HashWhale BTC Mining Weekly Report (1.20-1.26)
Author: Monkey | Editor: Monkey
1. Bitcoin Market and Mining Data
From January 20 to January 26, Bitcoin's price showed certain volatility. The main changes are as follows:
From January 20 to 21, Bitcoin's price first fluctuated upward, then rapidly fell and quickly rebounded. The price rose to $106,108, then quickly dropped to $99,664, before rebounding to $108,899, maintaining a fluctuation around $108,000. Positive news in the market and institutional investors actively accumulating at the low points drove Bitcoin's price to break through quickly. However, on January 21, Bitcoin's price experienced a pullback, quickly dropping to $101,954, followed by slight fluctuations, leading the market into a tug-of-war state. That evening at 22:30, Bitcoin broke through the $105,000 resistance level, peaking at $107,044.
Between January 22 and 24, Bitcoin's price continued to fluctuate downward, hitting a low near $101,360. However, on January 23 at 22:00, Bitcoin's price quickly surged and broke through the resistance level, rising to $105,870. From January 24 to 26, Bitcoin's price volatility gradually narrowed, indicating that both bulls and bears in the market were waiting for new signals. Some short-term funds chose to exit, and Bitcoin's price consolidated within a narrow range.
On January 25, Bitcoin's price slightly fluctuated upward, breaking through the $105,000 resistance level again, reaching a high of $106,979, followed by a slight pullback, maintaining a narrow fluctuation around $105,120. It is worth noting that trading volume decreased, indicating a weakening enthusiasm among market participants, but the overall bullish structure remained solid, and there was no panic selling in the market.
This week, Bitcoin's price trend exhibited a pattern of "rising after a peak, entering a consolidation phase." The previous upward momentum was mainly driven by favorable policies and institutional buying, but after facing profit-taking pressure at high levels, market sentiment became cautious. In the short term, BTC's price may continue to fluctuate around the $104,000 to $107,000 range, with attention needed on changes in trading volume and policy news. If it can break through the $107,000 resistance, it may aim for $110,000; however, if it falls below the $104,000 support, it could test $102,000 or even lower levels.
Bitcoin Price Trend (2025/01/20-2025/01/26)
Market Dynamics and Macroeconomic Background
- Capital Flow:
According to Glassnode, the net outflow of Bitcoin from exchanges significantly decreased in the past seven days, indicating that investors' confidence in subsequent rises has weakened. This trend in capital flow corresponds with price adjustments, reflecting a weakening market sentiment. As Bitcoin's price retraced, investors chose to keep funds on exchanges in the face of uncertainty, possibly due to cautious observation of market volatility or preparation to trade if prices decline further. This change in capital flow corroborates the adjustment in Bitcoin's price, indicating an increase in market uncertainty and cautious sentiment in the short term.
- Technical Pressure:
Technical analysis shows that Bitcoin broke through the historical high of $108,000 in the previous week but soon faced strong selling pressure around $110,000, failing to effectively break through this psychological barrier, forming a short-term top, indicating significant selling pressure above in the market. Currently, Bitcoin's price hovers around $105,000, with an important support level at the $100,000 round number. If the price falls below this area, it may further test the $98,000 support (the low point of the previous consolidation range). In terms of technical indicators, the RSI has retreated from the overbought zone (>70) to the 55-60 range, showing a decline in bullish strength but has not fully entered the oversold zone, suggesting that prices may continue to adjust. The Bollinger Bands indicate that prices have retreated from the upper band to near the middle band, with the volatility range gradually narrowing, reflecting that the market has entered a consolidation phase in the short term.
- Changes in Market Sentiment:
On January 26, prices stabilized around $105,000, without further significant fluctuations. After price stabilization, market sentiment entered a neutral phase. Investors are no longer eager to chase highs or sell lows, and market sentiment is balanced. At this time, the market is waiting for further macroeconomic data and technical signals, with investors generally adopting a wait-and-see attitude. Trading volume has decreased, and market sentiment is at a relatively cautious neutral level.
- Industry News:
First, President Trump fulfilled his campaign promise by pardoning Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht, an event that has garnered widespread attention from the cryptocurrency community. Meanwhile, the inflow of funds into Bitcoin ETFs has significantly increased, with $802.6 million flowing in just on Tuesday, bringing the total assets of Bitcoin ETFs to over $1.75 billion. Additionally, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink predicts that with more institutional investors joining, Bitcoin's price could potentially reach $700,000 in the future. These factors collectively have driven activity in the Bitcoin market and significantly impacted price trends.
