Preface

Recently, a draft of an "executive order supporting cryptocurrency," allegedly drafted by the Trump team, unexpectedly leaked, quickly stirring up a storm in the market. The draft proposes that in the future, plans to include cryptocurrency in the U.S. strategic reserves may prioritize cryptocurrency projects established in the U.S. and supported by U.S. institutions, such as XRP, SOL, and USDC. Following the news, XRP and SOL saw significant short-term increases, sparking heated discussions in the market.

Notably, shortly after the exposure of this executive order draft, Trump himself announced on Twitter the issuance of a token named "TRUMP," promoting a "very special Trump community" to celebrate all the "victories" we represent. The market's interpretation of Trump's personal involvement in "issuing tokens" was quite enthusiastic: some viewed it as a signal of a "deeper binding of politics and the crypto circle," while others questioned whether this would trigger broader regulatory controversies.

Looking back at Trump's repeated "clear support" for cryptocurrency during the election campaign, his proposed "Ten New Policies for Cryptocurrency" also became an important factor in attracting a large number of crypto enthusiasts. Since successfully taking office, Trump has been gradually fulfilling his promises: for example, appointing Musk as the head of the "DOGE" Government Efficiency Department, appointing David Sacks as the head of cryptocurrency affairs at the White House, and appointing Paul Atkins as the new SEC chairman. These personnel changes reflect a strong signal: the Trump 2.0 government is likely to "fully embrace" cryptocurrency from a policy perspective.

So, what exactly do the "Ten New Policies for Cryptocurrency" include? How do they align with Trump's new appointments? What impact will they have on the cryptocurrency ecosystem in the U.S. and globally? This article will start from the current state of the U.S. economy, analyze why Trump chooses cryptocurrency as a "breakthrough" under the pressure of trade deficits and national debt crises, and explore the investment opportunities hidden in this wave of cryptocurrency globalization, providing readers with a more comprehensive perspective on the "Trump Cryptocurrency Economic Framework."

（The following content is based on current public information, speculating and analyzing the development of U.S. politics and cryptocurrency around 2025, and does not represent established facts。）

1. Trade Deficit + National Debt Crisis

1.1 Starting from the "Reagan Cycle"

Source:MacroMicro.com

To understand Trump's 2.0 era's preference for cryptocurrency, we must first review the long-standing "old problems" in the U.S. economic structure—trade deficits and national debt crises.

After World War II, the U.S., leveraging its advantages as a victorious nation and its strong power, massively injected dollars (then pegged to gold under the Bretton Woods system) into European countries through the "Marshall Plan" to assist these war-torn economies in rebuilding, while also solidifying relations between the U.S. and its allies. However, as Europe gradually recovered, countries were unwilling to accept the fixed exchange rate system, and they began to exchange their dollars for more stable gold, leading to a continuous loss of U.S. gold reserves. Ultimately, in the 1970s, the dollar completely decoupled from gold.

During the Reagan era (the 1980s), to consolidate the dollar's hegemonic position, the U.S. adopted a policy of "significant tax cuts, increased defense spending, and high interest rates," establishing a global dollar circulation system, commonly referred to as the "Reagan Cycle":

1. High interest rates attract global capital inflow into the U.S., with investors purchasing U.S. Treasury bonds and other dollar assets for high returns;

2. A large influx of capital leads to dollar appreciation, making imports cheaper for the U.S.;

3. Export prices rise, losing competitiveness, and the trade deficit continues to expand;

4. These trade partners then recycle the dollars they acquire back into the U.S. by purchasing U.S. Treasury bonds, supporting the U.S. fiscal deficit and consumption.

Source:HUATAI SECURITIES RESEARCH

This cycle established the strong international position of the dollar but also sowed the seeds of an ever-expanding trade deficit and U.S. debt risks.

Source:Department of the Treasury 

This cycle lasted nearly 50 years, and the rapid accumulation of federal debt, coupled with rising debt interest rates (compared to the past decade), has driven up the borrowing costs for the federal government. In fact, by December 2024, the interest payments on national debt will exceed those of previous years. Interest costs have become the third-largest expenditure category for the federal government, surpassing spending on Medicare, income security, Medicaid, and veterans' benefits and services.

