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SignalPlus Head: The intensification of multi-strategy hedge fund trading has triggered recent BTC sell-offs, but the market still holds a buy-the-dip sentiment

ChainCatcher news, according to an analysis by SignalPlus head Augustine Fan, the recent sell-off of Bitcoin has been primarily triggered by multi-strategy hedge fund trading that dominates the macro market. These multi-strategy trades include arbitrage, long-short positions, and leveraged operations, aiming to maximize returns across asset classes.In the Bitcoin market, a common multi-strategy trading method is basis trading, which involves buying spot Bitcoin (usually through ETFs) and shorting Bitcoin futures to profit from the price difference. However, when the price difference narrows or the market changes, the profits from basis trading decline, leading to capital exiting positions and concentrated sell-offs of Bitcoin and ETF shares. Fan pointed out that this liquidation pressure has amplified the sell-off over the past week, especially against the backdrop of increased volatility related to tariffs.Nevertheless, the "buying the dip" sentiment still exists in the market. Fan stated that the valuations of stocks outside the major indices remain relatively stable compared to historical averages, and hard economic data may outperform the rapid deterioration of soft data. Therefore, the market generally believes that it is still a "buying the dip" market, expecting to gradually digest the impacts of tariff volatility.

4E: The volatility in the US stock and cryptocurrency markets has intensified, and this week marks the arrival of "Super Central Bank Week."

ChainCatcher news reports that, according to 4E monitoring, under the continuous impact of Trump's tariff policy, the three major U.S. stock indices experienced significant fluctuations last week and collectively closed lower. The Dow Jones fell about 3.1%, marking its worst weekly performance since March 2023. The S&P 500 dropped 2.27%, and the Nasdaq fell 2.43%, both marking the fourth consecutive week of decline. Large tech stocks, except for Nvidia which rebounded nearly 8%, all closed lower for the week.The cryptocurrency market was highly volatile, with Bitcoin rebounding after dipping to a recent low on Tuesday, oscillating around $83,000. U.S. stocks closed higher on Friday, driving Bitcoin above $85,000, but the upward momentum could not be sustained over the weekend due to a lack of liquidity, closing at $83,144, up nearly 1.5% over the past week. Other major tokens saw slight increases, with Ethereum striving to hold above $1,900, and BNB boosted by a $2 billion investment in Abu Dhabi and a revival in on-chain memes, rising nearly 10% over the past week.In the forex commodities sector, the U.S. dollar index fell about 0.1% last week; the oil market rebounded on Friday, reversing the downward trend for the week, with U.S. oil seeing its first weekly increase in nearly two months. The shadow of the trade war triggered a rush to safe-haven assets, with spot gold reaching a high of $3,004.94 on Friday, marking the first time it has surpassed the psychological threshold of $3,000, with a cumulative increase of 2.65% for the week.U.S. inflation data for February, both CPI and PPI, came in below expectations, easing concerns about economic stagflation. However, the latest University of Michigan consumer confidence index hit its lowest level in nearly three years, indicating extreme pessimism among consumers regarding the economic outlook. This week marks the "Super Central Bank Week," with over 20 central banks set to announce their latest policy rates, with a focus on the Federal Reserve and Japan, where the market currently expects both the Fed and the Bank of Japan to maintain their interest rates.
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