HashWhale BTC Mining Weekly Report | Miners' Trading Volume Share Has Dropped Below 5% (2025.01.06-2025.01.12)

Author: Monkey | Editor: Monkey

1. Bitcoin Market and Mining Data

From January 6 to January 12, Bitcoin's price showed certain volatility. The main changes during this period are as follows:

On January 6, Bitcoin's price fluctuated upward, ending the day with a significant increase, closing at $102,248.7, up 3.97%, indicating strong buying demand in the market with active trading volume. On January 7, it oscillated around a high of $10,100, but ended the day with a significant pullback, closing down to $96,929.8, a decrease of 5.20%, showing signs of profit-taking, although trading volume remained high. By January 8, Bitcoin's price fell for the second consecutive day, with intraday fluctuations leading to a low of $92,716.6. Trading volume continued to rise to 100.36K, indicating that selling pressure in the market had not yet dissipated. On January 9, Bitcoin's price hit a weekly low of $91,314.34. Although there was a slight recovery towards the end of the day, it still closed down 2.66%. Trading volume surged to 132.78K, indicating that the market had entered a phase of panic selling. On January 10, Bitcoin rebounded after three consecutive days of decline. It opened at $92,540.5, dipped to a low of $92,310.6, peaked at $95,760.6, and finally closed at $94,724.1, up 2.36%. Trading volume reached 125.42K, showing a recovery in buying interest, but both bulls and bears were still contesting at critical levels. From January 11 to 12, the contest at key positions continued, oscillating around $94.41K. In terms of market sentiment, despite the short-term pullback in Bitcoin's price, the overall sentiment remained optimistic. Some analysts predict that Bitcoin may break through $150,000 in the future, and even reach a historical high of $200,000.

Bitcoin Price Trend (2025/01/06-2025/01/12)

Market Dynamics and Macroeconomic Background

1. Impact of Dollar Index (DXY) Fluctuations:

• This week, the dollar index strengthened overall, mainly influenced by hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials regarding the potential continuation of high interest rates. A strong dollar typically puts pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin, attracting funds back to dollar-denominated assets.

• The dollar index significantly climbed after January 7, reinforcing market expectations of tightening liquidity and weakening investment sentiment in the cryptocurrency market.

1. Capital Flow within the Cryptocurrency Market:

• As Bitcoin's price surged and then retreated, trading volume significantly increased this week, peaking on January 9 (132.78K). This indicates a large amount of profit-taking and panic selling in the market.

• Meanwhile, the demand for stablecoin trading pairs (such as USDT) rose, showing that investors are withdrawing from crypto assets and turning to safe-haven assets.

1. Technical Pressure:

• After Bitcoin broke through the psychological barrier of $100,000 on January 6, it faced strong resistance levels. Technically, profit-taking at high levels led to a rapid price drop on January 7.

1. Changes in Market Sentiment:

• On January 6, market sentiment was optimistic, with some investors expecting Bitcoin to break historical highs.

• From January 7 to 9, the market shifted to a state of panic, especially after breaking key support at $96,000.

• From January 11 to 12, the contest at key positions continued, oscillating around $94,410.

Hash Rate Changes:

The hash rate of the Bitcoin network experienced significant fluctuations from January 6 to January 12, 2025. On January 6, the hash rate oscillated from 769.54 EH/s, rising to a peak of 912.38 EH/s, and then continued to decline to 674.19 EH/s. On the evening of January 7, the hash rate slightly rebounded to 805.67 EH/s, but began to decline again on January 8 to 723.65 EH/s, continuing to oscillate downward to 636.93 EH/s. On January 9, the hash rate slightly increased from 636.93 EH/s to 753.28 EH/s, and then broke through again, rising to a peak of 917.21 EH/s on January 10. On January 10, it oscillated down from the peak of 917.21 EH/s to 725.83 EH/s on the 11th. It slightly increased to 850.27 EH/s on the 11th, and finally oscillated down to 715.32 EH/s on the 12th. As of the time of writing, the hash rate of the Bitcoin network remained around 715 EH/s. Overall, the fluctuations in hash rate during this period were influenced by multiple factors, including miner participation, mining difficulty adjustments, and market price volatility.

