BiFinance Research Institute: A Resentful "Bull Market" in 2024?

First of all, a bull market is usually accompanied by a broad market rise, especially with the prices of mainstream cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum soaring. This price volatility often attracts a large number of investors into the market. However, many may find that despite the overall positive market, their investment returns are far below expectations.
One reason behind this is that although the market is generally in an upward cycle, the performance of different assets varies significantly. In some cases, investors may have purchased small coins or high-risk projects that did not yield the expected returns, or even missed out on the mainstream trends of the market. This choice of investment strategy may lead to difficulties in achieving the expected gains during a bull market, resulting in feelings of disappointment and frustration that seem unrelated to the bull market.
Changes in Market Structure and Adjustments in Investor Mindset
The bull market in the cryptocurrency space in 2024 is not entirely a traditional "all-market rise." With the emergence of new fields such as decentralized finance (DeFi), NFTs, and Layer 2 solutions, investors' funds often flow into relatively smaller or emerging market areas. These areas tend to be more volatile, and due to factors such as technological development and market acceptance, their performance is often not as stable and rapid as that of mainstream cryptocurrencies.
In this situation, some investors may fail to keep up with market changes, continuing to invest in outdated or overly centralized projects, causing them to miss opportunities in more promising emerging fields. Therefore, even though they are in a bull market, investors who do not adapt to market changes still cannot feel the expected returns, leading to dissatisfaction that feels "unrelated to the bull market."
The Psychological Burden of "High Leverage" and "High Risk"
For some investors seeking high returns, they may choose to increase their investment scale through leveraged trading in hopes of achieving higher profits. However, high leverage not only amplifies potential gains but also magnifies risks. In cases of significant market price fluctuations, many investors may suffer losses or get liquidated due to improper operations or short-term market volatility.
In a bull market environment, due to the frequent and severe price fluctuations, some high-leverage investors often experience significant psychological burdens in a short period. This state of "earning is painful, losing is even more painful" means that even in a bull market, they do not feel positive returns and instead develop dissatisfaction with the market.
Lagging Investment Decisions and Emotion-Driven Choices
In a rapidly evolving market, investors often face the dilemma of choice. In the early stages of a bull market, many investors may not enter the market in time, missing the best investment opportunities. As the market gradually rises, many investors begin to "chase the rise," trying to buy at high points. However, the market does not always move in the expected direction, and some "chase the rise and kill the fall" investors suffer losses during short-term market corrections.
This emotion-driven investment decision-making often leads to poor timing choices and irrational capital flows, further exacerbating the feeling of being disconnected from the bull market. Even if the overall market is in a bull phase, some investors' mindsets and investment strategies may cause them to always "buy at the highest price" and miss out on real profit growth.
Information Asymmetry and Market Noise
In the cryptocurrency space in 2024, the speed and quality of information flow are key factors. Although the market is generally in a bull state, investors are often disturbed by a large amount of market noise and false information. Whether it is media hype, "insider information" on social platforms, or "panic sentiment," these can lead investors to make irrational decisions.
Information asymmetry prevents many investors from obtaining accurate market judgments, causing them to fall into misconceptions during a bull market. Even when the market is rising, some may choose to exit or adjust their investments due to excessive concerns about market bubbles bursting, missing subsequent profit opportunities. This decision lag caused by misinformation further intensifies the disconnect from the bull market.
Excessive Optimism in Market Sentiment and Rational Investment
Market sentiment during a bull market often exhibits extreme optimism, with investors generally full of confidence in the market, leading many to have overly high return expectations. However, excessive optimism can sometimes overlook potential market risks, resulting in over-speculation on certain projects and cryptocurrencies.
Rational investment requires balancing risk and return, avoiding blind following and emotional decision-making. Maintaining rationality, diversifying investments, and setting reasonable profit-taking and stop-loss points during a bull market will help avoid the mindset of "the bull market has nothing to do with me," ensuring stable returns during the market's upward movement.
The "discontented bull market" of 2024 reflects that even in an environment where the market is generally rising, there are still many investors who miss opportunities, lose control of their emotions, and experience decision lags. They may be disconnected from the growth of the bull market due to their failure to adapt to market changes in time, over-reliance on leverage, limitations from poor information flow, or emotional investing.
To achieve stable returns in a bull market, investors need to analyze market dynamics rationally, avoid blind following, maintain appropriate risk management, and stay alert to changes in emerging fields and technologies. After all, while a bull market presents many opportunities, whether one can seize those opportunities and achieve ideal returns ultimately depends on each investor's decision-making wisdom and market insight.