HashWhale BTC Mining Weekly | Bitcoin mining cost is approximately $26,000 to $28,000 (1.20-1.26)

Author: Monkey | Editor: Monkey

1. Bitcoin Market and Mining Data

From January 20 to January 26, Bitcoin's price exhibited certain volatility. The main changes are as follows:

From January 20 to 21, Bitcoin's price first fluctuated upwards, then rapidly fell and quickly rebounded. The price rose to $106,108, then quickly retreated to $99,664, followed by a rebound to $108,899, maintaining a range around $108,000. Positive news in the market and institutional investors actively accumulating at the lows drove Bitcoin's price to break through quickly. However, on January 21, Bitcoin's price saw a correction, swiftly dropping to $101,954, followed by slight fluctuations, leading the market into a tug-of-war state. That evening at 22:30, Bitcoin broke through the $105,000 resistance level, peaking at $107,044.

Between January 22 and 24, Bitcoin's price continued to fluctuate downwards, hitting a low near $101,360. However, on January 23 at 22:00, Bitcoin's price surged and broke through resistance, rising to $105,870. From January 24 to 26, Bitcoin's price volatility gradually narrowed, indicating that both bulls and bears in the market were waiting for new signals. Some short-term funds chose to exit, and Bitcoin's price consolidated within a narrow range.

On January 25, Bitcoin's price slightly fluctuated upwards, once again breaking through the $105,000 resistance level, peaking at $106,979, and then slightly retracing, maintaining a narrow range around $105,120. Notably, trading volume decreased, indicating a waning enthusiasm among market participants, but the overall bullish structure remained solid, with no panic selling observed in the market.

This week, Bitcoin's price trend exhibited a pattern of "rising after a peak, entering a consolidation phase." The previous upward momentum was mainly driven by favorable policies and institutional buying, but faced profit-taking pressure at high levels, leading to a cautious market sentiment. In the short term, BTC's price may continue to fluctuate around the $104,000 to $107,000 range, with attention needed on changes in trading volume and policy news. If it can break through the $107,000 resistance, it may aim for $110,000; however, if it falls below the $104,000 support, it might test $102,000 or even lower levels.

Bitcoin Price Trend (2025/01/20-2025/01/26)

Market Dynamics and Macroeconomic Background

1. Capital Flow:

According to Glassnode, the net outflow of Bitcoin from exchanges significantly decreased over the past seven days, indicating that investors' confidence in subsequent price increases has weakened. This trend in capital flow corresponds with price adjustments, reflecting a weakening market sentiment. As Bitcoin's price retraced, investors chose to keep funds on exchanges in the face of uncertainty, possibly due to cautious observation of market volatility or preparation for trading if prices decline further. This change in capital flow corroborates the adjustments in Bitcoin's price, indicating an increase in uncertainty and cautious sentiment in the market in the short term.

2. Technical Pressure:

Technical analysis shows that Bitcoin broke through the historical high of $108,000 in the previous week but soon faced strong selling pressure around $110,000, failing to effectively break through this psychological barrier, forming a short-term top, indicating significant selling pressure above. Currently, Bitcoin's price hovers around $105,000, with an important support level at the $100,000 mark; if the price falls below this area, it may further test the support at $98,000 (the previous consolidation low). In terms of technical indicators, the RSI has fallen from the overbought zone (>70) to the 55-60 range, indicating a decline in bullish momentum but has not yet fully entered the oversold zone, suggesting that prices may continue to adjust. The Bollinger Bands show that prices have fallen from the upper band to near the middle band, with the volatility range gradually narrowing, reflecting that the market has entered a consolidation phase in the short term.

3. Changes in Market Sentiment:

On January 26, the price stabilized around $105,000, without further significant fluctuations. After the price stabilized, market sentiment entered a neutral phase. Investors are no longer eager to chase prices up or down, and market sentiment is balanced. At this time, the market is waiting for further macroeconomic data and technical signals, with investors generally adopting a wait-and-see attitude. Trading volume has decreased, and market sentiment is at a relatively cautious neutral level.

4. Industry News:

First, President Trump fulfilled his campaign promise by pardoning Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht, an event that has garnered widespread attention in the cryptocurrency community. Meanwhile, inflows into Bitcoin ETFs have significantly increased, with $802.6 million flowing in just on Tuesday, bringing the total assets of Bitcoin ETFs to over $1.75 billion. Additionally, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink predicts that with more institutional investors joining, Bitcoin's price could potentially reach $700,000 in the future. These factors collectively have driven activity in the Bitcoin market and significantly impacted price trends.

