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QCP Capital: Bitcoin finds weak support at $80,000 and will closely monitor any dovish shifts from the Federal Reserve

ChainCatcher message, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that it has been exactly one month since the S&P 500 index reached an all-time high, and the market frenzy that once dominated Wall Street and Main Street, along with the narrative of American exceptionalism, has faded. Market sentiment has clearly shifted, and the pressing question now is: "How much longer will this pain last?"The latest victims of the market downturn include some of the largest macro hedge funds, which were forced to stop losses during this month's plunge. Millennium reported losses of $900 million from just two teams, while Brevan Howard's flagship fund has dropped 5% year-to-date, prompting it to impose stricter risk limits on traders. For these traders, the music has not completely stopped, but it is undoubtedly slowing down.The biggest near-term risk is the upcoming April 2 deadline, when Trump is expected to announce a new round of reciprocal tariffs. This remains the most direct resistance facing risk assets. Tonight's Federal Reserve FOMC meeting is likely to keep interest rates unchanged. However, QCP Capital will closely monitor any dovish shifts, particularly regarding changes in growth and inflation expectations. Given that the impact of tariffs takes months to ripple through the economy, the Fed is expected to remain in "wait-and-see" mode. While the tariff decision on April 2 has already been hinted at, it remains a key uncertainty.

QCP Capital: As the cryptocurrency narrative thins, the stock market remains the main focus

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that over the weekend, a Bitcoin whale opened a short position of $400 million, with an average entry price of $84,000 and a liquidation price of about $86,000. This triggered market volatility on Sunday, as some trading groups attempted to force the liquidation of this highly leveraged 40x position, which only required a 2.5% price movement. Nevertheless, the position remains open and has incurred nearly $400,000 in funding fees.The report indicates that the Crypto Fear and Greed Index currently stands at 32% (in the fear range), reflecting a persistent risk-averse sentiment, especially considering the overall negative sentiment in the stock market. This further reinforces Bitcoin's role as a macro hedge tool. For instance, last Friday, the BTC-17MAR25-80k-P options were actively bought 300 times, clearly aimed at hedging against weekend volatility risks.Despite the ongoing market noise, Bitcoin remains stable above $80,000, showing stronger resilience compared to the stock market. In contrast, U.S. stock index futures opened lower this morning due to renewed concerns about an economic recession. This stems from comments made by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who stated that the possibility of a recession cannot be ruled out, echoing sentiments previously expressed by Trump. The market will focus on tonight's U.S. retail sales data to further clarify whether the 0.9% decline in January retail sales is the first signal of a slowdown in consumer spending or merely a pullback following a strong end to the 2024 holiday season.The report suggests that as the cryptocurrency narrative thins, the stock market remains the main focus. Last week's lower-than-expected U.S. CPI data provided temporary relief, but the Federal Reserve is unlikely to pivot to a dovish stance immediately. Given the ongoing tariff risks and inflation concerns, the outlook for interest rate cuts remains uncertain. Therefore, QCP Capital expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at this Wednesday's FOMC meeting. However, as the market seeks any clues about the Fed's next moves, especially amid uncertainties surrounding Trump's policy shifts, market volatility may remain elevated.
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