4E Observation: The 90,000 mark has been breached, the market is in panic, where is it heading next?
Compared to Bitcoin, which is gradually distancing itself from retail investors, the market is more concerned about the two major altcoin leaders, ETH and SOL.The cryptocurrency market has suffered another heavy blow, with Bitcoin breaking below the $90,000 mark, experiencing a 24-hour decline of 6.2%, hitting a new low since mid-November. The altcoin market is even more devastated, with the two leading coins, ETH and SOL, falling below $2,400 and $140, respectively, with 24-hour declines of 11% and 14.88%. Investor confidence has been severely impacted, as today's Fear and Greed Index has dropped from 49 to 25, entering "extreme fear" territory for the first time in five months.
Tech Stocks Lead the Decline, Dragging Down the Crypto Market
According to media reports, Microsoft, the largest supporter of OpenAI, has canceled some leases for AI data centers. Market speculation suggests that Microsoft may be abandoning "Stargate," fearing that AI infrastructure could face a risk of oversupply. Coupled with Trump's claim that tariffs on Canada and Mexico will continue, market confidence has further eroded, leading to a collective decline in major tech stocks in the U.S. Due to the strong correlation between Bitcoin and tech stocks, Bitcoin has experienced a significant drop under the influence of the U.S. stock market.
At the same time, lawmakers in South Dakota have postponed a vote that could allow the state to invest in Bitcoin, effectively killing the bill. The legislative decisions of a relatively small state like South Dakota can have a significant impact on the global Bitcoin market, but the failure of this bill has been amplified by the market as a symbol of Bitcoin's acceptance, potentially triggering a broader psychological effect that further dampens market sentiment.
Will It Continue to Decline?
The market situation is unclear, and many seasoned professionals have expressed their views on the future direction. Most analysts firmly believe that this is just a phase of correction in the bull market, emphasizing that every bull market has experienced price adjustments of over 50%, after which the market has maintained an upward trend. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, has maintained a bearish stance since January and has once again provided analysis, confidently stating that Bitcoin's price will drop to $70,000, returning to the starting point of the Trump rally.
Compared to Bitcoin, which is gradually distancing itself from retail investors, the market is more concerned about the two leading altcoins, ETH and SOL. Previously, there were reports that Bybit needed to repurchase ETH to replenish wallet funds, which at the time drove a significant rebound in ETH prices. However, news emerged yesterday that it had successfully filled the funding gap for ETH through loans and over-the-counter transactions, eliminating potential buying pressure. This undoubtedly adds significant uncertainty to ETH's price direction.
SOL has continued to perform poorly recently, with the LIBRA collapse revealing a meme conspiracy group manipulated by institutions, completely overturning the public's original perception of meme fair launches and severely impacting market confidence. The momentum for memes has cooled, and SOL's "golden shovel" attribute has significantly diminished. Additionally, SOL is set to face a large auction unlock, and many holders, considering risk avoidance, have chosen to temporarily exit and observe, which further increases the downward pressure on SOL's price.
Overall, the current market sentiment remains overshadowed by pessimism, with prices continuing to decline without showing signs of stabilization. Any minor fluctuations could trigger market volatility beyond expectations. In this unclear market, many investors are shifting their investment strategies from a previously aggressive pursuit of high-risk, high-return opportunities to a more stable pursuit of certain returns. Holding U finance, due to its relatively flexible and stable characteristics, has become a mainstream choice.
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