Hash Rate Changes:

During the period from January 20 to January 26, 2025, the Bitcoin network's hash rate experienced significant fluctuations, displaying a complex pattern of rises and falls. On January 20, the hash rate quickly dropped from 877.89 EH/s to 727.81 EH/s; on January 21, the hash rate remained around 825 EH/s, falling to 730.09 EH/s in the evening. On January 22, the hash rate fluctuated between 730-800 EH/s, remaining relatively stable; on January 23, it significantly rose to 887.71 EH/s, then broke through the week's highest value of 920.41 EH/s but quickly fell back to 733.88 EH/s. From January 24 to 25, the hash rate mainly fluctuated around 740 EH/s, briefly reaching a small peak of 787.45 EH/s on the evening of the 24th, then falling back to 688.53 EH/s. On January 26, the hash rate fluctuated around 710 EH/s and climbed to 786.71 EH/s in the morning. Overall, this week's hash rate exhibited intense fluctuations, possibly related to market sentiment, miner behavior, and network difficulty adjustments.

Bitcoin Network Hash Rate Data

Mining Revenue:

According to The Block, as of January 26, 2025, Bitcoin miners' total revenue for January has reached $1.07 billion, slightly down from $1.44 billion in December 2024. This decline is closely related to the recent dramatic fluctuations in Bitcoin network hash rate, affecting miners' overall profitability. Additionally, network mining difficulty adjustments and market volatility have also exerted some pressure on miners' revenue. Currently, revenue mainly comes from block subsidies, with transaction fees accounting for a relatively small proportion; however, if network activity increases, fee income is expected to provide support. Overall, despite the decline in revenue, the miner ecosystem remains stable, and future earnings will depend on changes in hash rate, market trends, and network activity levels.

Notably, a recent research report from global financial services firm Canaccord Genuity further highlights the profitability prospects of the mining industry. According to the report, the main costs of Bitcoin mining in 2025 are expected to be in the range of approximately $26,000 to $28,000 per Bitcoin, while the current trading price of Bitcoin is around $105,000, indicating that mining activities still have considerable profit margins. Furthermore, the report points out that large-scale electricity supplies from mining companies are attracting interest from AI data center hosting businesses, providing miners with diversified revenue sources. At the same time, several large publicly listed mining companies are enhancing their competitiveness and network hash rate share by upgrading mining equipment, a trend that is expected to further consolidate the industry's stability and profitability in the future.

Bitcoin Miner Revenue Data

Energy Costs and Mining Efficiency:

According to CloverPool, as of January 26, 2025, the total network hash rate is approximately 768.29 EH/s, and the network mining difficulty is 110.45 T. The next Bitcoin mining difficulty adjustment is expected to decrease by 1.16% on January 27, bringing it down to 109.17 T. This is a rare difficulty reduction for the Bitcoin network in recent years, mainly due to a recent global cold wave causing some mining farms to temporarily shut down, thereby intensifying overall hash rate fluctuations.

It is noteworthy that since August 2024, Bitcoin mining difficulty has shown a significant upward trend, with a quarterly increase of 24%. This trend indicates that more miners are entering the market and deploying more efficient mining machines, which enhances network security but also intensifies competition among miners. In this context, optimizing energy costs and improving mining efficiency have become particularly important.

Moreover, Bitcoin mining is having a positive impact on regional energy management. Reports indicate that Bitcoin mining has saved Texas approximately $18 billion by replacing expensive gas peaking power plants. At the same time, miners have balanced grid load by flexibly adjusting energy consumption during peak electricity usage, significantly enhancing grid stability. This operational model demonstrates the potential of Bitcoin mining in optimizing energy use and supporting grid operations.

In summary, whether it is the fluctuations in hash rate, adjustments in difficulty, or innovations in energy management, they all indicate that the Bitcoin mining industry is in a phase of continuous optimization and development. In the future, with the deployment of more efficient mining machines and the widespread use of clean energy, Bitcoin mining will further balance cost, efficiency, and sustainability.

Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Data

2. Policy and Regulatory News

Utah State Representative Jordan Teuscher Proposes Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Legislation

On January 20, news broke that Utah State Representative Jordan Teuscher proposed strategic Bitcoin reserve legislation.

Tweet Screenshot

Utah State Proposes Bill: Allows 10% of State Fund to Invest in Bitcoin and Other Cryptocurrencies

On January 22, news emerged that Utah has proposed a new bill allowing the state government to allocate 10% of its funds to investments in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Kansas New Bill Aims to Invest State Public Employee Retirement Fund in Bitcoin ETF

On January 23, Kansas Senator Bowser introduced Senate Bill No. 34, aiming to invest the public employee retirement fund in Bitcoin ETFs. According to the bill's text, it seeks to authorize the Kansas Public Employees Retirement System (KPERS) Trust Committee to invest up to 10% of the Kansas public employee retirement fund in Bitcoin ETF products.