Source: Department of the Treasury 

1.2 China: The Largest Source of U.S. Trade Deficits

Source:MacroMicro.com

According to statistics from the U.S. Department of Commerce over the years, the largest trade deficit for the U.S. currently comes from China, making China one of the largest creditors of the U.S. After 2018, Trump initiated a trade war with China, hoping to reduce the deficit by raising tariffs, but overall, the U.S. still maintains a considerable trade deficit. For the Trump administration in 2025, how to reduce the trade deficit remains a major issue.

1.3 Trump's "Two-Pronged Approach" and "Alternative Path"

Trump's administration has two main strategies for reducing the trade deficit:

1. Cutting costs: Raising tariffs to reduce imports.

2. Increasing revenue: Boosting exports.

However, after implementing a tariff war, other countries may impose higher tariffs on U.S. products, which could backfire. Therefore, Trump 2.0 will still adopt stimulative measures such as "reducing corporate taxes" to attract manufacturing and service industries back to the U.S. However, relying solely on corporate tax reductions is insufficient; a new tool is needed to ensure that the production returning to the U.S. can smoothly export.

This time, Trump chose cryptocurrency.

2. "Ten New Policies for Cryptocurrency": From Cutting to Building

From Trump's 2.0 economic policies, it is not difficult to see the continuation of the "Reagan model": using some dollar substitutes or dollar external circulation tools to consolidate the U.S.'s global financial position. The difference is that during the Reagan era, it primarily relied on U.S. Treasury bonds, while Trump seeks to create a new world economic cycle through the vigorous promotion of cryptocurrency.

Looking back at the "Ten New Policies for Cryptocurrency," they can be summarized into three main lines: "Cutting, Developing, Building."

2.1 Cutting

1. Stop the "crusade" against cryptocurrency.

Within an hour of taking office, Trump immediately fired former SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and appointed a more lenient regulator, halting the frequent enforcement actions against cryptocurrency companies, making the regulatory environment more friendly to blockchain enterprises.

2. End the illegal suppression of the cryptocurrency industry in the U.S.

Ending the illegal suppression of the cryptocurrency industry in the U.S. means that Trump may abolish the SAB 121 cryptocurrency accounting principle after taking office. SAB 121 is an accounting announcement issued by the SEC in 2022, requiring institutions holding crypto assets to record them as liabilities and correspondingly record the associated assets. In practice, this is almost equivalent to "prohibiting banks from custodial services for cryptocurrencies," as the banking system finds it difficult to value and disclose according to this rule.

If SAB 121 is abolished, traditional financial institutions in the U.S. can legitimately provide cryptocurrency custodial services, offering users more convenient custodial solutions than hardware wallets and multi-signature wallets, which also means that the barriers between traditional finance and cryptocurrency will be broken down.

3. Prevent the development of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs).

Trump has repeatedly stated that he will not allow the government to issue CBDCs, believing that this would give the government too much financial control and infringe on personal privacy. Instead, he emphasizes the need to uphold the public's right to self-custody of digital assets, adhering to the principles of "decentralization" and "freedom."

4. Reduce the prison sentence of Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht.

Trump may grant "clemency" or significantly reduce the sentence of Ross Ulbricht, which is both a political gesture and a symbol of a renewed recognition of the original "libertarian" values of cryptocurrency. On the regulatory front, this may also provide more legal space for private use of cryptocurrency.

2.2 Developing

1. Establish a Bitcoin strategic reserve.

The Trump administration is inclined to convert the Bitcoin currently held by the U.S. (including some confiscated by law enforcement) into a national strategic reserve, further solidifying Bitcoin's status as "digital gold." Over the past decade, Bitcoin has increasingly been viewed by institutions and investors as an anti-inflation and risk-averse asset. If a world power like the U.S. formally includes BTC as a reserve, both allies and competitors may follow suit.