At the same time, the share of publicly listed Bitcoin mining companies in the global hash rate continued to rise. According to a report by Jefferies, in December 2024, publicly listed Bitcoin mining companies in the U.S. accounted for 25.3% of the global hash rate, indicating their dominant position in the industry is gradually solidifying. Bitcoin's price rose by 15% in December, significantly outpacing the 6.5% increase in network hash rate, thereby significantly enhancing miners' profitability. Data shows that U.S. listed mining companies mined a total of 3,602 Bitcoins in December, up from 3,404 in November. Among them, Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA) had the highest output at 890 Bitcoins, followed by CleanSpark (CLSK) with 668 Bitcoins. MARA's installed hash rate reached 53.2 EH/s, the highest in the industry, while CleanSpark followed closely with 39.1 EH/s.

In summary, the fluctuations in hash rate this week and the performance of U.S. mining companies reflect the dynamic changes in Bitcoin mining, also indicating the increasing importance of large mining companies in hash rate distribution.

Bitcoin Network Hash Rate Data

Mining Revenue:

According to data from TheBlock, as of January 12, 2025, the total revenue of Bitcoin miners in January 2025 reached $451 million, indicating that the overall profitability of Bitcoin miners remained high at the beginning of the year. However, alongside the revenue growth, the share of miners' trading volume has shown a significant downward trend.

On January 10, it was reported that the trading volume share of Bitcoin miners had recently fallen below the critical level of 5%, lower than the bottom of the 2017 cycle. This indicator tracks the percentage of miner-related transactions relative to the total Bitcoin trading volume. Data shows that in the first quarter of 2024, the miners' trading volume share once exceeded 20%, reflecting a large amount of fund transfers by miners on the blockchain at that time. However, since that peak, this indicator has shown a continuous downward trend, currently falling below 5%. Although this value is lower than the bottom of the 2017 cycle, it is still higher than the historical low during the 2021 bull market.

In summary, this week, Bitcoin miners exhibited a dichotomy in terms of revenue and trading volume share; on one hand, overall revenue remained strong, while on the other hand, the decline in trading volume share indicates a decrease in miners' on-chain activity.

Bitcoin Miner Revenue Data

Trading Volume Share Data of Bitcoin Miners Over the Past Decade

Energy Costs and Mining Efficiency:

According to CloverPool data, Bitcoin mining difficulty was adjusted upward by 1.16% to 109.78 T on December 30, 2024, reaching an all-time high. As of the time of writing, on January 12, the total network hash rate was approximately 760.97 EH/s, and the next mining difficulty is expected to be adjusted down by 0.02% to 109.76 T.

From January 6 to January 12, both the mining difficulty and hash rate of the Bitcoin network remained at historical highs. The sharp fluctuations in Bitcoin's price directly impacted miners' revenue. Although international energy prices have risen, the short-term impact on miners' electricity costs has been limited. However, with the rapid growth of global hash rate and changes in energy costs, miners need to continuously monitor market dynamics and optimize operational strategies to maintain a competitive edge.

Additionally, a report from JPMorgan indicated that Bitcoin miners' daily revenue rose for the second consecutive month in December 2024, although it remains significantly below pre-halving levels. This suggests that despite high mining difficulty and hash rate, miners' profitability has improved.

In summary, miners should closely monitor Bitcoin price trends and changes in energy costs, optimize mining equipment and strategies to cope with market uncertainties, and ensure the sustainability and profitability of mining activities.

Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Data

2. Policy and Regulatory News

Former Deputy Governor of the Bank of China Wang Yongli: Rationally View Trump's New Bitcoin Policy

On January 8, it was reported that Wang Yongli, the former deputy governor of the Bank of China, published an article in the first issue of 2025 of "China Foreign Exchange" titled "Rationally View Trump's New Bitcoin Policy," in which he mentioned that Bitcoin highly mimics gold at the "currency" level, with its total amount and phased new additions entirely set by the system, which is even stricter than gold (the actual reserves of gold are not clear), and the quantity available for exchange is even more limited, fundamentally unable to grow in line with the increase in tradable wealth value, which does not meet the essential requirements of currency. Furthermore, Bitcoin is a purely chain-based digital asset, not a natural physical asset, and once trust is lost, it will vanish into nothingness, with risks far greater than gold.

With Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election, his proposed new Bitcoin policy has attracted widespread attention and discussion, which needs to be approached calmly and rationally to avoid making disruptive mistakes. The U.S. cannot guarantee that new Bitcoins will all be produced in the U.S., nor can it ensure that they will all belong to the U.S. government. The so-called national strategic reserve of Bitcoin, whether as a government (fiscal) strategic reserve or as a strategic reserve of the Federal Reserve (central bank) for the dollar, carries risks and uncertainties.

Oklahoma Senator Submits "Bitcoin Freedom Act" to Allow State Employees to Receive Salaries in Bitcoin

On January 9, it was reported that Oklahoma State Senator Dusty Deevers submitted the "Bitcoin Freedom Act" numbered SB325, which would allow employees in Oklahoma to choose to receive their salaries in Bitcoin and allow vendors to accept Bitcoin payments. The SB325 Act ensures that participation is completely voluntary, respects free market principles, and grants employees, employers, and businesses the right to choose the payment methods that best suit them. The SB325 Act is eligible for review in the 60th legislative session starting on February 3.

3. Mining News

Bitcoin ETF Absorbs Nearly Three Times the BTC Output of Miners in December

On January 7, it was reported that according to average data from Apollo and BiTBO, in December, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs absorbed as much as 51,500 Bitcoins, while miners produced nearly 14,000 Bitcoins that month, meaning the purchasing volume of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs was almost three times that of miners' output.

Accumulated Inflow of Bitcoin into U.S. Spot ETFs

Data: The Speed at Which ETF Issuers Purchase Bitcoin Has Reached 20 Times the Mining Output Speed

On January 8, it was reported that analyst Shaun Edmondson disclosed that Bitcoin ETF issuers purchased over 9,000 BTC on Friday, January 3, and then bought over 9,600 BTC on the following Monday. Since the first approval of Bitcoin ETFs, all 12 issuers have become major holders in the industry, with the amount of BTC they purchased in October equivalent to five times the global mining output, and this number has now exceeded 20 times, suggesting that bearish market signals will only lead to greater purchasing volumes.

In 2024, Several Publicly Listed Bitcoin Mining Companies Increase BTC Holdings and Expand into AI Business for Diversification

On January 8, it was reported that according to a report released by NiceHash and Digital Mining Solutions on January 7, publicly listed Bitcoin mining companies have followed MicroStrategy's lead and increased their Bitcoin treasury holdings.

The report noted: "In 2024, Bitcoin mining companies have undergone significant changes, with many choosing to retain more of their mined Bitcoin or not sell at all."

Mining companies may have various reasons for not selling Bitcoin, including expectations of further appreciation in BTC prices or strengthening their balance sheets, as well as hedging against currency devaluation.

The report mentioned that Marathon Holdings, Riot Platforms, and Hut 8 used borrowed funds to increase their Bitcoin holdings, further expanding their treasury strategies. Among the 16 largest Bitcoin-holding companies, four are mining companies.

The report stated that in addition to core mining operations, by 2024, some mining companies "further diversified into high-performance computing and artificial intelligence sectors, generating predictable revenue streams to buffer against mining volatility."

