The Shanzhai season bull market has started, and Bankless is bullish on these 10 tokens for the next three months

Source: Bankless

Compiled by: Golem, Odaily Planet Daily

"I was wrong, I didn't expect the altcoin season to arrive at the end of November."

At the beginning of November, while Bitcoin continued to rise and altcoins performed poorly, the market was still worried that this bull market would not include altcoin rallies. Most institutions and analysts also expressed negative views (related reading: Bitcoin hits a new high, can altcoins keep up?). However, by the end of November, TradingView data showed that the total market capitalization of altcoins had nearly doubled since November, Bitcoin's market share dropped to 51.4%, and analysts indicated that BTC's market share was about to break through a multi-year support level, significantly affecting market sentiment, indicating that the altcoin season had arrived.

Being in the altcoin season also brings worries about which tokens to buy. Ryan Sean Adams, co-founder of Bankless, suggested that ETH would rise to $4,000 within the next 24 hours. This may just be his personal FOMO statement, but the dedicated analyst team at Bankless had previously been predicting the price trends of several altcoins, and since the start of the altcoin season in November, they have been bullish on the price trends of 10 altcoins for the next three months.

This article will summarize the specific predictions and reasons from the Bankless analyst team for the 10 bullish altcoins, and provide a summary of the win rates for their token predictions due by the end of November to early December for readers' reference.

Prediction Win Rate from Late November to Early December: 40%

Excluding neutral tokens, there are a total of 10 tokens predicted by the Bankless analyst team that are set to expire from late November to early December, with the following results:

• Predicted bullish but declined: Euler (EUL) down 27%;
• Predicted bearish but rose: Ethervista (VISTA) up 66%, UMA Protocol (UMA) up 78%; Filecoin (FIL) up 55%, 1inch (1INCH) up 80.75%, Blur (BLUR) up 99.4%;
• Predicted bearish and actual decline consistent: Sanctum (CLOUD) up 99.69%, GMX (GMX) down 18.04%, Kamino (KMNO) up 206.37%, Canto (CANTO) down 55%.

Among them, the most significant discrepancies were seen in Instadapp (INST), 1inch (1INCH), and Blur (BLUR), with Kamino (KMNO) showing a high predicted return, increasing by 206.37%. However, the overall win rate for the tokens predicted to expire from late November to early December is only 40%.

Bullish Tokens Overview

Aave (AAVE)

• Sector: DeFi
• Reason: Net deposits and active loans continue to grow, valuation indicators are favorable
• Prediction Period: December 2, 2024, to March 2, 2025
• Price at Prediction: $238.91
• Price Performance to Date: Up 2.88%

On July 31, the Bankless analyst team was bullish on AAVE's price because Marc Zeller proposed a "temperature check" for upgrading the security module on July 25, and the AAVE token plays a key role in the ecosystem.

In the past 30 days, the total active loans of AAVE have reached $12.51 billion, a 46% increase, and net deposits have risen to $31.37 billion, a year-on-year increase of 49%. The increased demand for leverage has driven the expansion of loans and higher borrowing rates. For example, the current borrowing rate for USDT on Aave is 37%, leading to a 63% surge in Aave's revenue.

However, the price of the AAVE token has only increased by about 16%, which does not align with the growth rate of protocol revenue, indicating that the market may not have fully reflected Aave's recent performance. Therefore, the Bankless analyst team remains bullish on AAVE.

Instadapp (INST)

• Sector: DeFi
• Reason: Continuous increase in trading volume, innovative protocol mechanisms
• Prediction Period: November 26, 2024, to February 26, 2025
• Price at Prediction: $5.47
• Price Performance to Date: Up 36.01%

On July 16, the Bankless analyst team was bullish on INST's price because Fluid (a hybrid of money market and DEX) serves as a unified liquidity layer for Instadapp, expected to drive adoption and revenue growth. Since the launch of DEX on November 1, Fluid's total trading volume has exceeded $1 billion. It currently ranks fifth in 24-hour trading volume on Ethereum, behind well-known projects like Uniswap, Curve, Pendle, and Balancer.

The rapid success of Fluid can be attributed to its innovative design. Users can earn from both borrowers and transaction fees. Additionally, debt positions generate transaction fees that offset borrowing costs, a unique feature that enhances capital efficiency.

Thus, the Bankless analyst team continues to be bullish on its subsequent price performance, believing that the growing popularity of Fluid and its smart collateral and smart debt mechanisms are key drivers for increasing trading volume and efficiency in the DeFi space.

anoncast (ANON)

• Sector: SocialFi
• Reason: Publicly recognized by Vitalik, potential for viral spread
• Prediction Period: November 21, 2024, to February 21, 2025
• Price at Prediction: $0.04
• Price Performance to Date: Down 37.29%

On the evening of November 20, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin purchased Base tokens for the first time through the "vitalik.eth" address, exchanging 0.082 ETH ($253) for 30.303k ANON via the DeFi aggregator ParaSwap.