2. Prevent the government from selling Bitcoin.

In line with the "establishment of a strategic reserve," Trump hopes to prevent the U.S. government from selling its held Bitcoin on the market, in order to stabilize the "official recognition" of BTC. This will undoubtedly become an important factor in driving up Bitcoin prices.

3. Use cryptocurrency to address debt issues.

The U.S. government may incorporate confiscated Bitcoin or other crypto assets into fiscal measures to pay part of the national debt interest, alleviating government debt pressure. In 2024, federal government debt interest expenditures will exceed $880 billion (accounting for 3.1% of GDP). If Bitcoin and other digital assets can participate in fiscal operations, it means that cryptocurrency has the opportunity to enter the realm of national fiscal tools.

Sources:Congressional Budget Office and Office of Management and Budget

3.3 Building

1. Make the U.S. a powerhouse for Bitcoin mining.

By lowering energy costs and providing tax incentives, attract mining companies to establish operations in the U.S. to control a higher proportion of global BTC hash power.

2. Promote the "21st Century Financial Innovation and Technology Act."

This act may clarify the regulatory boundaries of the SEC and CFTC regarding cryptocurrency, strengthening information disclosure requirements. If Trump leans towards placing most cryptocurrencies under CFTC jurisdiction, it means that more tokens will be classified as "commodities" rather than "securities." This would create convenience for U.S. domestic companies to issue tokens abroad; once tokens are purchased by overseas users, it equates to the U.S. gaining "export income," helping to reduce the trade deficit.

3. Accelerate the establishment of a stablecoin system.

The Trump administration plans to allow compliant stablecoin issuers to directly access the Federal Reserve's payment system, achieving faster settlements and lower costs, further expanding the dollar's trading advantages globally.

3. Just Before Taking Office: Trump Issues Tokens on Twitter

On January 17, 2025, Trump announced the launch of a cryptocurrency named $TRUMP on his social media platform. The token's price skyrocketed over 240 times within just 24 hours, with its fully circulating market value soaring from zero to $45 billion. Trump holds 80% of the token supply through his company CIC Digital LLC, which means his personal net worth could increase by tens of billions of dollars as a result. As mentioned earlier, the U.S. faces challenges of trade deficits and national debt crises, so it needs to "make money for itself." Trump's token issuance provides a reference for Wall Street institutions and global financing institutions, officially challenging traditional web2 financing methods with high-efficiency financing on web3 chains. Given the characteristics of the Trump 2.0 government, the future $TRUMP may be used for government financial planning or as a buffer for national debt interest costs.

Sources:X

4. From Twitter to the White House: Building a Dual Engine of Cryptocurrency and Technology

In addition to the "Ten New Policies," Trump's personnel arrangements have also released numerous signals:

4.1 Establishing D.O.G.E. (Government Efficiency Department)

On November 12, 2024, Trump announced the formation of the "Department of Government Efficiency" (D.O.G.E.), co-led by tech giant Musk and young political figure Vivek Ramaswamy, aimed at reducing government bureaucracy, streamlining regulation, and cutting wasteful spending. Musk's well-known affection for DOGE has led to rampant speculation in the market that "Dogecoin may receive special support."

4.2 Appointing David Sacks as the White House Head of AI and Cryptocurrency Affairs

Sources:X

On December 5, 2024, Trump announced a significant appointment on social media: former PayPal COO David Sacks will be responsible for AI and cryptocurrency affairs at the White House. Sacks is a long-time supporter of Solana and has invested in the crypto fund Multicoin Capital, maintaining a close relationship with Musk from the PayPal era. This move indicates that the integration of the blockchain and AI industry chains will receive heightened attention.

4.3 Paul Atkins Appointed SEC Chairman

Sources:X

On December 5, 2024, Trump officially nominated former SEC Commissioner Paul Atkins as SEC Chairman. Atkins has a relatively open attitude towards digital assets and has consistently called for a balance between market transparency and investor protection. The arrival of the new SEC chairman will undoubtedly further promote the compliance and institutional development of cryptocurrency.

