Has it reached the bottom? Institutions and traders analyze the subsequent market trends

Author: 1912212.eth, Foresight News

On January 7, Zhao Changpeng tweeted that "a $100,000 Bitcoin is too boring." If $100,000 seems a bit boring, what about a $91,200 Bitcoin? Perhaps all that remains is uncertainty and unease. The market once believed that the upcoming trend would continue to rise, but the outcome was completely opposite: Bitcoin has been continuously declining since January 7, eventually dipping to around $91,200.

Today, the cryptocurrency fear and greed index dropped to 50, down from 69 yesterday (with a weekly average of 74), as market sentiment plummeted to levels not seen since October of last year. The crypto market did not have the dream start to the year that investors expected; instead, it has been volatile. Since December of last year, the price movements have been like a roller coaster, leaving many market participants, especially altcoin holders, exhausted amid the ups and downs.

Data does not lie. According to Coinglass data, as Bitcoin continues to decline, the current funding rates on mainstream CEX and DEX indicate that the market is generally bearish. With both market sentiment and prices languishing, how do the experts view the future market trends?

Real Vision Co-founder: The market is entering the "Banana Singularity" zone, and after consolidation, a season of altcoins will emerge

Raoul Pal, co-founder and CEO of Real Vision, stated that the cryptocurrency market is entering the "Banana Singularity" zone, or a period where "everything is going up." (The term "Banana Zone" was coined by Raoul Pal to describe a period of significant price increases.)

Raoul Pal indicated that the market is still in the Banana Zone, with the first phase of this bull market being the breakout in November of last year. The next phase will be a consolidation period similar to the 2016/2017 cycle, which will not last long. The next stage of the "Banana Zone" is the "Banana Singularity," a season where "everything will go up, followed by a larger consolidation."

CryptoQuant CEO: The altcoin market is in a zero-sum PvP game, with only a few projects able to survive

Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, stated on his social media platform, "The altcoin market is currently in a zero-sum PvP (player versus player) game. Although Bitcoin's market cap has doubled, the total market cap of altcoins is still below previous historical highs, merely rotating within the market without new capital inflow. Only a few altcoins with strong use cases and narratives will be able to survive."

Trader Eugene: BTC, ETH, and SOL face critical support levels being breached, and panic is starting to emerge in the market

Trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio posted on social media, "This is when most people start to panic, for the following reasons:

• BTC, ETH, and SOL are retesting the range lows from December 5, and the market is beginning to accept the fact that these support levels may not hold.

• The next support level for BTC is at $85,000, which is very far away.

• The psychological reliance on the 'January bull market' is starting to weaken, as most people realize that their unsold assets have gone through a complete cycle of ups and downs, beginning to incur losses, and finding that they no longer like the coins they hold as much during significant market declines."

Glassnode: If Bitcoin falls below $88,000, it may lead to further declines

Glassnode stated, "The cost basis for short-term holders ($88,000) remains a key level for assessing Bitcoin's price momentum. Using the URPD indicator, we can see that trading volume below the short-term holder cost basis is low, indicating that if this level is breached, it may lead to further downward trends."

Trader TraderS: Bitcoin will consolidate in the short term, and Friday's non-farm payroll data needs to be closely monitored

Twitter KOL TraderS tweeted that for the short-term market, $92,750 may be the short-term low (or second low). Recently, Bitcoin has been fluctuating between $92,000 and $102,000, and if we widen the upper and lower limits a bit, it would be between $88,000 and $108,000. Before Trump's inauguration on January 20, there may still be time and sentiment for a return above $100,000, even touching previous highs. If that happens, it would clear most positions to observe Trump's actual performance after taking office. If there are no opportunities before January 20, we may have to wait for the traditional small spring around the Spring Festival in mid-March. The non-farm payroll data on Friday night may be the most important reference data to set the tone for the market.

Crypto KOL Ansem: The market will enter a sideways consolidation, but there are still opportunities on-chain

Crypto KOL Ansem pointed out that the current fundamental view is that from August to December is the altcoin season, during which October to December experienced the first round of the AI token mini-bubble. He expects the market to enter a prolonged period of sideways consolidation until investors generally believe the bull market is over. During this time, some on-chain projects will perform well, and many new projects will be worth participating in.

Trader Kruge: The market is overly pessimistic, the Fed's rate-cutting cycle has not ended, and new historical highs are still expected

Well-known trader Kruge wrote a lengthy post on Twitter discussing his views on the market, stating: People are too bearish right now. I think it's a matter of time frame. Most crypto natives are exhausted, and many have even been traumatized. Normally, this kind of sentiment could actually form a top. But this time, traditional finance (Tradfi) is buying Bitcoin (not just Saylor acting alone). They are indifferent to the trauma of crypto natives.

So ask yourself: Has the stock market topped? That is the key. ETFs should ensure that the correlation remains. To answer this question, you also need to ask yourself another question: Has the Fed's rate-cutting cycle ended? I don't think so. We just heard the Fed announce a temporary pause in rate hikes, which has basically been digested by the market. It's temporary, not permanent. Look at what the Fed officials are saying; they still advocate for further rate cuts. The market's expectations for rate cuts in 2025 are priced in for almost just one cut. Three months ago, that number was seven times.

Kruge also stated: Soon the market narrative will shift again, no longer focusing on the hawkish Fed and the sell-off of long-term rates. Trump is also about to take the stage. Meanwhile, given the pessimistic economic data and chart performance we just received, I wouldn't be surprised if the BTC price enters the $80,000 range. But to me, this is just temporary noise that requires short-term risk management. I do believe that traders will be more actively selling when BTC prices exceed $100,000, thereby slowing the pace of the rise, especially before the price reaches $105,000. I also believe that macro factors are becoming important again. I don't expect there to be a "simple pattern" in the future. The easy money days are over. But I still expect Bitcoin to reach new highs. We have a long year ahead.