HashWhale BTC Mining Weekly Report (2024.12.30-2025.01.05)
Bitcoin mining difficulty increased by 1.16% to 109.78 T; Bitcoin hash rate reached 1,000 EH/s; Bitcoin miner revenue in December has reached $1.44 billion.Author: Monkey | Editor: Monkey
1. Bitcoin Market and Mining Data
From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, Bitcoin's price showed certain volatility. The main changes during this period are as follows:
On December 30, 2024, Bitcoin surged above $94,900 but failed to maintain the upward momentum, retreating to around $92,700 by the end of the day, with market sentiment leaning bearish and short positions dominating. From December 31, 2024, to January 1, 2025, Bitcoin rebounded to above $96,000 after touching the support near $92,000 at year-end. Despite the selling pressure above, it still closed slightly higher, indicating a return of bullish strength. On the first day of the new year, it continued to oscillate upward, with prices around $94,000, showing an overall upward trend. On January 3, the daily increase significantly expanded, with prices breaking through the key resistance of $95,000 and oscillating up to above $97,000, indicating active market funds and further strengthening of the trend. On January 4, there was high-level oscillation, and the market experienced profit-taking sentiment, potentially entering a consolidation phase in the short term, but overall remained above $96,000, showing strong support. On January 5, Bitcoin's price continued to oscillate at high levels, with cautious market sentiment and investors showing strong wait-and-see attitudes, maintaining prices between $97,000 and $98,000.
Bitcoin Price Trend (2024/12/30-2025/01/05)
Market Dynamics:
With year-end capital reallocation and the initiation of new year investment strategies, Bitcoin, as digital gold, attracted capital inflows.
Institutional investors may have increased their positions, driving prices to rise rapidly.
Influencing Factors Analysis:
- Macroeconomic Policy:
Federal Reserve Interest Rate Policy: In 2024, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates multiple times, adjusting the rate to a range of 4.25%-4.5%. Although inflation levels have retreated from peak levels, they still exceed the 2% target. According to the latest forecast, the Federal Reserve may cut rates twice in 2025, totaling 50 basis points. High interest rates may reduce market interest in high-risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
- Political Factors:
Trump Administration's Cryptocurrency Policy: President-elect Donald Trump has a supportive stance on cryptocurrencies, planning to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve and nominate officials who support cryptocurrencies. These policies may have a positive impact on Bitcoin prices.
- Market Sentiment:
Investor Sentiment: The Fear and Greed Index stands at 61, indicating market sentiment leans towards greed, with investors holding an optimistic view on Bitcoin.
- Technical Factors:
Technical Indicators: Bitcoin's price has broken through the upper limit of a bullish channel, indicating an upward trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) also shows a buy signal.
Hash Rate Changes:
The Bitcoin network's hash rate experienced significant fluctuations from December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025. Starting from December 30, 2024, the hash rate fell from 957.78 EH/s to 708.43 EH/s. However, from December 31 to January 1, the network hash rate quickly rebounded to 955.33 EH/s, then declined again to around 655.44 EH/s, showing an oscillating upward trend. Starting January 2, the hash rate continued to climb to 990.64 EH/s, reaching a historical high of 1,000 EH/s in the early hours of January 3, before dropping to 759.66 EH/s. On January 4, the hash rate stabilized around 750 EH/s. On January 5, it slightly increased and stabilized around 825 EH/s. As of the time of writing, the hash rate is 838.92 EH/s.
This historic growth is noteworthy— the new high of 1,000 EH/s reached on January 3 is nearly double the network hash rate from 12 months ago. This significant change reflects advancements in global mining technology and the intensifying competition in the industry.
Bitcoin Network Hash Rate Data
Bitcoin Network Hash Rate Distribution and Concentration:
It is particularly noteworthy that the United States dominates the Bitcoin network hash rate, contributing over 40% of global computing power resources. According to TheMinerMag, the two major mining pools in the U.S., Foundry USA and MARA Pool, account for over 38.5% of all mined blocks. Foundry USA's hash rate has grown from 157 EH/s at the beginning of 2024 to about 280 EH/s in December, making it the largest single mining pool globally by hash rate, controlling approximately 36.5% of the total hash rate of the Bitcoin network.