Ohio State Representative: By Allowing Investment in Strategic Bitcoin Reserves, We Can Hedge Against Inflation

On January 26, Ohio State Representative Steve Detremiou stated, "By allowing investment in strategic Bitcoin reserves, we can hedge against inflation and keep Ohio at the forefront of monetary and technological innovation."

3. Mining News

Siberian Power Company Plans to Sue 400 "Illegal" Crypto Miners

On January 21, news reported by Tim Alper indicated that the Siberian power company Irkutsk Energosbyt plans to sue about 400 illegal cryptocurrency miners, accusing them of "stealing" $6.3 million worth of electricity from the grid. The company stated that these miners were illegally using electricity for crypto mining, particularly by installing high-energy-consuming mining equipment in garages, private homes, apartment balconies, and garden plots, leading to increased household grid loads and potential accidents.

As of January 1, 2025, the court has supported 1,348 lawsuits from the power company, with 104 miners opting for out-of-court settlements to pay their electricity bills. Irkutsk Energosbyt stated it would continue its legal actions.

If Mining Hash Rate Long-Term Shifts to AI, Bitcoin Centralization Risks Will Increase

On January 24, Bitfinex released an analysis report stating that the symbiotic potential between Bitcoin mining and AI infrastructure should not be overlooked. AI operations require substantial energy and specialized facilities, and Bitcoin miners already possess these facilities, allowing them to scale down Bitcoin mining during peak AI operations or high energy demand periods and increase mining when energy is more abundant. This dynamic can enhance the economic efficiency of mining operations while maintaining sufficient hash rate for the Bitcoin network.

Whether this shift is beneficial or harmful to the Bitcoin network depends on the diversification of miners and the industry's ability to maintain network security amid changing dynamics. If executed strategically, the combination of AI and Bitcoin mining can promote innovation and efficiency without compromising Bitcoin's decentralized nature.

However, if a significant amount of hash rate is permanently shifted, the Bitcoin network may face greater centralization risks. Choosing AI over other digital assets also aligns with the broader strategic goals of many mining companies. The growth trajectory of the AI industry is expected to achieve long-term scalability and align with emerging technological trends, from automation to advanced data analytics.

VanEck Digital Asset Research Director: Petrobras to Launch Bitcoin Mining R&D Project

On January 25, VanEck's Digital Asset Research Director Matthew Sigel disclosed that Petrobras, one of the world's top ten oil companies, announced it would launch a new R&D project that includes Bitcoin mining and tokenization.

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4. Bitcoin News

This Week, Global Enterprises and Nations Continue to Increase Bitcoin Holdings

El Salvador: Added 12 Bitcoins, bringing total holdings to 6,047.18 Bitcoins, valued at approximately $631 million.

MicroStrategy: Acquired 14,600 Bitcoins in January, bringing total holdings to 461,000 Bitcoins, accounting for 2.2% of Bitcoin supply.

Genius Group: Increased holdings by $5 million worth of Bitcoin, totaling 420 Bitcoins, valued at approximately $40 million.

KULR Technology Group: Increased holdings by $8 million worth of Bitcoin, totaling 510 Bitcoins, with a total investment of $50 million, yielding 127% this year.

Critical Metal Corp: Plans to allocate $100 million to purchase Bitcoin, with a total funding pool of $500 million, timing and scale of purchases to be determined.

Australia Monochrome ETF: Held 295 Bitcoins as of January 22, valued at approximately $49.7196 million.

Fathom Holdings: Plans to purchase up to $500,000 worth of Bitcoin or Bitcoin ETFs within two weeks.

Semler Scientific (holdings): Held 2,321 Bitcoins as of January 17, with a total purchase price of $191.9 million, averaging $82,689 per Bitcoin.

Semler Scientific (financing): Increased financing to $85 million for purchasing more Bitcoin.

Thumzup: The board authorized holding 90% of the company's remaining cash in Bitcoin.

OKG Research: U.S. Public and Private Sectors Hold About 10% of Global Bitcoin

On January 20, OKG Research analyzed that the U.S. public and private sectors collectively hold about 10% of global Bitcoin, with the private sector accounting for about 9%. Although the U.S. government has not directly included Bitcoin in its strategic reserves, the deep involvement of private enterprises like Tesla and MicroStrategy has gradually drawn attention to Bitcoin's potential as an alternative reserve asset.

Compared to the U.S. shares in gold (23% globally) and oil (15% globally) reserves, Bitcoin's status is gaining global market attention amid increasing fiscal deficits and debt pressures.

Polymarket Predicts 58% Chance Trump Will Create Bitcoin Reserve Within 100 Days of Taking Office

On January 20, Polymarket data indicated that the probability of Trump creating a Bitcoin reserve within 100 days of taking office surged to 58%, up from 43% the previous day.

