hang

According to Jinshi, the CME "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 69.5%, while the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 30.5%. By September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged drops to 23.4%, while the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points rises to 56.4%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 50 basis points is 20.2%.

According to a report released by CryptoQuant's research director Julio, the current open interest in cryptocurrency perpetual contracts is approximately $65 billion, down about 20% from the peak of around $80 billion in September 2025 and early 2026, reflecting some deleveraging rather than new capital inflows. The market is highly concentrated, with Binance dominating with about 39% market share, the top three platforms accounting for about 63%, and the top five making up about 81%, indicating that capital is highly concentrated in leading exchanges.The report states that, at the same time, TradFi perpetual contracts for metals, crude oil, and stocks have become a growth highlight. This 24-hour, round-the-clock product has doubled in scale to over $2 billion since the end of May, allowing crypto trading to compete directly with traditional trading venues, although its size currently accounts for only about 3% of the crypto perpetual market. TradFi perpetual contracts are also dominated by leading platforms, with Binance, Gate, and Bybit at the forefront, showing that platforms with mature infrastructure and liquidity are extending their advantages into traditional asset tracks.

According to Jinshi reports, a strategist at TD Securities stated in a report that if the Federal Reserve maintains interest rates on Wednesday, the dollar may experience a reflexive weakness. It is expected that interest rates will remain unchanged, but Federal Reserve officials Harker and Logan will hold opposing views, supporting a rate hike. Nevertheless, due to the intact expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate hikes for the remainder of 2026, any short-term weakness of the dollar may be limited.

According to Jinshi, the ADP employment change in the United States for the week ending July 11 was a decrease of 15,000, compared to the previous value of 16,500.

According to Bloomberg, DCG's cryptocurrency trading platform Luno will cut about 20% of its workforce globally as part of the company's restructuring plan. The company's CEO James Lanigan confirmed this news.In response to media inquiries, Lanigan stated that the restructuring will adjust the company's business layout, including expanding its business aimed at corporate clients (B2B) and reducing costs based on the current market environment. However, he declined to disclose the specific number of employees affected by the layoffs.

According to reports from China News Service, multiple South Korean media outlets believe that the recent sharp decline in the stock market is interpreted as a shock from the listing of China's largest semiconductor company, Changxin Technology. The market is worried that Changxin Technology will use the funds raised from its stock market listing to catch up with semiconductor companies like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, and this concern has spread, leading to a setback in investor sentiment.According to a previous report by CNBC, Z-Ben Advisors analyst Peter Alexander believes that, referencing the development paths of the steel and new energy vehicle industries, Changxin Technology will quickly seize market share in the low-end memory chip market and ultimately shake the monopoly positions of Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron Technology in the global memory industry.

According to the official announcement, Websea has officially launched the perpetual contract trading related to Changxin Technology in the Tradfi section today at 18:00 (UTC+8). As a digital asset trading platform for global users, Websea continues to enrich the selection of popular market targets and derivative trading options.This launch will provide users who are interested in the domestic storage chip sector and related market trends with a more flexible two-way trading entry. In the future, Websea will also continue to pay attention to global hot asset dynamics and continuously expand more high-quality trading targets to meet users' diversified trading needs.

According to a report by Yicai, MSCI announced that Changxin Technology will be included in the MSCI China All Shares Index due to the listing of its IPO new shares, effective August 10.The MSCI China All Shares Index is a comprehensive Chinese stock index compiled by MSCI, covering all categories of Chinese-related stocks, including large-cap and mid-cap stocks listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges, Hong Kong-listed companies, and overseas-listed Chinese stocks (such as US ADRs), fully reflecting investment opportunities in Chinese stocks. It is tracked by many global ETFs and passive funds, and the inclusion of Changxin may bring in passive capital inflows.

According to the latest ranking of stock derivatives exchanges released by RootData, Binance, Hyperliquid, and OKX are in the top three. The list is based on comprehensive scoring of exchanges supporting stock derivatives trading, considering dimensions such as trading volume, open interest, spreads, depth, trading costs, and data collectability. Among them:Binance scored 95.7, with a position size of approximately $2.844 billion, a 24h trading volume of approximately $19.879 billion, and a market share of 48.46%.Hyperliquid scored 94.9, with a position size of approximately $1.708 billion, a 24h trading volume of approximately $5.668 billion, and a market share of 13.82%.OKX scored 92.6, with a position size of approximately $528 million, a 24h trading volume of approximately $4.752 billion, and a market share of 11.58%.Compared to the same period last week, Hyperliquid rose from seventh to second place; OKX rose from sixth to third place; Gate rose from eighth to sixth place. MEXC fell from second to fifth place, and Bybit fell from third to seventh place.

According to Gate market data, the Hong Kong stock market closed with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.41% and the Technology Index rising by 0.61%. Lao Pu Gold (06181.HK) fell by more than 23.5%, Zhi Pu (02513.HK) fell by more than 18.5%, and MiniMax (00100.HK) fell by more than 14%.

According to Jinshi reports, two experts from LGT Asia Private Banking pointed out in a research report that the trading range of the US dollar against the Japanese yen is expected to shift upward and expand to 157 to 165 yen, while the previous range was 155 to 160 yen. The experts stated that this change reflects multiple factors, including the significant interest rate differential between the US and Japan, uncertainty regarding currency intervention, and rising fiscal risks in Japan.

According to Gate market data, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index turned negative during the session, having previously risen nearly 1%. The Hang Seng Tech Index's gains quickly narrowed to 0.1%. Lao Pu Gold (06181.HK) fell over 20%, Zhi Pu (02513.HK) fell over 18.5%, MiniMax (00100.HK) fell over 11.3%, and Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347.HK) fell nearly 7%.

