Matrixport Market Observation: The Federal Reserve Slows Rate Hikes, Global Asset Macro Pressure is Obvious

Last week, BTC experienced a significant pullback, overall under pressure and fluctuating. On January 7, after the BTC price rose to $102,724.38, it faced downward pressure. With the strong rise of the US dollar index and fluctuations in global asset liquidity, cryptocurrencies led by BTC showed notable volatility. Among them, the BTC price dipped to $89,256.69 on January 13. Currently, the BTC price has recovered to around $94,915. On January 13, the ETH price also fell below the $3,000 support level, dipping to $2,920, with the current price fluctuating around $3,180 (the above data is sourced from Binance spot market, January 14, 15:00).

The three major US stock indices showed mixed results. As of the close on January 13, the Dow Jones rose by 0.86%, the S&P 500 rose by 0.16%, and the Nasdaq fell by 0.38%. In the past 12 trading days, the spot ETF experienced capital outflows on 7 days, with $718 million flowing out in just two days, in stark contrast to nearly $2 billion inflows at the beginning of January.

Macro Interpretation

Non-farm data exceeds expectations, Fed may pause rate cut cycle

On January 11, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the December non-farm employment report, with data significantly exceeding expectations. The seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls stood at 256,000, surpassing the previous value of 212,000 and far exceeding the expected 160,000. The unemployment rate was 4.1%, down from the previous value of 4.2% and also below the expected value of 4.2%.

The data indicates that the job market continues to grow strongly. The high-interest-rate environment has not significantly suppressed economic growth, and the market generally expects the Fed to shift its policy focus to curbing inflation. Currently, CME FedWatch shows the probability of a rate cut in January has dropped to 6.4%, with investment banks lowering their rate cut expectations for 2025. Bank of America even believes that there will be no rate cuts for the entire year, and that there may be a rate hike in the first half of the year to address the pressure of rising inflation.

Against this backdrop, the market is mixed. The US dollar index has risen sharply to 109.65, approaching 110, while London gold has risen to $2,689.88 per ounce. The one-year and ten-year US Treasury yields have fallen to 4.223% and 4.762%, respectively. Major US stock indices continued their adjustment trend since December 18, with the Nasdaq, Dow, and S&P 500 falling by 2.34%, 1.86%, and 1.94%, respectively. The policies after Trump's inauguration on January 20 have become a market focus, but the market generally believes that the short-term trend of US stocks may show volatility. Although the trading environment in the first half of the year is complex, there is still long-term upward potential.

This week, the Fed will release several important economic data, and the market is watching inflation levels

The non-farm employment data far exceeded expectations, leading the market to lower its rate cut expectations. The tariff policies that may be reinstated during the Trump era have further exacerbated inflation concerns. As a result, US stocks have plummeted, and the crypto market has also faced significant pressure. The Producer Price Index (PPI), Consumer Price Index (CPI), and initial jobless claims are about to be released, and these data may bring greater volatility to the market. Investors are advised to closely monitor changes in the macro environment and respond cautiously to potential risks and opportunities.

Market Information

Standard Chartered Bank obtains Luxembourg digital asset license, accelerating the expansion of crypto custody business

On January 9, Standard Chartered Bank, a leading global financial institution, announced that it will launch cryptocurrency services in the EU, focusing on custody services for BTC and ETH. The new service primarily provides storage and protection functions for digital assets, without involving trading. Previously, the bank had launched similar crypto custody services in the UAE in 2024.

Analysts point out that Standard Chartered's move not only reflects the growing demand for digital assets among institutional investors but also demonstrates the EU's supportive attitude towards compliant crypto services. As its globalization strategy progresses, Standard Chartered is gradually consolidating its leading position in the digital asset field, setting a benchmark for financial institutions to embrace cryptocurrencies.

Bhutan's Mindful City announces the inclusion of multiple cryptocurrencies as national strategic reserves, providing a new path for the economic development of small countries

On January 8, Bhutan's Mindful City officially announced that it will include BTC, ETH, and BNB in its asset reserves, and leverage its green energy advantage from hydropower to conduct large-scale BTC mining activities. Currently, it holds over 11,000 BTC, valued at approximately $1.1 billion, ranking among the top five in global BTC reserves. Bhutan's model may inspire other energy-rich countries to use idle energy for mining and accumulate digital asset reserves.

Nigeria strengthens crypto license regulation, accelerating market compliance

The Nigerian Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) recently warned that some virtual asset service providers (VASP) face the risk of license application rejection due to non-compliance with regulatory requirements. Since launching the Accelerated Regulatory Incubation Program (ARIP) in 2024, companies including Busha Digital and Quidax Technologies have obtained operational licenses, indicating that Nigeria is accelerating the establishment of a compliance framework for the crypto market.

SEC Director General Emotimi Agama stated that the new regulations have entered the presidential approval stage and are expected to promote stricter market monitoring and education, helping Nigeria transform from one of the largest crypto markets globally to a regulatory benchmark.

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