRAM manufacturer in the world, and will not break the super cycle of storage shortages in the short term

The semiconductor research institution SemiAnalysis has released a latest analysis indicating that Changxin Memory Technologies (CXMT) has clearly become the world's fourth largest DRAM manufacturer. Although its production capacity and cash flow are continuously growing, the institution believes that Changxin Memory still faces multiple challenges in equipment, technology, and market, and will not end the current storage "super cycle" in the short term.In terms of specific challenges, export controls on advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (such as EUV, advanced etching, and TSV tools) severely restrict Changxin's expansion into more advanced processes and high bandwidth memory (HBM) fields; although domestic equipment (such as Zhongwei Company, Northern Huachuang, etc.) has alleviated some pressure, it cannot fully resolve the integration and yield bottlenecks across multiple process links, resulting in its technology still lagging behind leading manufacturers by several generations. Additionally, Changxin's market share is currently still highly concentrated in the Chinese domestic market, with global expansion limited by geopolitical factors and customers' willingness to diversify their supply chains.In response to market concerns that Changxin might "impact the global market with cheap chips," SemiAnalysis clarified that there is currently a severe structural shortage in the DRAM market, and the increase in Changxin's production capacity may even struggle to fully meet domestic demand in China. In fact, the prices of Chinese memory chips are also soaring significantly, in line with the global upward trend, and Changxin is similarly a beneficiary of the shortage premium. Therefore, Changxin Memory should be viewed as a long-term structural competitive force, and in the current context of accelerated AI demand and constrained supply, it cannot shake the fundamental super cycle dominated by leading manufacturers in the short term.

Zhao Changpeng: Binance's Greek MiCA license application was close to approval but was forced to withdraw due to external factors

According to The Block, Binance founder Zhao Changpeng stated that the MiCA license application submitted by Binance in Greece fully complied with regulatory requirements and was close to approval before being withdrawn, but ultimately the process was interrupted due to "external political factors."In an interview, Zhao Changpeng mentioned that several countries within the EU had expressed interest in the license, and there was even a certain degree of "competitive pursuit," but the regulatory progress was ultimately affected by non-regulatory factors, forcing the application to be withdrawn. Binance officially withdrew its application in Greece last week and stated that it would turn to other EU member states to continue pursuing MiCA authorization.In response to market rumors regarding his connections with high-level EU politicians, Zhao Changpeng stated that he had not seen any verifiable documents and only saw similar claims online, which he did not confirm. Zhao Changpeng also pointed out that the EU MiCA transition period will officially end on July 1, at which time platforms that have not obtained licenses must cease related services. Regulatory agencies in various countries have made it clear that they will not postpone enforcement, and they evaluate this outcome as a "lose-lose situation," using the regulatory processes in Japan and Singapore as examples to emphasize that compliance processes often require a longer period.Additionally, when discussing Strategy's STRC preferred stock product, Zhao Changpeng stated that its structure is "too complex" and expressed difficulty in fully understanding its mechanism, but emphasized that he does not comment on the credibility of its founder Michael Saylor, considering him a "staunch supporter of Bitcoin."

Strategy remains unchanged, Bitcoin listed companies' net purchases dropped by 83% in a single week