Hash Rate Changes:
During the period from January 20 to January 26, 2025, the Bitcoin network's hash rate experienced significant fluctuations, showing a complex pattern of rises and falls. On January 20, the hash rate quickly dropped from 877.89 EH/s to 727.81 EH/s; on January 21, the hash rate remained around 825 EH/s, falling to 730.09 EH/s in the evening. On January 22, the hash rate fluctuated in the range of 730-800 EH/s, remaining relatively stable; on January 23, it significantly rose to 887.71 EH/s, then broke through the week's high of 920.41 EH/s but quickly fell back to 733.88 EH/s. From January 24 to 25, the hash rate mainly fluctuated around 740 EH/s, briefly reaching a small peak of 787.45 EH/s on the evening of the 24th, then falling back to 688.53 EH/s. On January 26, the hash rate fluctuated around 710 EH/s and climbed to 786.71 EH/s in the morning. Overall, this week's hash rate exhibited intense fluctuations, possibly related to market sentiment, miner behavior, and network difficulty adjustments.
Bitcoin Network Hash Rate Data
Mining Revenue:
According to The Block, as of January 26, 2025, Bitcoin miners' total revenue in January has reached $1.07 billion, slightly down from $1.44 billion in December 2024. This decline is closely related to the recent significant fluctuations in Bitcoin network hash rate, affecting miners' overall profitability. Additionally, network mining difficulty adjustments and market volatility have also put some pressure on miners' revenue. Currently, revenue mainly comes from block subsidies, with transaction fees accounting for a relatively small proportion, but if network activity increases, fee income is expected to provide support. Overall, although revenue has declined, the miner ecosystem remains stable, and future earnings will depend on changes in hash rate, market trends, and network activity levels.
It is noteworthy that a recent research report from global financial services firm Canaccord Genuity further highlights the profitability prospects of the mining industry. According to the report, the main costs of Bitcoin mining in 2025 are expected to be in the range of approximately $26,000 to $28,000 per Bitcoin, while the current trading price of Bitcoin is around $105,000, indicating that mining activities still have considerable profit margins. Furthermore, the report points out that large-scale electricity supply from mining companies is attracting interest from artificial intelligence data center hosting businesses, providing miners with diversified income sources. At the same time, several large publicly listed mining companies are enhancing their competitiveness and network hash rate share by upgrading mining equipment, a trend that is expected to further consolidate the industry's stability and profitability in the future.
Bitcoin Miner Revenue Data
Energy Costs and Mining Efficiency:
According to CloverPool, as of January 26, 2025, the total network hash rate is approximately 768.29 EH/s, and the network mining difficulty is 110.45 T. The next Bitcoin mining difficulty is expected to be adjusted downwards by 1.16% on January 27, dropping to 109.17 T. This is a rare difficulty adjustment for the Bitcoin network in recent years, mainly due to a recent global cold wave causing some mining sites to temporarily shut down, which has intensified overall hash rate fluctuations.
It is noteworthy that since August 2024, Bitcoin mining difficulty has shown a significant upward trend, with a quarterly increase of 24%. This trend indicates that more miners are entering the market and deploying more efficient mining machines, which enhances network security but also intensifies competition among miners. In this context, optimizing energy costs and improving mining efficiency become particularly important.
Moreover, Bitcoin mining is having a positive impact on regional energy management. Reports indicate that Bitcoin mining has saved Texas approximately $18 billion by replacing expensive gas peaking power plants. At the same time, miners have balanced grid loads by flexibly adjusting energy consumption during peak electricity usage, significantly enhancing grid stability. This operational model demonstrates the potential of Bitcoin mining in optimizing energy use and supporting grid operations.
In summary, whether it is the fluctuations in hash rate, adjustments in difficulty, or innovations in energy management, they all indicate that the Bitcoin mining industry is in a phase of continuous optimization and development. In the future, with the deployment of more efficient mining machines and the widespread use of clean energy, Bitcoin mining will further balance cost, efficiency, and sustainability.
Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Data
2. Policy and Regulatory News
Utah State Representative Jordan Teuscher Proposes Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Legislation
On January 20, news emerged that Utah State Representative Jordan Teuscher proposed strategic Bitcoin reserve legislation.
Tweet Screenshot
Utah State Proposes Bill: Allows 10% of State Funds to be Invested in Bitcoin and Other Cryptocurrencies
On January 22, news reported by BitcoinNews indicated that Utah has proposed a new bill that would allow the state government to allocate 10% of its funds to investments in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Kansas New Bill Aims to Invest State Public Employee Retirement Funds in Bitcoin ETFs
On January 23, Kansas Senator Bowser proposed Senate Bill No. 34, aiming to invest public employee retirement funds in Bitcoin ETFs. According to the bill's text, it intends to authorize the Kansas Public Employees Retirement System (KPERS) Trust Committee to invest up to 10% of the Kansas public employee retirement fund in Bitcoin ETF products.
