ChainCatcher news, 10x Research posted on social media that the 10-year Treasury yield has risen from 3.6% at the September FOMC meeting to 4.2% (+60 basis points). As the yield broke above 4.0%, Trump's election probability increased to 60%, intensifying market concerns about inflation. Higher bond yields typically indicate fewer rate hikes in the future. On October 4, non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, adding 254k jobs, and subsequently, Trump began his campaign activities, further boosting his election probability. This rise in yield led to adjustments in U.S. small-cap stocks (Russell 2000) and Bitcoin.

ChainCatcher news, 10x Research released a report stating that the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency market is still focused on the key data point that may break through $70,000. Although Bitcoin performed strongly over the weekend, the price has since retraced due to emerging macro and microeconomic challenges. However, it believes these are only temporary setbacks and expects Bitcoin's upward trajectory to resume soon.10x Research also stated: "Since the FOMC meeting, Bitcoin has surged 18%, driven by Powell's confirmation that the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates. While this indicates a strong bullish momentum, we advise investors to closely monitor the 10-year Treasury yield. The increasing likelihood of Trump's election may force the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate cuts earlier in response to his growth-promoting policies. Although the market still expects a rate cut in November or December, rising bond yields are shifting the focus to inflation, especially if global trade is constrained by Trump's tariff policies, countries may need to adopt strategies that favor domestic growth."