This regional concentration of computing power raises new considerations for mining efficiency and regulation, while also intensifying attention on the expansion potential of other regional markets.
Mining Revenue:
Data from TheBlock shows that Bitcoin miners' revenue reached $1.44 billion in December, marking a new high since May of this year, surpassing November's $1.21 billion in miner revenue. Additionally, in November, $38.73 million of miner revenue came from on-chain fees, while December saw $37.69 million.
Bitcoin Miner Revenue Data
Input Data Energy Costs and Mining Efficiency:
Data from CloverPool indicates that Bitcoin mining difficulty experienced an adjustment at block height 876,960 (December 30, 2024, 5:55:37), with mining difficulty increasing by 1.16% to 109.78 T, setting a new historical high. As of the time of writing, the average network hash rate is 804.04 EH/s. The next mining difficulty is expected to increase by 1.29% to 111.20 T, with less than 8 days until the next adjustment.
From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, both Bitcoin network mining difficulty and hash rate remained at historical highs. Despite improvements in mining machine efficiency, the rapid growth of global hash rate and changes in energy costs pose new challenges to mining efficiency and profitability. Miners need to continuously monitor market dynamics and optimize operational strategies to maintain a competitive edge.
Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Data
2. Policy and Regulatory News
People's Bank of China Releases Financial Stability Report, Mentioning Hong Kong Cryptocurrency Regulation
On December 30, the People's Bank of China released the "China Financial Stability Report (2024)," which includes mentions of global cryptocurrency regulatory dynamics, with a focus on Hong Kong's compliance progress in cryptocurrency. Given the potential spillover risks of crypto assets on financial system stability, regulatory authorities worldwide are intensifying their oversight of crypto assets. Hong Kong is actively exploring a licensing regime for crypto assets, categorizing virtual assets into two types for regulation: securitized financial assets and non-securitized financial assets. Operators of virtual asset trading platforms are subject to a unique "dual licensing" system, applicable to the "Securities and Futures Ordinance" and the "Anti-Money Laundering Ordinance." Institutions engaged in virtual asset businesses must apply for registration licenses from relevant regulatory authorities to operate. Additionally, Hong Kong requires large financial institutions such as HSBC and Standard Chartered to include cryptocurrency exchanges in their routine client supervision.
Japan's Financial Services Agency Considers Changing Cryptocurrency Classification to Recognize as Publicly Investable Financial Assets
On December 30, news emerged that Japan's Financial Services Agency announced plans to start classifying cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin as "financial assets," which may lead to changes in cryptocurrency classification. Official documents show that the agency has expressed its position in the tax reform requests for the fiscal year 2025, hoping to begin recognizing crypto assets as "financial assets that the general public can invest in."
Currently, Japanese law classifies crypto assets as "payment instruments" under the Payment Services Act. A shift towards a more investment-focused definition would represent a form of legitimization for cryptocurrencies, but this change seems contingent on the stability of the cryptocurrency industry. Although the document does not call for cryptocurrency tax reform, CoinPost reported that it indicates Japan's controversial crypto tax rules "may be" subject to "review."
South Korea's Financial Services Commission Delays Decision on Allowing Businesses to Open Cryptocurrency Accounts
On December 30, the South Korean Financial Services Commission announced that the decision on whether to allow businesses to open cryptocurrency accounts will be postponed until 2025. Following the first virtual asset committee meeting, the second meeting scheduled for January of the new year is expected to revisit the discussion on whether to permit the establishment of virtual asset accounts for businesses in Korean won.
Previously, the Financial Services Commission was considering allowing non-profit enterprises such as central government departments, local governments, public institutions, and universities to issue real-name accounts in the first phase, but this issue has not been finalized. Notably, the recent impeachment situation may lead the government to delay further deliberation on the virtual asset committee's discussion results.