Ohio State Representative: By Allowing Investment in Strategic Bitcoin Reserves, We Can Hedge Against Inflation
On January 26, Ohio State Representative Steve Detremiou stated, "By allowing investment in strategic Bitcoin reserves, we can hedge against inflation and keep Ohio at the forefront of monetary and technological innovation."
3. Mining News
Siberian Power Company Plans to Sue 400 "Illegal" Crypto Miners
On January 21, news reported by Tim Alper indicated that the Siberian power company Irkutsk Energosbyt plans to sue about 400 illegal cryptocurrency miners, accusing them of "stealing" $6.3 million worth of electricity from the grid. The company stated that these miners were illegally using electricity for crypto mining, particularly by installing high-energy-consuming mining equipment in garages, private homes, apartment balconies, and garden plots, leading to increased household grid loads and potential accidents.
As of January 1, 2025, the court has supported 1,348 lawsuits from the power company, and 104 miners have chosen to settle out of court by paying their electricity bills. Irkutsk Energosbyt stated it would continue its legal actions.
If Mining Hash Power Shifts to AI Long-Term, Bitcoin Centralization Risks Will Increase
On January 24, Bitfinex released an analysis report stating that the symbiotic potential between Bitcoin mining and artificial intelligence infrastructure cannot be ignored. AI operations require a large amount of energy and specialized facilities, and Bitcoin miners already possess these facilities. During peaks of AI operations or high energy demand, they can reduce Bitcoin mining scale and increase mining scale when energy is more abundant, which can improve the economic efficiency of mining operations while maintaining sufficient hash power for the Bitcoin network.
Whether this shift is beneficial or harmful to the Bitcoin network depends on the diversification of miners and the industry's ability to maintain network security in a constantly changing dynamic. If executed strategically, the combination of AI and Bitcoin mining can promote innovation and efficiency without compromising Bitcoin's decentralized nature.
However, if a large amount of hash power is permanently shifted, the Bitcoin network may face greater centralization risks. Choosing AI over other digital assets also aligns with the broader strategic goals of many mining companies. The growth trajectory of the AI industry is expected to achieve long-term scalability and align with emerging technological trends from automation to advanced data analytics.
VanEck Digital Asset Research Director: Petrobras to Launch Bitcoin Mining R&D Project
On January 25, VanEck's Digital Asset Research Director Matthew Sigel disclosed that Petrobras, one of the world's top ten oil companies, announced it would launch a new R&D project that includes Bitcoin mining and tokenization.
4. Bitcoin News
This Week, Global Enterprises and Nations Continue to Increase Bitcoin Holdings
El Salvador: Added 12 Bitcoins, bringing total holdings to 6,047.18 Bitcoins, valued at approximately $631 million.
MicroStrategy: Increased holdings by 14,600 Bitcoins in January, bringing total holdings to 461,000 Bitcoins, accounting for 2.2% of Bitcoin supply.
Genius Group: Increased holdings of Bitcoin worth $5 million, bringing total holdings to 420 Bitcoins, valued at approximately $40 million.
KULR Technology Group: Increased holdings of Bitcoin worth $8 million, bringing total holdings to 510 Bitcoins, with a total investment of $50 million, yielding 127% this year.
Critical Metal Corp: Plans to allocate $100 million to purchase Bitcoin, with a total fund pool of $500 million, timing and scale of the increase to be determined.
Australia Monochrome ETF: Held 295 Bitcoins as of January 22, with a market value of approximately $49.7196 million.
Fathom Holdings: Will purchase up to $500,000 worth of Bitcoin or Bitcoin ETFs within two weeks.
Semler Scientific (holdings): Held 2,321 Bitcoins as of January 17, with a total purchase price of $191.9 million, averaging $82,689 per Bitcoin.
Semler Scientific (financing): Increased financing scale to $85 million for purchasing more Bitcoin.
Thumzup: The board authorized holding 90% of the company's remaining cash in Bitcoin.
OKG Research: U.S. Public and Private Sectors Hold About 10% of Global Bitcoin
On January 20, OKG Research analyzed that the U.S. public and private sectors currently hold about 10% of global Bitcoin, with the private sector accounting for about 9%. Although the U.S. government has not directly included Bitcoin in its strategic reserves, the deep involvement of private enterprises such as Tesla and MicroStrategy has gradually drawn attention to Bitcoin's potential as an alternative reserve asset.
Compared to the U.S. shares in gold (23% globally) and oil (15% globally) reserves, Bitcoin's status is gaining global market attention against the backdrop of increasing fiscal deficits and debt pressures.
Polymarket Predicts 58% Chance Trump Will Create Bitcoin Reserve Within 100 Days of Taking Office
On January 20, Polymarket data indicated that the probability of Trump creating a Bitcoin reserve within 100 days of taking office surged to 58%, up from 43% the previous day.
