【Key Summary】

• Token Distribution Highly Concentrated: 99.63% of the tokens are controlled by the top 50 holders.
• Volatility Increased Sharply: Recently, the price of BNX soared from $0.1689 to $0.9799, an increase of nearly 6 times.
• Selling Pressure Decreased: Slight outflows from top holders, and selling pressure is declining.
• Brand Restructuring: The original BNX is now called "Four," and its original token has been renamed FORM. This suggests a new starting point and potential for the project.
• What is four.meme? How does it compare to pump.fun? Will it increase demand for BNX?

Introduction: From BNX to Four ------ A New Chapter for the Project

Binary X was initially a decentralized derivatives trading system, which has now transformed into a leading GameFi and IGO (Initial Game Offering) platform, serving both as a developer of blockchain games and a launch platform for other gaming projects. On July 2, 2024, it incubated and launched the meme launch platform "four.meme," and after community voting, it decided to rename itself to "Four" on September 22, 2024 (only changing the brand and token name from BNX to FORM, with no change in token supply). With support from CZ, Four.meme became the standout product in February, helping BNB Chain's revenue surpass Ethereum for the first time. Given that BNX is the incubator of Four.meme, BNX token holders can also use BNX to participate in new launches on four.meme, further providing positive feedback to BNX. This research report aims to explore whether holding BNX tokens can replicate the price surge that CAKE once experienced, focusing on its ecosystem impact and market dynamics.

Data is primarily sourced from on-chain analysis tools such as Bscscan, Arkham, and Nansen, aimed at analyzing the potential price trends of BNX.

Data Source: Nansen, 2025.2.15

Token Status

BNX has experienced significant price increases in recent months, reflecting widespread optimism in the market regarding Four.meme and the BNB Chain ecosystem.

• All-Time High (ATH): $1.84
• All-Time Low (ATL): $0.143
• Current Price: $0.9799
• Current Number of Holders: 14,025
• Market Capitalization: $365,329,906.5
• Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV): $568,844,840.25
• Circulating Supply: 372,794,101.97 BNX
• Total Supply: 569,419,869.415784 BNX
• Token Performance Over the Past Three Months: +580%

Source: Tradingview, 2025.2.13

Launch Platform Comparison: Four.meme vs. Pump.fun

Trading Volume

• Pump.fun: Data shows that from February 11 to February 13, the trading volume of Pump.fun decreased from $322.9 million to $270.2 million.
• Four.meme: During the same period, Four.meme's trading volume surged from $2.98 million to $13.54 million, reflecting strong capital migration driven by participation from Binance.

This change highlights the increasing dominance of Four.meme relative to its competitors, indicating its significant ability to attract users and capital.

Pump.fun Data Source: Dune, 2025.2.13

Four.meme

Data Source: Dappradar, 2025.2.14 Data Source: BTX research

The chart for pump.fun records the daily trading volume on the platform. According to the team's analysis of the chart and data, from February 11 to February 13, the trading volume decreased from 322,909,194.57 to 270,226,360.61, a reduction of approximately 52,682,833.96.

Meanwhile, the trading volume of four.meme increased from 2,985,000 to 13,540,000, an increase of approximately 10,555,000. Clearly, CZ's influence has driven a portion of the funds rapidly from pump.fun to four.meme.

Active Users and Revenue Growth

(1) Active Users: Four.meme shows significant growth in both active users and new users, solidifying its strong position in the meme ecosystem.

Pump.fun

Data Source: Dune, 2025.2.14

Four.meme

Data Source: Dune, 2025.2.13

As shown in the figures, the number of active users and new users on pump.fun has sharply declined, while four.meme has shown significant growth. This indicates that four.meme has successfully attracted users from pump.fun to its platform.

(2) Revenue: Four.meme's revenue has surged significantly, reflecting positive market recognition of its platform and increased capital inflow.**

pump.fun (CebN5WGQ4jvEPvsVU4EoHEpgzq1VV7AbicfhtW4xC9iM)

Data Source: Dune

Data Source: Dune, 2025.2.15

Four.meme

Data Source: Defilama, 2025.2.15

As shown in the figures, four's revenue experienced a sudden surge, while pump.fun showed more stable cash flow. Will this become a turning point for the BNB chain, and can four.meme maintain such revenue? Only time will tell.

Deployment Mechanism and Technical Design Comparison

Deployment Process of Pump.fun

1. Token Creation: Users pay 0.02 SOL (approximately $3) to create a token, filling in the name, symbol, description, and uploading an image.
2. Bonding Curve Pricing: Uses the constant product formula (x * y = k), with an initial virtual pool containing 30 SOL and 1.073 billion tokens. The total token supply is fixed at 1 billion, with a precision of 6.
3. Automated Liquidity Management: When the token market cap reaches $69,000, the platform automatically burns tokens and injects liquidity into Raydium, charging a listing fee of 6 SOL.