3. Mining News
Russia Bans Cryptocurrency Mining in Ten Regions Starting Today
On January 1, news reported that Russia has fully banned cryptocurrency mining in ten regions, with three other regions implementing partial bans. The government decree was passed on December 23, stipulating a complete ban on mining from January 2025 to March 2031. In the other three regions, mining will be partially restricted during each heating season (from November 15 to March 15 of the following year, excluding the first year of the ban starting January 1, 2025).
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated at the end of December that the number of regions banning cryptocurrency mining could increase if requests are received from governors. Authorities in the Republic of Khakassia have already requested the Ministry of Energy to restrict mining activities in the region.
HC Wainwright: Total Market Value of Bitcoin Mining Companies May Exceed $100 Billion by 2025
On January 3, U.S. investment bank HC Wainwright published an article this week, predicting that by the end of 2025, the price of Bitcoin will reach $225,000, which would mean a market value of $4.5 trillion for Bitcoin, approximately 25% of the market value of gold. HC Wainwright also expects the total market value of Bitcoin mining companies to exceed $100 billion.
Total BTC Transferred to Exchanges and Miner Outflows Have Significantly Decreased Since Last November
On January 5, news reported that the inflow of BTC to exchanges (total BTC transferred to exchanges) and miner outflows (the amount of BTC sent to exchanges by miners) have significantly decreased since November 2024, indicating reduced selling pressure. According to CryptoQuant data, after experiencing a peak of exchange inflow activity for about two months, the inflow of BTC to exchanges peaked at 98,748 BTC on November 25, 2024. In December 2024, the inflow to exchanges decreased, with the total number of Bitcoin sent to exchanges ranging between 11,000 and 79,000 per day. The decrease in exchange inflows coincided with a reduction in miner outflows, indicating a decrease in selling pressure from Bitcoin miners, who often sell their Bitcoin holdings to cover operational costs.
Miner Outflow Data from July 2022 to January 2025
4. Bitcoin News
Total On-chain Holdings of U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETF Exceeds $100 Billion
On December 30, news reported that, according to Dune data, the total on-chain holdings of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF have surpassed 1.12 million BTC, currently around 1.129 million BTC, accounting for 5.70% of the current BTC supply, with the on-chain holdings valued at approximately $10.68 billion.
Number of Bitcoin ATMs in Australia Continues to Grow for 29 Consecutive Months
On December 30, Coin ATM Radar data showed that the number of Bitcoin ATMs in Australia has increased for 29 consecutive months. Currently, Australia has 1,359 ATMs, accounting for 3.5% of the total number of Bitcoin ATMs worldwide. Additionally, as of December 29, the U.S. has a total of 31,516 Bitcoin ATMs, meaning that the U.S. holds 81.3% of all Bitcoin ATMs globally. Canada ranks second with 3,027 Bitcoin ATMs, accounting for about 7.8% of the entire cryptocurrency ATM market.
Data on Installed or Removed Crypto ATMs in Australia
Clean Energy Usage Rate in Bitcoin Mining Exceeds 50%, Market Awaits Musk to Fulfill Tesla's Commitment to Resume Accepting Bitcoin Payments
On December 30, news from Watcher.Guru reported that the clean energy usage rate in the Bitcoin network has now exceeded 50%.
Elon Musk stated in June 2021 that Tesla would resume accepting Bitcoin payments once the clean energy usage rate in Bitcoin mining exceeded 50%.
Global Bitcoin Holding Dynamics: BlackRock Holds Over 550,000 BTC, El Salvador Increases Holdings by 53 BTC
El Salvador: Increased holdings by 53 BTC in the past 30 days, currently holding over 6,002.77 BTC, with a Bitcoin market value of approximately $556 million.
Australia's Monochrome: The spot Bitcoin ETF (IBTC) held 266 BTC as of December 30, with assets under management (AUM) of approximately $39.95 million.
