Market Trends After the Crypto Summit: The Game of "Ideal" and "Reality" of Trump's Tax-Free Pie
Will cryptocurrency tax exemption be realized?In early March, the cryptocurrency market seemed to have entered a "crypto-viewing elevator" personally operated by Trump, experiencing a rapid rise and fall along with a sense of weightlessness. From rumors of a "strategic reserve plan" to "zero capital gains tax," and then to a crash triggered by tariff policies, the market repeatedly oscillated between hope and despair.
The upcoming White House's first cryptocurrency summit on March 8 is seen as a key node that will determine the short-term fate of the market.
How will Trump's policy direction, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and the U.S. government debt issue affect the market trends after the crypto summit?
1. Trump's "Crypto Policy Combo": The Clash of Idealism and Constitutional Iron Wall
1. Zero Capital Gains Tax: A Power Game Between the President and Congress
On March 4, Mike Alfred, founder of digital asset investment platform Eaglebrook, revealed on social media that the Trump administration plans to announce a capital gains tax exemption for cryptocurrency sales at the summit. The news sparked a brief market frenzy, but was soon met with a stern warning from legal experts. Adam Cochran, a partner at Cinneamhain Ventures, bluntly stated: "The president has no authority to unilaterally change tax laws; that power is granted to Congress by the Constitution. Even if Trump signs an executive order, its effect is equivalent to claiming he is a cupcake."
Key Contradiction: Low likelihood of policy implementation. Changes to U.S. tax law require congressional approval, and the Democrat-controlled Senate is likely to block such proposals.
- Short-term sentiment speculation: Despite the obvious legal obstacles, the market may still view the "policy vision" as a positive, driving speculative buying. For example, after Trump announced the inclusion of five cryptocurrencies in the national strategic reserve, the related coins surged over 10% in a single day, with a market cap increase of $300 billion, although they retraced gains the next day due to tariff policy.
2. Strategic Reserve Plan: National Endorsement vs. Asset Bubble Risk
Trump's "cryptocurrency strategic reserve" is seen as a symbolic move in the U.S. bid for dominance in the crypto space. The initial inclusion of BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, ADA, and other coins saw a significant surge, but the market quickly realized:
Selective support raises controversy: Projects on the reserve list (like XRP and SOL) lack the decentralization characteristics of Bitcoin and resemble political alignment with specific technologies.
Liquidity siphoning effect: If the U.S. Treasury purchases cryptocurrencies through a foreign exchange stabilization fund, it may squeeze the investment space for retail and institutional investors, raising concerns about "state-controlled" market dynamics.
2. Market Scenarios After the Summit: Four Potential Directions
1. "Pie-in-the-sky Frenzy": Zero Tax Rate Expectations Ignite FOMO
Assumption: Trump makes a high-profile commitment at the summit to promote tax exemption policies and signals further regulatory easing (such as relaxing ETF approvals). The market reacts positively with a short-term surge, leading retail and institutional investors to flood in, potentially pushing BTC to the $100,000 mark, with Meme coins and AI concept coins following suit.
- Risk Alert: The uncertainty of policy implementation is high; if Congress vetoes the proposal, the market could face a cliff-like drop due to "failed expectations," reminiscent of Bitcoin's 9% single-day drop on March 4.
2. "Pragmatic Positive": Clear Regulatory Framework Replaces Tax Exemption Gimmick
Assumption: The summit focuses on establishing clear regulatory rules (such as stablecoin issuance standards and exchange compliance guidelines) rather than empty slogans.
Institutional Capital Influx: Regulatory transparency will attract traditional financial institutions to increase their allocations, as banks and sovereign wealth funds have begun to accumulate cryptocurrency ETFs.
Value Coin Differentiation: Mainstream coins like BTC and ETH will benefit from long-term confidence boosts, while altcoins lacking practical use cases may continue to languish.
3. "Black Swan Attack": Fed Rate Hikes + Debt Crisis Double Whammy
Federal Reserve Policy Shift: If Trump's tariff policies drive up inflation, the Fed may be forced to maintain high interest rates, suppressing liquidity in the crypto market.
- Debt Bomb Detonation: U.S. federal debt has surpassed $40 trillion, and a high-interest environment exacerbates repayment pressures. If market confidence in the dollar falters, Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative may regain dominance, driving safe-haven buying.
4. "Family Interest Scandal": Trust Crisis Triggered by Trump-Linked Projects
The Trump family has repeatedly been exposed for having vested interests in cryptocurrency projects. For example:
World Liberty Financial: A DeFi project associated with the Trump family bought millions of dollars in ETH after a crash on Ethereum, raising suspicions of insider trading.
Meme Coins: The $TRUMP and $MELANIA coins issued by the Trump couple have already dropped 80% in two months, revealing the skeletons beneath the spotlight.
Frenzy or Trap? Retail Investors' "Last Lesson"
Trump's crypto policy resembles the tactics of his business reality shows: first, the "crypto reserve pie" attracts traffic, followed by tax exemption policies creating buzz, but the constitutional iron wall and debt crisis behind the scenes are the real directors. For retail investors, the biggest lesson from the summit may be: in the game between policy and market, the only unchanging truth is "don't take every rumor at face value." Keeping wallets closed and waiting for Congress and the Fed to reveal their cards may be a more survival-oriented approach than blindly chasing the "Trump market."
