HashWhale BTC Mining Weekly | DeepSeek Rises to Impact Global Tech Stocks (1.27-2.02)
On January 27, 2025, the Bitcoin network completed a new round of difficulty adjustment at 11:22:53, with the difficulty value decreased by 2.12% to 108.11T. Currently, the average hash rate of the Bitcoin network is 806.57 EH/s, and the next Bitcoin mining difficulty is expected to increase by 1.82% on February 9, rising to 110.08 T.Author: Mongqi | Editor: Mongqi
1. Bitcoin Market and Mining Data
From January 27 to February 2, 2025, Bitcoin's price showed significant volatility, with market sentiment repeatedly switching between bullish and bearish, as detailed below:
This week, Bitcoin exhibited a trend of oscillation and consolidation, followed by a rapid decline, a rebound breakthrough, and then a drop. The market saw intense competition between bulls and bears. The price briefly fell below $100,000 but quickly rebounded, forming key support at $104,000 and $102,000. On the evening of the 30th, it briefly broke through $106,100 but failed to stabilize, subsequently retracing to around $102,000 and further dipping to around $99,540. Overall, the market remains in a consolidation pattern, leaning weakly, with a focus on the upward resistance at $105,200 and the downward support at $98,000 in the short term.
Bitcoin Price Trend (2025/01/27-2025/02/02)
Market Dynamics and Macroeconomic Background
- Capital Flow: Institutional funds are cautious, and market sentiment is increasingly wait-and-see.
This week, Bitcoin market capital flows showed a divergent trend, with net inflows to exchanges rising, indicating that some investors chose to take profits, creating some selling pressure. In the derivatives market, perpetual contract funding rates were slightly negative, reflecting strong short-selling sentiment in the short term, and leveraged funds were cautious about high-level breakouts. Meanwhile, the continued outflow of Grayscale GBTC puts downward pressure on the market, while the slowing net inflow of spot Bitcoin ETFs indicates that institutional funds have not provided sufficient buying support, resulting in an overall wait-and-see attitude in the market.
- Technical Analysis: Oscillation and consolidation pattern, with key support and resistance levels being tested alternately.
Bitcoin maintained an oscillation and consolidation pattern this week, repeatedly testing the support zones at $102,000 and $104,000, with buying support remaining relatively strong. However, after rebounding above $105,200, it failed to break through effectively, indicating heavy selling pressure above. From a technical indicator perspective, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) oscillated around 50, failing to provide a clear trend signal, while trading volume did not significantly increase during key breakouts, reflecting insufficient market momentum. Overall, the market remains in a consolidation phase; if $102,000 is lost, it may further retrace to $98,500, while a breakout above $105,200 could push prices up to the $106,500 - $108,000 range.
- Market Sentiment: Intensified competition between bulls and bears, with a decline in short-term risk appetite.
In terms of market sentiment, Bitcoin's Fear and Greed Index fell from the "Greed" zone to "Neutral," indicating a cooling of speculative sentiment and a weakening of investor confidence in the short-term market. Additionally, on-chain activity decreased, with average daily trading volume declining, suggesting a lack of strong new capital inflows in the short term. Implied volatility (IV) in the options market slightly increased, reflecting an expectation of greater future volatility, but overall risk appetite has declined, with investors remaining in a cautious wait-and-see phase.
- Industry News and Macroeconomic Background: Policies and market dynamics influence market expectations.
On the macroeconomic front, with the upcoming February FOMC meeting, market expectations for interest rate cuts have cooled, and the US dollar index remains high, putting pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin. Additionally, the slowing inflow of spot Bitcoin ETFs has weakened market liquidity support, limiting Bitcoin's short-term upward momentum. On the other hand, significant advancements in the AI industry have triggered market risk aversion, particularly with the rise of the domestic AI model "DeepSeek," impacting global tech stocks, which led Bitcoin to fall below the $100,000 mark, hitting a recent low. Overall, macroeconomic policies and developments in the tech industry are shaping the short-term trends in the crypto market, and investors need to continuously monitor policy expectations and industry movements.
Hash Rate Changes:
From January 27 to February 2, 2025, the Bitcoin network hash rate experienced significant fluctuations, reflecting the dynamic adjustments of miner computing power and the impact of market conditions on mining activities. From January 27 to 28, the Bitcoin hash rate initially stabilized around 775 EH/s, briefly dipped, and then quickly rebounded to 873.35 EH/s, before falling back to the 850 EH/s range and further declining to 752.36 EH/s in the evening. On the evening of January 28, the hash rate oscillated around 800 EH/s. From January 29 to 30, the hash rate remained around 800 EH/s, with a slight increase on the evening of the 29th, reaching 870.30 EH/s. On January 30, the hash rate maintained around 835 EH/s but dropped to 754.84 EH/s in the evening, indicating some fluctuations in computing power. From January 31 to February 1, the hash rate continued to adjust. On January 31, it was relatively stable, operating around 750 EH/s, and then rose to 815.35 EH/s in the evening. However, on February 1, the hash rate first dropped to 659.12 EH/s and then quickly rebounded to 856.65 EH/s. On February 2, the hash rate surged to 1034.99 EH/s and then oscillated up to 1067.35 EH/s, indicating a dramatic change in network computing power in a short time.
Bitcoin Network Hash Rate Data
Mining Revenue:
According to data from The Block, Bitcoin miners' total revenue in January reached $1.38 billion, slightly down from $1.44 billion in December 2024, but still maintaining a high revenue level, indicating robust miner profitability. From January 27 to February 2, miner revenue was influenced by Bitcoin price fluctuations and changes in block rewards. During this period, Bitcoin's price briefly fell below $100,000 before rebounding, while the hash rate experienced significant fluctuations, reflecting the dual effects of miner computing power adjustments and market sentiment changes. Additionally, transaction fees contributed to miner revenue during this cycle, with some periods showing slight increases in miner income due to changes in network congestion. Overall, Bitcoin miners' profitability remains high this week, but future attention should be paid to Bitcoin price trends and mining difficulty adjustments, as these factors may impact miners' long-term profitability.
Bitcoin Miner Revenue Data
Energy Costs and Mining Efficiency:
On January 27, 2025, the Bitcoin network completed a new round of difficulty adjustment at 11:22:53, with the difficulty value reduced by 2.12% to 108.11T. This adjustment lowered the mining difficulty for miners and improved overall mining efficiency. Currently, the average computing power of the Bitcoin network is 806.57 EH/s, and the next Bitcoin mining difficulty is expected to increase by 1.82% to 110.08T on February 9. With the occurrence of difficulty adjustments, miners' operational efficiency has also been optimized, thereby affecting overall energy consumption.
On February 1, news reported that due to a cold wave in the United States, electricity prices rose, leading to a decrease in Bitcoin mining difficulty for the first time since the end of September 2024. According to statistics from Bitcoin mining company Luxor, the US accounts for 36% of global Bitcoin computing power, with Texas contributing nearly half. The polar cold wave in January increased electricity costs in the US, impacting mining company profitability, which led to the difficulty adjustment on January 27. In the previous six months, there had only been two decreases in mining difficulty. Luxor expects that as temperatures warm up, computing power will gradually stabilize. Additionally, some US mining companies, such as Riot Platforms, are planning to shift some computing power to AI and high-performance computing businesses to reduce market volatility risks.
Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Data
2. Policy and Regulatory News
Arizona Approves Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Bill
On January 28, news reported that lawmakers in Arizona proposed a bill allowing public funds to invest in Bitcoin and other digital assets, which was approved by the state Senate Finance Committee on January 27 with a vote of 5 to 2.
South Dakota and Kentucky Legislators Plan to Propose Bitcoin Reserve Legislation
On January 29, news from cryptoslate reported that South Dakota Representative Logan Manhart announced he would introduce a bill in the South Dakota House to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve. He added that this is one of the few opportunities for the government to take proactive action. Meanwhile, Kentucky Representative TJ Roberts stated he would also propose similar legislation in the first week back at the General Assembly.
Utah Bitcoin Bill Approved by House Economic Development and Workforce Services Committee
On January 30, news from Cointelegraph revealed that Utah's Bitcoin bill has been approved by the House Economic Development and Workforce Services Committee. The bill has now been submitted to the House for consideration. This bill will pave the way for Utah to invest in Bitcoin and other digital assets.
Indiana Representative Proposes Legislation Allowing Retirement Funds to Purchase Bitcoin ETFs
On January 30, news from Bitcoin Magazine disclosed that Indiana Representative Jake Teshka proposed legislation allowing retirement funds to purchase Bitcoin ETFs.
El Salvador Congress Revises Bitcoin Law to Comply with IMF Agreement
On January 30, news reported that the El Salvador Congress swiftly passed legislation to revise its Bitcoin law to comply with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) agreement. Ruling party member Elisa Rosales stated that the amendment aims to ensure the permanence of Bitcoin as legal tender while promoting its practical application.
Illinois Proposes Bitcoin Reserve Bill Requiring a Holding Period of at Least 5 Years
On January 30, Illinois Representative John Cabello proposed HB1844, which suggests establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve fund in the state treasury. The bill stipulates that Bitcoin must be held for at least 5 years after entering state custody before it can be transferred, sold, or converted into other cryptocurrencies. The bill has now been submitted to the rules committee, awaiting final approval from legislators.
Screenshot of HB1844 Bill
Texas Lieutenant Governor Announces "Bitcoin Reserve" as a Legislative Priority for 2025
On January 30, news reported that Texas Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick announced the state's legislative priorities for 2025, which include a proposal to establish a Texas Bitcoin reserve. Texas joins at least five other states in the US that are pushing to establish Bitcoin (BTC) or cryptocurrency reserves, including Arizona and Utah, where strategic reserve bills have passed through committees.
3. Mining News
Russia's Largest Power Supplier Rosseti to Launch Cryptocurrency Mining Business
On January 27, news from Cryptonews reported that Russia's largest power supplier, Rosseti, announced it would launch a cryptocurrency mining business, planning to act as a hosting operator for mining infrastructure, focusing on underutilized power supply centers. The company stated that this initiative would help improve the utilization of power facilities and increase the company's revenue.
DCG Spins Off New Cryptocurrency Mining Subsidiary Fortitude Mining
On January 30, news reported that Digital Currency Group (DCG) has spun off a new cryptocurrency mining subsidiary. According to an announcement on the social media platform X on January 29, Fortitude Mining has been established as an independent mining business of DCG. Previously, the mining business was part of Foundry, a decentralized mining and staking service. The financial details of the acquisition have not been disclosed.
Fortitude Mining's website lists Andrea Childs as CEO. Childs joined Foundry in 2020 and subsequently led the new DCG subsidiary.
Hedge Fund D.E. Shaw Takes Stake in Bitcoin Miner Riot Platforms
On January 30, news reported that hedge fund D.E. Shaw has established a position in Riot Platforms (RIOT.O) and may push the company to make changes, according to two informed sources, making it the second activist shareholder in this cryptocurrency mining company.
Reuters was unable to determine the size of D.E. Shaw's stake in Riot, and representatives from both Riot and D.E. Shaw declined to comment.
4. Bitcoin News
Global Corporate and National Bitcoin Holdings (This Week's Statistics)
MicroStrategy increased its holdings by 10,107 Bitcoin at an average price of approximately $105,596, bringing its total holdings to 471,107 BTC, with a purchase cost of about $30.4 billion and an average price of about $64,511. Additionally, MicroStrategy submitted a mixed securities registration application, planning to use potential proceeds to further increase its Bitcoin holdings.
Metaplanet plans to raise approximately 116 billion yen (about $745 million) to purchase Bitcoin, which would set a record for the largest Bitcoin fundraising in Asian stock market history. At the same time, Metaplanet announced its Bitcoin strategy, planning to hold 10,000 BTC by the end of 2025 and further increase to 21,000 BTC by the end of 2026.
Nuvve plans to allocate 30% of its idle funds to purchase Bitcoin to diversify its treasury assets and support Bitcoin payment options.
El Salvador currently holds 6,049.18 Bitcoin, worth approximately $618 million.
BlackRock's IBIT spot Bitcoin ETF holds 576,529.33 BTC, accounting for 2% of the total Bitcoin supply, with a market value exceeding $58.8 billion.
Worksport announced the completion of its first Bitcoin and XRP purchase and plans to continue increasing its holdings while adding cryptocurrency payment options on its official website.
Monochrome's spot Bitcoin ETF (IBTC) holds 305 BTC, with a market value exceeding $50 million, approximately $50.2765 million.
Thumzup Media Corporation released a shareholder letter disclosing its holding of 19.106 BTC, and the company will allocate up to 90% of its liquid assets to Bitcoin based on board-approved strategies.
Matador announced spending approximately $500,000 to acquire 3.38 Bitcoin, bringing its current holdings to nearly 65 BTC, with plans to continue increasing its Bitcoin holdings.
Genius Group seeks up to $55 million in equity and additional loan financing to purchase BTC to enrich its Bitcoin reserves, with expected net proceeds from the equity offering reaching $33 million and additional loan financing up to $22 million.
Trump: 100% Support for the Cryptocurrency Industry and Will Elevate Bitcoin to New Heights
On January 27, news reported that Bitcoin Magazine CEO David Bailey stated on platform X that US President Trump mentioned in their conversation, "He will 100% support the cryptocurrency industry and will elevate Bitcoin to new heights." David Bailey also thanked Trump for fulfilling his commitments to the crypto industry in the post.
Rich Dad Poor Dad Author: February Will See the Largest Stock Market Crash in History, with Significant Funds Flowing into Bitcoin, Gold, and Silver
On January 27, news reported that Robert Kiyosaki, author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad," reiterated his prediction from his 2013 book, stating that February 2025 will see the largest stock market crash in history. He indicated that this crash would lead to significant funds flowing from the stock and bond markets into Bitcoin, gold, and silver.
He predicts that Bitcoin will see substantial growth and advises investors to position themselves early in cryptocurrency and precious metal assets. He emphasized that even a small investment, such as one Satoshi, could yield significant returns. Kiyosaki views this crash as an opportunity for "discounted" assets while reminding investors to stay away from "fake assets."
Previously, the author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad" stated that buying one Satoshi of Bitcoin could also lead to wealth.
Screenshot of social media post
Tesla Reports $600 Million Profit from Bitcoin Holdings in Fourth Quarter
On January 30, news reported that Tesla's fourth-quarter report indicated that its Bitcoin holdings generated a profit of $600 million, as Tesla adopted new accounting rules allowing the company to value digital assets at market prices each quarter.
According to data from Arkham Intelligence, the electric vehicle manufacturer holds 11,509 BTC, estimated to be worth $1.19 billion at current market prices. However, Tesla did not disclose its Bitcoin holdings in its fourth-quarter 2024 report, only mentioning a $600 million profit from "digital assets" valued at market prices.
10x Research: Bitcoin May Face Supply Tightening, Making Stable Returns from Altcoins Increasingly Difficult
On January 30, news reported that 10x Research analysts stated that Bitcoin may face supply tightening, although the market still lacks key market structure data support. They pointed out that there are currently several positive signals in the market, including on-chain data, seasonal trends, breakout indicators, the Chinese New Year effect, a neutral Federal Reserve policy, and a crypto-friendly president. However, these factors have yet to resonate with market structure.
Additionally, 10x Research noted that obtaining stable returns from altcoins has become increasingly difficult in the current bull market. Only during the period from November 5, the US election, to the employment report on December 6/9, did altcoins perform strongly, while the Fed's hawkish stance in mid-December put pressure on the market.
Bitwise: Trump's Cryptocurrency Order May Disrupt Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle
On January 30, news reported that Bitwise's Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stated that cryptocurrencies would not "completely overcome" the four-year cycle, but he indicated that market corrections would be "shorter and shallower" than before. The recent cryptocurrency executive order issued by President Donald Trump may disrupt the four-year boom and bust cycle that the cryptocurrency market has experienced over the past decade.
Hougan stated in a note on January 29 that Trump's comprehensive order issued on January 23, along with changes from the Securities and Exchange Commission, has brought about "the full mainstreaming of cryptocurrencies," allowing banks and Wall Street to "actively enter this space."
He added that cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are "large enough" to bring in billions of dollars from new investors, but he believes that Trump's executive order regarding exploring the establishment of a digital asset reserve and drafting a regulatory framework "will bring in trillions of dollars."
Image related to the four-year cycle
Standard Chartered: The Emergence of DeepSeek AI May Benefit Bitcoin and Other Risk Assets
On January 30, news reported that Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick stated that the emergence of DeepSeek AI may benefit Bitcoin and other risk assets, as DeepSeek's low-cost characteristics help reduce inflation, which may benefit assets like Bitcoin that are not AI-related.
Although most analysts expect the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates, some opinions suggest a "slightly dovish surprise" may occur, which could alleviate the short-term impact of DeepSeek on Bitcoin prices. Kendrick expects Bitcoin to rebound in the coming days, but the specific trend still depends on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's policy stance. He believes that if the Fed's attitude is neutral, Bitcoin prices may rise back above $105,000.
Czech Central Bank to Vote on $7 Billion Bitcoin Reserve Proposal, Finance Minister Warns of BTC Volatility Risks
On January 30, news reported that the Czech National Bank (CNB) would vote today on a $7 billion Bitcoin reserve proposal, but Czech Finance Minister Zbynek Stanjura warned of Bitcoin's high volatility, believing it does not meet the central bank's stability requirements.
CNB Governor Michl plans to propose investing up to 5% of reserves in Bitcoin, noting that interest in Bitcoin has continued to grow since institutions like BlackRock launched BTC spot ETFs. However, he also acknowledged Bitcoin's high volatility and stated that further assessment of its potential role in central bank reserves is needed.
If the proposal is approved, the CNB could hold at least $7 billion in Bitcoin, which would be part of its total reserves of $146 billion. The proposal has received some support in the local Czech industry, with Trezor analyst Lucien Bourdon stating that the Czech Republic has long been at the forefront of Bitcoin innovation, including the world's first mining pool, hardware wallets, and large Bitcoin conferences.
Analyst: Bitcoin Expected to Reach New Highs by End of This Quarter
On February 1, news reported that Swyftx Chief Analyst Pav Hundal stated that the current bearish sentiment has become very tense, and the macro environment for cryptocurrencies indicates that Bitcoin is expected to reach new highs by the end of this quarter.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes previously predicted that Bitcoin could fall to the range of $70,000 to $75,000, which, if it occurs, could trigger a "mini financial crisis." However, Dr. Sean Dawson, head of research at Derive, recently stated that the likelihood of Bitcoin falling to the $75,000 level in the first quarter is less than 10%.
