From DeSci to AI Agents: Interpretation of Potential Tracks

In the past few bull markets, we could clearly identify the tracks that ignited and drove the development of the bull market.

For example, 2017 was about ICOs, and 2020~2021 was about DeFi and NFTs.

For this round of market, I have not been able to see such a track.

The Bitcoin ecosystem once gave me a bit of hope, but its sluggish development later made me less optimistic. Besides that, there hasn't been any track that has reignited that hope for me.

However, I am still very curious: if Ethereum breaks through its previous high, will there be a new track that can once again ignite the development of this bull market like before?

If there is no such track, relying solely on external funds and favorable (U.S.) policies to stimulate the bull market would have very limited significance.

Today I saw a piece of news that an important decentralized exchange in the BNB ecosystem, Pancake, has launched its own meme coin platform. Coupled with the fact that teams on Base and Ethereum have also joined the meme coin platform track, I feel that this momentum will likely spread to various public chains and even second-layer expansions.

Now, supporting meme coins is not only a means to activate the ecosystem but has also become an important way for project teams to attract popularity, traffic, and funds, even increasing revenue.

This spreading momentum has already given the meme coin track a bit of flavor.

So, could the meme coin track potentially become a leading track for the bull market?

To become a track with such energy, I believe it must at least meet the following conditions:

• It must have a strong ecological demonstration effect, to the extent that after reaching a certain stage, other ecosystems eagerly join the fray.

• It must have benchmark projects, such that every project team attempting to establish this ecosystem will say, "We want to become the XXX coin of the XXX ecosystem."

• Of course, it must also have a strong wealth effect, and this wealth effect cannot be just one or two isolated cases, but rather a batch of projects that have allowed participants to earn considerable returns, forming a collective effect. Additionally, this wealth effect should be sustainable for a period of time; it cannot be the case that buying yesterday leads to profits today, only for it to drop to zero tomorrow.

• Finally, it is likely to be a new track. Because new tracks have not been tried before, even a slightly new gameplay can trigger infinite imagination. In contrast, it is very difficult for old tracks to innovate unless there is a disruptive innovation.

ICOs, DeFi, and NFTs almost all meet the above conditions without exception.

If we use these conditions to evaluate several potential tracks in the current crypto ecosystem, I feel that meme coins are somewhat similar, but I am not very sure. Their biggest problem is whether the wealth effect they create can be sustained.

Currently, many meme coins rely on emotions that cannot last. Once that emotion passes, they will have no chance of recovery.

Additionally, there are two new tracks that I think also have some hope: one is DeSci, and the other is AI agents.

For the DeSci track, the main application scenario is funding scientific research through crowdfunding crypto assets. I think this approach is worth long-term observation and is very meaningful.

This track has recently shown clear leading projects and demonstration effects. Under the leadership of leading projects, many DeSci project tokens have also seen significant increases, benefiting most participants who had early involvement in this track.

However, this track has potential problems similar to meme coins, which is the uncertainty of whether their wealth effect can at least last for a while.

From the current DeSci funded projects, almost all are in biotechnology. Such research does not yield noticeable results on a daily or monthly basis, but rather on a quarterly or yearly basis. If the research progress is too slow and cannot meet people's expectations for the project, then the token's increase may be difficult to sustain for a while.

As for the AI agent track, I feel hopeful.

It is a new track, and the leading projects have already taken shape, with many popular project tokens also seeing significant increases.

More importantly, I believe the technological reserves of this track should be sufficient now, potentially supporting developers to create a truly useful AI agent in the coming months.

Of course, it also has problems: even though the technology is ready, can the AI agents we envision meet our expectations or solve the problems we hope they will solve?

If this problem can be solved, and a truly useful AI agent that addresses our issues is developed through crowdfunding, it would not only prove that artificial intelligence can play an important role in the crypto ecosystem but also demonstrate that crypto technology can greatly fund the development of artificial intelligence. The imagination of this momentum would be immeasurable.

All of the above are my speculations, and some may even sound a bit fanciful to me. But I can't help but indulge in such speculations because I always hope that in every bull market, we can not only reap wealth but also experience the excitement and achievements brought by technological progress.