Yuxing Technology (Hong Kong Stock): Recently sold approximately 6.3 million USDT and purchased 78.2 BTC.
BlackRock: As of December 31, 2024, Bitcoin holdings totaled 551,917.901 BTC, with a total market value of approximately $51.731 billion.
CNBC: Several Institutions Optimistic About Bitcoin's 2025 Performance, Highest Expectation at $250,000
On December 31, news reported that several industry observers interviewed by CNBC predicted Bitcoin's price in 2025, with the highest expectation being an increase to $250,000. James Butterfill, research director at CoinShares, stated that Bitcoin's price could range from $80,000 to $150,000 in 2025. Matrixport indicated that Bitcoin could reach $160,000 by 2025. Alex Thorn, research director at Galaxy Digital, expects Bitcoin to break $150,000 in the first half of this year and reach $185,000 in the fourth quarter.
The research director at Standard Chartered Bank predicts Bitcoin will reach $200,000 by the end of 2025. Carol Alexander, a finance professor at Sussex University, believes Bitcoin's price could reach $200,000 next year. Youwei Yang, chief economist at Bit Mining, predicts Bitcoin's price will reach between $180,000 and $190,000 in 2025. Sid Powell, CEO and co-founder of Maple Finance, predicts Bitcoin's price will reach between $180,000 and $200,000 by the end of 2025. Elitsa Taskova, chief product officer at Nexo, believes Bitcoin will reach $250,000 within a year.
Industry Experts and Institutions Generally Expect Bitcoin's Price to Reach $180,000 to $200,000 in 2025
On January 1, news reported that, according to aggregated prediction data from Trader T, industry experts and institutions generally expect Bitcoin's price to reach $180,000 to $200,000 in 2025.
Historically, Bitcoin Has Shown Significant Performance in the First Quarter Following Halving
On January 2, news from Coinglass indicated that historically, Bitcoin has shown significant performance in the first quarter following halving, with specific data being: Q1 2013: 539.96%; Q1 2017: 11.89%; Q1 2021: 103.17%.
Investment Bank H.C. Wainwright Raises Bitcoin's Target Price This Year from $140,000 to $225,000
On January 3, news reported that investment bank H.C. Wainwright raised Bitcoin's target price this year from $140,000 to $225,000, stating that the price increase may be driven by regulatory clarity and institutional adoption.
MicroStrategy Plans to Raise $2 Billion in the First Quarter Through Preferred Stock Issuance to Acquire More BTC
On January 4, news reported that MicroStrategy announced plans to raise up to $2 billion through the issuance of preferred stock, part of its "21/21 Plan," which aims to raise $42 billion over three years (with $21 billion each from equity and fixed income).
The purpose of this issuance is to allow MicroStrategy to continue strengthening its balance sheet and acquire more Bitcoin. This issuance is expected to take place in the first quarter of 2025.
The announcement stated that the decision to proceed with and complete the issuance is at MicroStrategy's discretion and subject to market and other conditions, allowing MicroStrategy to choose not to proceed or complete the issuance.
This Week, Bitcoin Spot ETF Sees a Net Inflow of $255.3 Million, Increasing Holdings by 2,421.94 BTC
On January 5, news reported that Lin Chen, head of Deribit Asia Pacific business, posted on X, stating: "This week, the BTC spot ETF overall showed a slight net inflow. Despite a market closure on Wednesday and a significant net outflow on Thursday, the inflows on the remaining days compensated for this gap, resulting in a total net inflow of $255.3 million, increasing holdings by 2,421.94 BTC.
Among them, on Thursday, BlackRock's IBIT set a new record for the largest single-day reduction of 3,516.57 BTC, while on Friday, market sentiment improved, resulting in an inflow of 2,601.9 BTC, with Fidelity increasing holdings by 3,684.64 BTC that day. Currently, BTC prices have rebounded, maintaining a wide oscillation around $98,000."