Additionally, the market anticipates a 42% chance that the number of executive orders Trump signs on his first day will exceed 40; Kalshi's implied market expectation is that Trump will sign approximately 40.4 executive orders on his first day. Areas such as immigration, tariffs, foreign policy, and energy are expected to be the focus of Trump's initial policies.

Furthermore, the market generally expects that Trump's presidential executive powers will be significantly strengthened during his second term, with Kalshi showing a 77% probability that he will declare a national emergency within his first 100 days.

WisdomTree Report: With Rise of Institutional Adoption, Bitcoin Is No Longer a Niche Investment

On January 21, CoinDesk reported that WisdomTree's 2025 Crypto Trends report indicated that Bitcoin is no longer a niche investment, with institutional adoption rapidly growing. The report shows that multi-asset portfolios that include Bitcoin consistently outperform those that do not. WisdomTree expects Bitcoin adoption rates to continue rising in 2025 due to increased client demand. The launch of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has propelled the mainstreaming of cryptocurrencies, and more countries may approve trading products (ETPs) for altcoins, including SOL and XRP, in the future. The report also highlights Ethereum's significant position in DeFi, NFTs, and Web3, although its scalability issues remain to be addressed. Stablecoins and asset tokenization are expected to grow significantly, further driving the application of blockchain technology in the global financial system.

Analysis: If Bitcoin Follows Cycles, Year-End Price May Exceed $1 Million

On January 21, CoinDesk analyst James Van Straten published an article stating that if Bitcoin continues to follow the cycle of 2017, it may exceed $1 million by the end of the year. Currently, Bitcoin's price has risen about 550% from the cycle low, which aligns with previous cycles.

The analysis of Bitcoin's four-year cycle has garnered significant attention. This cycle revolves around Bitcoin's halving mechanism, which reduces supply every four years. Typically, the price of Bitcoin sees a substantial increase in the year following each halving. Currently, this cycle continues to exhibit similar trends to the previous two cycles.

As of now, Bitcoin's price has risen approximately 550% from the cycle low during the FTX collapse ($15,500). Data shows that Bitcoin's performance in the current cycle is similar to that of the 2015-2018 cycle: after the cycle low on January 14, 2015, Bitcoin (blue line) also saw an increase of about 550%.

If Bitcoin continues to follow the trend of the 2015-2018 cycle, by the end of the first quarter of 2025, its price could rise approximately 1,100% from the cycle low to reach $186,000. The peak of this cycle may occur in October this year, with an increase of 11,000%, pushing the price to around $1.7 million.

Data: 70 Public Companies Hold Over 612,000 Bitcoins, Valued at Over $61.2 Billion

On January 21, HODL15 Capital released the latest statistics showing that the top 70 publicly listed companies holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets collectively hold 612,734 Bitcoins.

Data Image of Bitcoin Holdings by 70 Public Companies

12 U.S. States Are Actively Promoting Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Bills

On January 22, Cointelegraph reported that 12 U.S. states are actively promoting strategic Bitcoin reserve bills, including:

• Florida, Alabama, New Hampshire;

• Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Dakota;

• Oklahoma, Texas, Wyoming;

• Massachusetts, Utah, Arizona.

Standard Chartered: Institutional Capital Inflows Expected to Drive Bitcoin to $200,000 This Year

On January 23, a report from Standard Chartered indicated that this year, more funds are expected to flow from institutions into Bitcoin compared to last year, particularly with the inclusion of pension funds likely driving Bitcoin to $200,000 this year.

The report stated, "If we take proactive actions as we expect, we believe institutional capital flows will continue. We expect institutional inflows into BTC in 2025 to exceed those in 2024, with new capital potentially coming from long-only funds classified as 'pension funds.' The dominance of institutional capital inflows into ETFs may support the performance of BTC and ETH; we expect their prices to reach $200,000 and $10,000, respectively, by the end of 2025."

CZ: U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Plan Essentially Confirmed

On January 24, CZ commented on X platform regarding "Senator Cynthia Lummis serving as chair of the U.S. Senate Banking Digital Assets Subcommittee," stating, "The U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve is essentially confirmed. Cryptocurrency is advancing at an accelerated pace again."

U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETF Net Inflow of $517 Million

On January 25, according to Farside Investors monitoring, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net inflow of $517 million yesterday, including: BlackRock IBIT: +$155.7 million

Fidelity FBTC: +$186.1 million

Bitwise BITB: -$8.6 million

ARKB: +$168.7 million

Wtree BTCW: +$2.8 million

Grayscale Mini BTC: +$13 million

Coinbase CEO: Bitcoin Is a Better Form of Currency Than Gold

On January 26, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong stated, "Bitcoin is a better form of currency than gold."