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Swap contracts are leaning towards a 25 basis point rate cut in September, as traders reduce their bets on the extent of rate cuts by major central banks this year

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, as high-level economic and trade talks between China and the United States reach an important consensus, a new round of rebound is triggered. The current trading situation in the U.S. stock market seems as if Trump's "Day of Liberation" shock never happened. Futures indicate that the S&P 500 Index (SPX) will open nearly 4% higher, which could push the index significantly above the levels of April 2. The Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) is expected to re-enter a bull market.Traders are also cutting back on bets regarding the extent of interest rate cuts by major central banks this year. Swap contracts linked to the Federal Reserve meeting now lean towards a 25 basis point cut in September. Last week, these contracts suggested that the Fed could make a policy change as early as July. However, some investors are concerned about the lack of details in the agreement announced on Monday and the risk of renewed conflict.Three months is not a long time to negotiate a resolution to complex trade disputes. Moreover, it is still unclear what the goals will be at the end of the cooling-off period. When asked how to avoid a further increase in tariffs after the 90-day delay period ends, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated on Monday that it is possible to extend it further.
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