4. Bitcoin News

Bitcoin Holdings of U.S. ETFs Surge 81% in 2024, Reaching 1.125 Million BTC

On January 6, it was reported by Bitcoin News that in 2024, the Bitcoin holdings of U.S. ETFs surged 81%, reaching 1,125,335 BTC.

Data on Bitcoin Holdings of U.S. ETFs

Former Barclays Executive: Bitcoin May Have Completed "Correction Wave," Could Rise to $125,000 in Q1

On January 6, it was reported that John Glover, former managing director of Barclays Investment Bank, stated that according to technical analysis tools such as Elliott Wave Theory, Bitcoin is expected to break through $125,000 in the first quarter of 2025. He noted that earlier this week, Bitcoin fell below $92,000, but it may have completed the correction wave, and if Bitcoin breaks through $125,000, it may experience another pullback before heading towards the cycle peak around $160,000. It is understood that Elliott Wave Theory posits that asset prices consist of five waves in the direction of the main trend and three corrective waves against the trend in each cycle, with each corrective wave followed by a wave in the direction of the main trend.

Nasdaq Applies to Increase BlackRock's Bitcoin Spot ETF Position Limit from 25,000 to 250,000 Shares

On January 7, it was reported that Nasdaq has submitted an application to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to increase the position limit of BlackRock's Bitcoin spot ETF (IBIT) from 25,000 shares to 250,000 shares. It is important to note that this application still requires SEC approval to take effect. The position limit refers to the maximum number of shares that a single investor or institution can hold in the ETF.

The head of Bitwise Alpha Strategies stated: "Given the ETF's increasing trading volume, it would be reasonable to raise the position limit to at least 400,000 shares. Nasdaq and BlackRock's request is reasonable and supported by facts."

Santiment and Bitwise Analysis: Dynamic Divergence in Bitcoin and U.S. Stock Correlation May Signal Bullish Trends

On January 8, it was reported that cryptocurrency market research firm Santiment and Bitwise's European research head Andre Dragosch both pointed out the recent dynamic changes in the correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. stocks (S&P 500 index).

Santiment posted on platform X that since Trump's election as the 47th President of the United States, the correlation between cryptocurrencies and stocks has remained high. However, recently, Bitcoin has shown a trend of deviating from the conventional volatility trajectory compared to the S&P 500 index, which is seen as a potential bullish signal. Historically, periods of low correlation between cryptocurrencies and the stock market often precede significant bull markets. If Bitcoin can continue to grow strongly independent of the S&P 500 in January, the likelihood of reaching new historical highs will significantly increase.

However, Andre Dragosch pointed out that the recent 20-day moving average correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 has reached 0.88, indicating that there is still a strong synchronicity between the two. He warned that although on-chain factors may provide momentum before mid-2025, a deteriorating macroeconomic situation could still pose short-term risks to Bitcoin, especially considering its high correlation with the stock market.

In summary, Bitcoin's current trend presents uncertainties in the short term, but if it can gradually detach from its close correlation with U.S. stocks, it may welcome more optimistic market expectations.

Bitcoin ($BTC) vs. S&P 500 Index (SPX) vs. Gold Price

Bernstein and KULR Both Predict Bitcoin Will Reach $200,000 in 2025
On January 6, it was reported that Bernstein analysts reiterated a Bitcoin price target of $200,000 in their ten predictions for the cryptocurrency industry in 2025, calling 2025 the beginning of the "Infinite Era," believing it to be a long-term period of evolution and widespread acceptance of cryptocurrency technology. The report noted that the stablecoin market size will exceed $500 billion, net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs will exceed $70 billion, and the integration of cryptocurrency and artificial intelligence will deepen further.

On January 8, Michael Mo, CEO of KULR Technology, a publicly listed company on the NYSE, stated that Bitcoin could reach a peak of $200,000 in the 2025 market cycle, primarily driven by the global adoption of strategic BTC reserves. Additionally, KULR purchased over $21 million worth of Bitcoin at an average price of $97,391 on January 6.