5. The Combination of Technology and Cryptocurrency: Boosting U.S. Exports

From these new appointments, it is evident that Trump 2.0 places great importance on the integration of "blockchain + AI," which is directly related to the macro goal of "increasing exports."

Currently, AI companies represented by OpenAI generally face high cost inputs and unclear profit models. OpenAI's total revenue for the entire year of 2024 was $4 billion, but it reported a loss of $5 billion. The revenue primarily comes from the monthly subscription fees of paid users of ChatGPT. Although the paid subscription revenue of ChatGPT has a certain scale, it is far from covering the enormous R&D and cloud computing costs.

If cryptocurrency is integrated into its business model, for example:

1. Suppose OpenAI issues its own token, and users need to purchase this token to access AI services like ChatGPT;

2. Global users need to exchange dollars or other fiat currencies for tokens to make payments for these services;

Once this model is widely implemented, each token purchaser from around the world would equate to exporting services to the U.S. and paying "foreign exchange," thus bypassing many tariffs and regulatory barriers, helping the U.S. form a new digital product export.

6. Unlimited Global Trading of Crypto Assets: An Alternative Breakthrough Amidst De-Globalization

In the current climate of rising de-globalization sentiments, many countries (such as China and India) have strict foreign exchange controls, posing significant obstacles to traditional foreign trade. The characteristics of cryptocurrency, which allows for cross-border free circulation without being limited by traditional SWIFT systems or banking regulations, provide a natural advantage for the Trump 2.0 government to open up new global trading channels. With sufficient policy support, the U.S.'s first-mover advantage in the cryptocurrency field may further expand.

7. Investment Opportunities and Risk Warnings

7.1 Investment Opportunities

1. Prioritize projects led by U.S. teams or companies.

The Trump administration clearly favors supporting "Made in America" blockchain projects, such as XRP, SOL, and USDC. If related projects can collaborate with the White House, consortiums, and financial institutions, they may gain advantages in regulation, compliance, and bank custody.

2. Pay attention to tokens included in Trump's "white list" (such as WLFI).

The DeFi project World Liberty Financial (WLFI) supported by the Trump family and its token list also represent potential avenues. However, be cautious, as such projects often carry "policy bias" risks; if political winds shift, the projects may also face compliance risks.

3. Focus on endorsements from large compliant institutions.

In a more favorable regulatory environment in the U.S., traditional financial giants or compliant platforms like Coinbase, Grayscale, and BlackRock remain important barometers. Crypto projects supported by them are usually more robust.

4. Do not overlook MEME culture.

Both Trump and Musk strongly advocate "community libertarianism" on social media, which aligns with the spirit of MEME coins like Dogecoin (DOGE). As the leading MEME coin, DOGE has the potential for significant price increases in any policy or social media hotspot event.

7.2 Risk Warnings

Regulatory changes: Despite Trump's leadership, there are still different interest groups within the U.S. Congress, Treasury, Federal Reserve, and judicial departments, and policy advancement is not guaranteed to be smooth.

Market volatility: The cryptocurrency market has historically been highly volatile, and any unexpected events (black swans or macro policy changes) can lead to price crashes.

8. Conclusion

Under the dual pressures of national debt and trade deficits, the U.S. urgently needs to expand outward income. The cryptocurrency "shortcut" strategy chosen by Trump 2.0 is not only a new attempt at the integration of finance and technology but may also become another tool in its international financial game.

However, any grand plan faces real-world constraints: internal political struggles in the U.S. and the vested interests of traditional financial institutions, the international community's vigilance against U.S. "dominance," and the high risks and regulatory challenges inherent in the crypto market all add significant uncertainty to this "crypto revolution." Regardless of the final outcome, the most important thing is to maintain rationality and actively follow regulatory and informational changes in this policy reshaping and technological transformation, enabling more informed investment decisions amidst the intertwining opportunities and risks.

Disclaimer: Readers are advised to strictly comply with local laws and regulations; this article does not represent any investment advice.