According to Gate market data, the Hong Kong stock market opened with the Hang Seng Index up 0.26% and the Tech Index up 0.64%. Stone Pharmaceutical Group and Li Auto both rose over 3%, while Lao Pu Gold fell nearly 13%.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the predicted market Polymarket for the event "Mubadala Citi DC Open: Kei Nishikori vs. Zhang Zhizhen," the sub-market "Mubadala Citi DC Open: Kei Nishikori vs. Zhang Zhizhen Second Set Winner" saw the winning probability for the option "Kei Nishikori" fluctuate dramatically, rising from 47.5% an hour ago to the current 93.5% (a fluctuation of 46%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

Ondo Finance announced the launch of the new Ondo Network, positioned as a high-performance execution layer, aimed at combining the trading speed of centralized exchanges (CEX) with the non-custodial and secure settlement capabilities of blockchain. Ondo CEO Ian De Bode stated that the Ondo Network is an "evolutionary version" of the previous Ondo Chain plan, and the company will not operate two networks simultaneously, but will adjust its original plan of building a complete blockchain to focus on the execution layer architecture.According to reports, Ondo initially planned to fully bring real-world assets on-chain through Ondo Chain, but after developing the Ondo Perps perpetual contract trading platform and communicating with users, it was found that the current market's core bottleneck is not asset settlement, but trading execution efficiency. The Ondo Network adopts a separated architecture for execution, validation, and settlement, using secure hardware to isolate the execution environment, which enhances trading speed while maintaining user asset self-custody, verifiable transactions, and permissionless blockchain characteristics.Currently, Ondo Perps has become the first application built on this network, supporting 24-hour trading of stock and commodity perpetual contracts, and allowing the use of tokenized real assets as collateral. Ondo stated that in the future, the network will also support applications requiring high performance, privacy protection, and verifiable execution, such as spot trading, lending, and structured products. In addition, the launch of the Ondo Network will not change the positioning of the ONDO token. The CEO stated that ONDO will still serve as the governance and incentive token for the Ondo RWA ecosystem and market infrastructure, and as the network gradually decentralizes, ONDO will be used to coordinate the incentive mechanisms for validation nodes, observers, and ecosystem participants.

The ETH/BTC trading pair has recently risen to a nearly 3-month high, indicating that Ethereum's performance relative to Bitcoin is improving. The ETH/BTC exchange rate is used to measure the strength of ETH against BTC, rather than its performance in USD.Data shows that ETH/BTC had cumulatively fallen by about 80% from 2021 to 2025, remaining weak for a long time. With the recent rebound of ETH/BTC, the market is beginning to pay attention to whether Ethereum is experiencing a recovery relative to Bitcoin. Analysts point out that the rise of ETH/BTC usually reflects an increase in risk appetite for funds and an improvement in market expectations for the Ethereum ecosystem, application demand, and future growth.

The sports merchandise platform Fanatics will acquire the federally regulated exchange and clearinghouse under BGC to launch and settle its own prediction market business.Fanatics and BGC also plan to develop new market data products that combine prediction market activities with traditional financial market data. This deal allows Fanatics to enter the prediction market space, competing alongside platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.

According to data from RootData's stock perpetual contract exchange rankings, nearly 30 exchanges that have launched stock perpetual contracts still significantly adhere to the trading rhythm of traditional stock markets: trading volume drops sharply on weekends, and the morning session on Monday warms up as the traditional market approaches recovery, but has not yet returned to the intensity of a full trading day.Comparing trading days with non-trading days, the 24h trading volume of stock perpetual contracts dropped from approximately $39.078 billion to $4.896 billion, a decrease of about 87.5%. However, during the same period, the open interest slightly increased from $10.139 billion to $10.262 billion, indicating that positions have not been withdrawn on a large scale; what has truly decreased is active trading and turnover. A snapshot taken on the morning of Monday, July 27, shows that the 24h trading volume rebounded to $10.617 billion, an increase of about 116.8% compared to Sunday, indicating that market activity is recovering.In terms of liquidity, the weighted market depth (±2%) decreased from approximately $58.92 million to about $47.83 million, a decline of about 18.8%; it rebounded to around $55.68 million on Monday morning, nearing trading day levels. This indicates that the speed of order book recovery is faster than that of actual trading recovery, and market depth has not plummeted as sharply as trading volume.From the performance of exchanges, leading platforms such as Binance, OKX, and Bitget maintained relatively narrow spreads and strong depth on Monday morning; Hyperliquid performed well in rankings, but its trading volume was still below trading day levels; some long-tail platforms still face issues with excessively wide spreads, making it temporarily impossible to assess true liquidity.RootData Research believes that the most prominent value of these stock perpetual contract exchanges is to allow stock risks to be traded, priced, and hedged even on non-trading days of the traditional stock market. The traditional stock market is closed on weekends, with official prices remaining at the previous trading day's closing price, while stock perpetual contract exchanges still have trading, open interest, order books, and spreads on Sundays, indicating that crypto exchanges have broken through the "trading time" limitations of stocks.However, from the current data, they are participating in expected pricing rather than official pricing, making them more suitable for expressing events, emotions, macroeconomic changes, and risk preference shifts on non-trading days. Due to decreased trading volume over the weekend, widened spreads, and some platforms having abnormal data metrics, they currently resemble a "stock pre-opening price discovery layer," having participated in stock pricing but not yet obtaining the primary pricing power of the traditional stock market, nor have they surpassed the liquidity of the traditional stock market.