The views of Bernstein and KULR reflect the market's high optimism regarding Bitcoin's medium- to long-term potential.

This Week's Global Corporate and National Bitcoin Holdings Dynamics Are as Follows:

Canadian listed company Kontrol Technologies holds 25 BTC.

Australia's Monochrome spot Bitcoin ETF (IBTC) has holdings of 267 BTC, valued at approximately $41.534 million.

Japan's Metaplanet plans to increase its Bitcoin holdings to 10,000 BTC this year, currently holding 1,761.98 BTC, valued at approximately $167 million.

CleanSpark holds 9,952 BTC, with a total value of $1.01 billion, becoming the fifth-largest corporate holder, surpassing Tesla.

MicroStrategy has increased its Bitcoin holdings for nine consecutive weeks, with a total holding value of $44.3 billion.

Bitwise data shows that the number of Bitcoins held by global enterprises has increased by 63% year-on-year, reaching 590,649 BTC.

El Salvador currently holds 6,025 Bitcoins, valued at $5.7 billion.

Thumzup Media Corporation announced the purchase of 9.783 Bitcoins, valued at approximately $1 million.

SUNation Energy announced that its board has approved the inclusion of Bitcoin in the company's asset management plan. According to the plan, SUNation will use 30% of its excess cash to purchase Bitcoin.

BlackRock's Bitcoin Trust Fund ($IBIT) purchased 5,830 Bitcoins on January 7, valued at approximately $596.1 million.

The Bitcoin Reserve Share of U.S. Entities Reaches an All-Time High, 65% Higher than Non-U.S. Entities

On January 9, it was reported that Cryptoquant CEO Ki Young Ju stated on social media that the Bitcoin reserve share of U.S. entities has reached an all-time high, currently 65% higher than that of non-U.S. entities.

BTC Reserve Rate Data

Timothy Peterson: Predicts Bitcoin Will Reach $1.5 Million by 2035

On January 10, it was reported that Timothy Peterson, founder of CaneIsland Alternative Advisors, stated that based on network growth and Metcalfe's Law, he predicts Bitcoin will reach $1.5 million by 2035. Peterson's previous accurate predictions include the rebound in 2024 and the $10,000 Bitcoin price bottom.

Oklahoma Senator: Bitcoin Has Become Mainstream in the Economy

On January 10, it was reported that Oklahoma Senator Dusty Deevers stated that Bitcoin has become mainstream in the economy and is undoubtedly an important component of the financial future.

New Hampshire Proposes Bill to Establish "Strategic Bitcoin Reserves"

On January 11, it was reported that Dennis Porter, co-founder and CEO of the Satoshi Action Fund (SAF), posted on platform X that New Hampshire State Representative Keith Ammon submitted a bill proposing the establishment of "strategic reserves," allowing the state treasury to invest in precious metals (such as gold, silver, platinum) as well as digital assets (including Bitcoin).

The bill will introduce new regulations to clarify the definitions of "qualified custodians" and "secure custody solutions" to ensure the safe custody of digital assets and operate through regulated trading products.

Whole Foods and Several U.S. Food and Beverage Companies Accelerate Bitcoin Payment and Reserve Layout

On January 12, it was reported that Israeli alternative protein company Steakholder Foods has approved the purchase of up to $1 million in Bitcoin, with CEO Arik Kaufman expressing optimism about the development prospects of cryptocurrency as an asset class. Additionally, Santa Fe Meat Company Beck & Bulow supports Bitcoin payments both online and offline, planning to convert 20% of its assets into Bitcoin and hold all Bitcoin income while supporting employees' 401(k) plans to invest in BTC.

Chipotle, Whole Foods, and Starbucks have supported Bitcoin payments through third-party payment platforms like Flexa. Shareholders of Amazon, the parent company of Whole Foods, have proposed allocating at least 5% of assets to Bitcoin, which will be reviewed at the 2025 annual shareholder meeting.