Deployment Process of Four.meme

1. Token Creation: The cost is 0.005 BNB (approximately $2.85), and users need to set the token name, description, and optional parameters (such as purchase limits or timed launches).
2. Phased Trading:

• Phase One: After users customize token parameters, the platform completes on-chain deployment through smart contracts and sets initial liquidity, with contract control remaining with the platform to prevent malicious operations.
• Phase Two: The token has transfer restrictions within the platform, allowing only buying and selling within the platform, and automatically triggers migration to DEX when the token market cap reaches 24 BNB.
• Phase Three: When the token market cap reaches 24 BNB (approximately $13,680), the token will migrate to PancakeSwap, injecting 23.5 BNB and 200 million tokens as liquidity.

Fee Structure and Economic Model Comparison

Data Source: BTX research

Project Financing Situation

Data Source: BTX research

On-Chain Analysis

Top Holders' Balances

Holder Composition

Data Source: Nansen, 2025.2.14

Token Distribution

Data Source: BTX research

Token Unlocking Progress: 64.44% of the circulating supply, 35.56% has been unlocked.

Data Source: Coinmarketcap

BNX Net Inflow

• Circulating Supply: 569,419,869.415784 BNX
• Maximum Supply: 580,000,000 BNX
• Number of Holders: 14,025

Capital Flow in CEX and DEX Over One Month

Data Source: 0xscope, 2025.2.15

The chart shows the net capital flow in DEX and CEX exchanges. From the monthly data, BNX's performance and price trend in CEX are shown in the chart, with net inflows in CEX far exceeding net outflows, indicating that investors are optimistic about BNX. For DEX, net outflows are lower than net inflows, further driving the price increase.

Address Traceback

Data Source: Nansen, 2025.2.13

Net Flow of Top Holders Over One Week

Data Source: Arkham, 2025.2.13

Data Source: Arkham, 2025.2.13

Total Inflows:

• 160,300,273.18 BNX
• 86,420,000 USD

Total Outflows:

• 166,187,416.45 BNX
• 91,030,000 USD

Net Flow:

• (5,887,143.27000004 BNX), accounting for 1.03% of the total supply.

Net Flow of Top Holders Over 24 Hours

Data Source: Arkham, 2025.2.13

Data Source: Arkham, 2025.2.13

Total Inflows:

• 14,233,084.46 BNX
• 12,841,220 USD

Total Outflows:

• 14,637,457.66 BNX
• 13,333,630 USD

Net Flow:

• (404,373.200000001 BNX), accounting for 0.07% of the circulating supply.

Recent Activities on the BNB Chain

• BNB Chain Smart Chain Daily Trading Chart (Assumption: Increased trading volume implies more intense price fluctuations and capital flows).

*

• Highest daily trading volume in 6 months: 5,863,901

• Lowest daily trading volume in 6 months: 2,609,499
  Source: bscscan, 2025.2.13

• Active BEP-20 Addresses (Assumption: An increase in active addresses is usually accompanied by a rise in $BNB prices)

• Highest active address count in 6 months: 2,781,351

• Lowest active address count in 6 months: 909,141

Source: bscscan, 2025.2.13

• BNB Daily Price

Source: bscscan, 2025.2.13

• Daily Active Users

Source: Dune, 2025.2.13

Analysis and Findings

Through the analysis of on-chain token transfers and wallet balances, BNX shows a weekly net outflow of 1.07% of the total supply. From daily data, the net outflow accounts for 0.07% of the total supply. The data indicates that selling pressure is relatively mild, with minimal changes among top holders. This suggests that the main stakeholders of the project exhibit a degree of stability and confidence, which may positively impact BNX's future performance. Combined with current activities on the BNB chain, BNX may be poised for higher prices.

The on-chain analysis begins from a macro perspective, namely the BNB chain. From the daily trading volume and daily active addresses of the smart chain, the positive slope indicates recent user growth; however, active users have not shown significant increases, suggesting that while four.meme has some appeal, it is not yet sufficient to impact the current state of the BNB chain. From other charts, four.meme has indeed attracted some new capital into the ecosystem. The above data shows the net capital flow of BNX within weekly and daily ranges. On a weekly basis, the net outflow is 5,887,143.27000004 BNX. Meanwhile, over a 24-hour period, the net outflow is 404,373.200000001 BNX. The selling pressure is very mild.

Conclusion

The renaming of BNX to Four, along with the rise of Four.meme, presents opportunities and risks for investors. Although the project shows potential for sustained growth, the concentrated token distribution and the influence of large holders remain key risks to watch. Investors should proceed with caution but may consider the potential upside brought by the rising market influence of Four.meme.

Risk Statement

Systemic Risks

• Market Volatility Risk: Cryptocurrency prices may experience extreme fluctuations in the short term, leading to significant increases or decreases in investment value.
• Technical Risk: Blockchain technology and smart contracts may have vulnerabilities or be subject to attacks, resulting in asset loss.
• Regulatory Risk: Regulatory policies regarding cryptocurrencies may change in various countries, affecting the market environment and the legality of investments (e.g., South Korea has permanently banned P2E games).

Specific Risks

• High Concentration of BNX Tokens: 99.63% of the circulating supply is controlled by the top 50 holders, which poses potential risks. Notably, Binance alone holds about 44% of the total supply, meaning that if these large holders decide to liquidate their positions, the market could face significant price volatility.
• Project Risk: The project team may fail to achieve its promised technical or business objectives, leading to a decline in token value or even a total loss.