Additionally, the market expects a 42% probability that the number of executive orders Trump signs on his first day will exceed 40; Kalshi's implied market expectation is that Trump will sign approximately 40.4 executive orders on his first day. Among these, immigration, tariffs, diplomacy, and energy are expected to be the areas of concentrated policy announcements on Trump's inauguration day.
Furthermore, the market generally anticipates that Trump's presidential executive powers will be significantly strengthened in his second term, with Kalshi showing a 77% probability that he will declare a national emergency within his first hundred days.
WisdomTree Report: With Rise of Institutional Adoption, Bitcoin Is No Longer a Niche Investment
On January 21, CoinDesk reported that WisdomTree's 2025 Crypto Trends report indicated that Bitcoin is no longer a niche investment, with institutional adoption rapidly growing. The report shows that multi-asset investment portfolios that include Bitcoin consistently outperform those that do not. WisdomTree expects that due to increasing client demand, Bitcoin adoption rates will continue to rise in 2025. The launch of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has driven the mainstreaming of cryptocurrencies, and more countries may approve trading products (ETPs) for altcoins, including SOL and XRP, in the future. The report also highlights Ethereum's significant position in DeFi, NFTs, and Web3, although its scalability issues remain to be resolved. Stablecoins and asset tokenization are expected to grow significantly, further promoting the application of blockchain technology in the global financial system.
Analysis: If Bitcoin Follows Cycles, Year-End Price May Break $1 Million
On January 21, CoinDesk analyst James Van Straten stated that if Bitcoin continues to follow the cycle of 2017, it may break $1 million by the end of the year. Currently, Bitcoin's price has risen about 550% from the cycle low, which aligns with previous cycles.
In discussions about Bitcoin, the analysis of the four-year cycle has received significant attention. This cycle revolves around Bitcoin's halving mechanism, which reduces supply every four years. Typically, after each halving, Bitcoin's price experiences a significant increase in the following year, and the current cycle continues to show similar trends to the previous two cycles.
So far, Bitcoin's price has risen about 550% from the cycle low during the FTX collapse ($15,500). Data shows that Bitcoin's performance in the current cycle is similar to that of the 2015 to 2018 cycle: after the cycle low on January 14, 2015, Bitcoin (blue line) also saw an increase of about 550%.
If Bitcoin continues to follow the trend of the 2015 to 2018 cycle, by the end of the first quarter of 2025, its price could rise about 1,100% from the cycle low to reach $186,000. The peak of this cycle may occur in October of this year, with an increase of 11,000%, pushing the price to approximately $1.7 million.
Data: 70 Listed Companies Hold Over 612,000 Bitcoins, Valued at Over $61.2 Billion
On January 21, the latest statistics released by HODL15 Capital indicated that the top 70 listed companies holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets currently hold a total of 612,734 Bitcoins.
Data Image of Bitcoin Holdings by 70 Listed Companies
12 U.S. States Are Actively Promoting Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Legislation
On January 22, Cointelegraph disclosed that 12 U.S. states are actively promoting strategic Bitcoin reserve legislation, including:
Florida, Alabama, New Hampshire;
Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Dakota;
Oklahoma, Texas, Wyoming;
Massachusetts, Utah, Arizona.
Standard Chartered: Institutional Capital Inflows Expected to Push Bitcoin to $200,000 This Year
On January 23, a report from Standard Chartered indicated that this year, more capital is expected to flow into Bitcoin from institutions than last year, especially with the inclusion of pension funds likely to push Bitcoin to $200,000 this year.
The report stated, "If we take proactive actions as we expect, we believe institutional capital flows will continue. We expect institutional capital inflows into BTC in 2025 to exceed levels in 2024, with new capital potentially coming from long funds classified as 'pension funds.' The dominance of institutional capital inflows into ETFs may support the performance of BTC and ETH; we expect their prices to reach $200,000 and $10,000, respectively, by the end of 2025."
CZ: U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Plan Essentially Confirmed
On January 24, CZ commented on X platform about "Senator Cynthia Lummis serving as chair of the U.S. Senate Banking Digital Assets Subcommittee," stating, "The U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve is essentially confirmed. Cryptocurrency is advancing at an accelerated pace again."
U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETF Net Inflow of $517 Million
On January 25, according to Farside Investors monitoring, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF had a net inflow of $517 million yesterday, including: BlackRock IBIT: +$155.7 million
Fidelity FBTC: +$186.1 million
Bitwise BITB: -$8.6 million
ARKB: +$168.7 million
Wtree BTCW: +$2.8 million
Grayscale Mini BTC: +$13 million
Coinbase CEO: Bitcoin Is a Better Form of Currency Than Gold
On January 26, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong stated, "Bitcoin is a better form of currency than gold."