ChainCatcher news, the Complex Decision Analysis Center of Fudan University has released the prediction results for the 2024 U.S. presidential election based on computer simulation modeling, showing that Trump is very likely to reclaim the U.S. presidency (with a probability exceeding 60%).The research team stated that the prediction is primarily based on agent-based modeling (ABM) simulation technology. Our prediction is divided into three steps: (1) Through ABM-based simulation predictions, we obtained the vote share distribution and electoral vote allocation for 8 key states in the U.S. (limited by budget constraints, we selected 8 key states); (2) Through 1 million rounds of Monte Carlo simulations, we obtained tracking poll prediction results and electoral vote allocation for the remaining 42 states and Washington D.C.; (3) The two results were summarized to finally derive the overall prediction result for the 2024 U.S. election.Fudan's ABM prediction covers eight key states (these eight states are those where the gap between the Democratic and Republican parties was less than 5% in the 2020 election). The specific prediction results for the 8 key states (based on ABM simulation predictions) are as follows. Trump is expected to win: Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, Wisconsin. Harris is expected to win: Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina.