On-chain meme market is rising again. Do "P rookies" still have a chance to become "P marshals"?

Author: CMed

Source: BlockBeats

On the evening of January 18th, U.S. time, Trump launched his eponymous token $TRUMP, causing Solana to surge nearly 50%, breaking previous highs and approaching the $300 mark, although it has since retraced somewhat, reigniting on-chain sentiment in the Solana network.

Another Dose of "Emotional Stimulant" On-Chain

From the perspective of on-chain data analysis, the active address data and transaction data on the Solana network rebounded sharply after the release of $TRUMP, even nearing all-time highs. The Solana network saw a significant influx of existing Web3 funds and some incremental funds from Web2 introduced by Moonshot in a short period. Moonshot officially stated that after being recommended as the preferred purchase method on the TRUMP website, the platform's trading volume reached $400 million within 12 hours, and over 400,000 new users joined the Solana ecosystem through its application, reflecting the heightened on-chain sentiment in the Solana network.

After the issuance of the TRUMP coin, the Gas fees on the Solana network also experienced severe fluctuations. Due to high transaction demand, there was significant transaction congestion, leading to a sharp rise in transaction fees in a short time, which even caused Binance to temporarily suspend withdrawals on the exchange and halt transactions on the Solana network.

Infinite Loop of PVP

Compared to November and December, from the perspective of well-known figures in the Web space issuing tokens, the only large-cap projects that emerged are TRUMP and Mrs. TRUMP. Meanwhile, the official meme coin released at the top-tier cryptocurrency conference Wagmi MIAMI held from January 21 to January 24 quickly "went to zero" amid intense PVP; the eponymous token ZACHXBT, officially "recognized" by on-chain detective ZACHXBT, also went to zero due to its "lack of vision in withdrawing liquidity"; the slogan "America Is Back," frequently mentioned by Trump during his inauguration speech, also saw its eponymous meme coin "AIB" have a lifecycle of only 6 hours. The atmosphere of on-chain PVP has intensified, turning trading "on-chain" into a logic of "running fast."

However, when we look back at the active on-chain sentiment from September to November, "big dogs" emerged one after another, with continuous iterations in AI Agent projects like Griffain, ARC, and Swarms; there were also new concept tokens related to DeSci such as Drugs, RIF, URO, and MIRA; the short-term "wealth creation myth" may only belong to $Trump.

After Trump took office as President of the United States, the tangible benefits for Web3 may only be the issuance of the eponymous meme token, as he did not mention the cryptocurrency market during his inauguration speech. The incremental funds for Web3 after Trump took office may only come from Moonshot's purchase of its eponymous token, which undoubtedly drained a significant amount of funds from Web3. When the market cap of the Trump token approached $8 billion, the total market cap of the cryptocurrency market shrank by $20 billion. The smart money with a vision on-chain has been drained, which is undoubtedly a heavy blow to memes. After all, "pulling the market is the real perspective"; without money, there is no perspective to pull the market.

Returning to the AI Agent concept, it currently seems to have nearly exited the "primary selection" stage and is entering the "elimination" stage. Many AI Agent-related tokens that could be issued have already been released, similar to the recent "hackathon frenzy": the phase of projects winning awards at hackathons and intensively issuing tokens has ended. Now, it is transitioning from "0 to 1" towards "1 to 100," with bets on which AI Agent will be the next to go public, while those already listed continue to compete in ecological technology.

CEX "Pressuring" DEX, Does Meme Narrative Still Have a Future?

Currently, AI Agent appears to be firmly established as the most important narrative of this cycle. AI Meme is continuously evolving; at present, the first phase of memes: GOAT ACT has basically been eliminated, being a type that mainly follows the decline rather than the rise; while the second phase of AI Agent has become the most aggressive type during each market rebound. The "anti-VC" wave in this cycle is still ongoing, with the recently launched so-called "value coins" and "VC coins": SOLV, ME, etc., mostly dropping immediately after listing, with no one in the market "picking up" these "value coins," and even no one discussing "value coins" anymore.

For retail investors, the miracle of Web3 may only occur on-chain. Coins that have already been listed have to some extent exhausted their positive news, and in the increasingly difficult "up and down pin" hellish market, surviving through contracts is not easy, let alone creating trading miracles. Currently, the very low fees on the active Solana network and Base network have significantly reduced the entry costs for most retail investors.

CEX exchanges are drifting further away from retail investors, while on-chain, bypassing VCs and exchanges, retail investors can buy good tokens at low prices. On-chain, starting from zero, countless giants with market caps in the billions of dollars and thousands of times returns have emerged. The future is on-chain; as DEX trading volumes gradually increase, perhaps one day soon, DEX trading volumes will surpass CEX.

From a more macro perspective, the narrative on-chain is far from over. Trump has yet to announce other favorable policies for cryptocurrency; if he relaxes regulations on cryptocurrency, more Web2 funds will flow into Web3 as incremental funds, appearing not only on exchanges but also on-chain in forms like Moonshot or more direct forms, continuing to bring forth "big dogs" and "big events," driving the growth of imagination, transforming PVP into PVE, and attracting Web2 with a sustained wealth creation effect is the sustainable and appealing narrative.