According to SoSoValue data, as of 8 AM Eastern Time on June 29, 2026, the total net purchase of Bitcoin by global listed companies (excluding mining companies) for the week was $14.65 million, a decrease of 83% compared to last week.Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) did not purchase Bitcoin last week. At the same time, Strategy announced two securities repurchase plans, each up to $1 billion, targeting Class A common stock and digital credit preferred stock led by STRC, with an annual dividend yield of 8% to 10%, aiming to optimize the capital structure without consuming existing dollar reserves. To fund the aforementioned repurchases and support daily capital expenditures, the board also approved a Bitcoin liquidation plan, allowing the company to generate up to $1.25 billion in additional revenue by selling Bitcoin to replenish dollar reserves, and to pay maturing preferred stock dividends and interest expenses (or to replenish dollar reserves after such payments) when management deems it more beneficial than issuing Class A common stock or other capital market transactions, as well as to provide additional funding support for the two repurchase plans (including related taxes and transaction fees). Although this move by MicroStrategy releases the liquidation authorization, it currently serves only as a reserve shield for repurchases, with actual "momentum not sold"; its core logic has shifted from the initial "aggressive expansion of the balance sheet" to the refined operational phase of "utilizing crypto assets to optimize equity capital structure and reduce the capital cost generated by high-yield stocks."The Japanese listed company Metaplanet did not purchase Bitcoin last week, marking ten consecutive weeks without purchases.In addition, two other companies purchased Bitcoin last week. Hong Kong's global digital health, consumer goods sales, and artificial intelligence computing power technology group CIMG announced that it has just completed the first phase of a large stock and warrant issuance, receiving $13.5 million paid in Bitcoin (207.7 Bitcoins at an average price of $65,000), bringing its total holdings to 937.7 Bitcoins; Brazilian Bitcoin company OrangeBTC announced on June 29 that it invested $4.9 million to purchase 74 Bitcoins at a price of $66,233, bringing its total holdings to 3,896 Bitcoins.As of the time of writing, the total amount of Bitcoin held by the global listed companies (excluding mining companies) in the statistics is 1,142,484 Bitcoins, an increase of 0.02% compared to last week, with a current market value of approximately $6.852 billion, accounting for 5.7% of Bitcoin's circulating market value.

SBI Holdings acquires Bitbank for $289 million, creating Japan's largest cryptocurrency exchange; bipartisan U.S. senators urge CFTC to investigate Polymarket's "deceptive marketing."

According to BBX data, last weekend Japan's largest financial group completed the most important cryptocurrency acquisition, and U.S. bipartisan senators launched a new regulatory offensive against prediction market platforms. The core developments are as follows:SBI Holdings, Inc. (Tokyo Stock Exchange: 8473) announced the acquisition of the Japanese cryptocurrency exchange Bitbank (privately held) for approximately $289 million. After the transaction is completed, SBI's cryptocurrency business will surpass all competitors, creating Japan's largest cryptocurrency exchange. SBI Holdings is one of Japan's largest independent financial services groups, already owning cryptocurrency-friendly network bank SBI Shinsei Bank, cryptocurrency asset custodian SBI Digital Asset Holdings, and multiple Bitcoin mining and cryptocurrency venture capital investments. Bitbank is one of Japan's largest spot BTC exchanges and holds an official cryptocurrency exchange license from the Financial Services Agency (FSA) of Japan. This acquisition marks a shift for traditional Japanese financial institutions from "strategic trial" in the cryptocurrency sector to "scale acquisition dominance," alongside the joint stablecoin plan of the three major banks: Mitsubishi UFJ ($MUFG), Sumitomo Mitsui ($SMFG), and Mizuho ($MFG) (targeting March 2027), forming the most intensive wave of cryptocurrency layout in Japan's financial industry by 2026.U.S. Senators John Curtis (Republican, Utah) and Adam Schiff (Democrat, California) reported on June 28 that they jointly sent a letter to the CFTC, urging it to conduct a formal investigation into the prediction market platform Polymarket (privately held), citing a "concerning" investigative report regarding Polymarket's "deceptive marketing" practices, which accused it of systematic misleading in user acquisition and risk disclosure. This is the third regulatory offensive against prediction market platforms initiated by Congress this year (previously, the House Oversight Committee launched an insider trading investigation on May 22); the two senators come from different parties, which is significant. For Robinhood Markets, Inc. (NASDAQ: $HOOD), this investigation poses indirect pressure—Robinhood's prediction market/event contract business (which achieved a record daily trading volume in June) faces the same regulatory qualitative disputes as Polymarket; however, Robinhood's defensive advantage lies in its ongoing application for a CFTC Designated Contract Market (DCM) license, providing a clearer compliance path compared to Polymarket.
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