ANON is the utility token for "anoncast," a social experiment based on zero-knowledge proofs. Token holders with at least 15,000 ANON can post anonymously through the protocol's associated Farcaster accounts, while holders with at least 1 million ANON can promote or delete existing posts on X/Twitter.

Although many experienced Base participants may feel some anxiety towards SocialFi tokens due to the collapse of FRIEND, the difference in this experiment is that it requires anyone wanting to interact to purchase ANON.

The Bankless analyst team is bullish on ANON's price performance because, while the token lacks fundamental value, it has already gained public recognition from Vitalik. If more crypto audiences interact with this novel experiment, it could lead to viral spread.

Near (NEAR)

• Sector: L1
• Reason: Tapping into the AI narrative, attracting capital attention
• Prediction Period: November 14, 2024, to February 14, 2025
• Price at Prediction: $5.2
• Price Performance to Date: Up 42.88%

On November 11, NEAR Protocol co-founder Illia Polosukhin proposed a plan to create the world's largest open-source model, which would have 14 trillion parameters, 3.5 times larger than Meta's open-source alternative, Llama. According to Polosukhin's report via Cointelegraph, the training and computing costs (estimated at around $160 million) will be funded by selling NEAR tokens, and the model will run on a decentralized computing network.

While increased latency is a common drawback of decentralized computing networks, Polosukhin claims that emerging research from Google's AI subsidiary DeepMind indicates that fast interconnection is also possible.

The Bankless analyst team is bullish on NEAR's subsequent price performance because the combination of a NEAR-centered decentralized computing network and Polosukhin's AI background will be a significant advantage in attracting users, developers, and capital to the network. However, if the market suddenly finds that such activities have limited value, selling NEAR to fund model development could meaninglessly depress prices.

Solana (SOL)

• Sector: L1
• Reason: Trump's election is favorable, continued FOMO sentiment in the bull market
• Prediction Period: November 13, 2024, to February 13, 2025
• Price at Prediction: $217.2
• Price Performance to Date: Up 9.12%

In September, the Bankless analyst team was not optimistic about SOL's price performance, believing that as holders exited the ecosystem to invest in other alternative opportunities, a decline might occur. Although SOL did not perform well compared to popular L1s like APT and SUI afterward, its price in USD steadily rose throughout October and exploded in early November due to favorable results from the U.S. election.

The Bankless analyst team has now turned bullish on SOL, as under Trump's administration, it can still benefit from favorable catalysts—such as the approval of spot ETFs—and due to the bull market, the general assumption about it can continue in the foreseeable future.

Helium Network (HNT)

• Sector: Infrastructure
• Reason: Continuous user growth, strategic partnerships with telecom companies
• Prediction Period: November 12, 2024, to February 12, 2025
• Price at Prediction: $5.95
• Price Performance to Date: Up 43.87%

At the end of July, the Bankless analyst team was not optimistic about HNT's price performance, as the token had fallen 90% from its historical high in 2021 and 55% from its cycle peak on February 15. Additionally, platform revenue had declined, and user growth had significantly slowed after peaking in early March.

However, since then, the data consumption rate of Helium Network has more than doubled, indicating that network usage has also doubled since July. This growth has been primarily driven by Helium Mobile users, whose numbers have increased from 105,336 at the last prediction to 119,934.

Although the total number of Helium Mobile users may not be high, the strategic partnership between Helium and telecom companies helps improve network usage. For example, Telefonica saw an 18.1% increase in the number of devices connected to IoT networks from 2021 to 2022, followed by a 12.2% increase from 2022 to 2023.

Therefore, the Bankless analyst team remains bullish on HNT's price performance, expecting that the continued growth of Helium Mobile users and strategic partnerships with telecom companies will drive the usage of the Helium network, positively impacting the entire Helium ecosystem.

Pendle Finance (PENDLE)

• Sector: DeFi
• Reason: Protocol mechanisms still advantageous in a bull market
• Prediction Period: November 8, 2024, to February 8, 2025
• Price at Prediction: $5.19
• Price Performance to Date: Up 29.09%

On September 20, the Bankless analyst team predicted a bearish outlook for PENDLE's price due to $360 million in earnings expiring later that month. Although Pendle continued to offer market-leading yield opportunities at that time, its token price and total locked value had significantly declined since late June 2024, when a large amount of $3 billion in expiring debt appeared in the liquidity pools created around the peak of the airdrop frenzy in early 2024.

Despite experiencing significant TVL outflows in September, Pendle's token price was not greatly affected, and TVL has shown positive growth since October. Therefore, the Bankless analyst team has revised its outlook to bullish for PENDLE's subsequent performance, believing that its yield Swap remains the leading mechanism in the market, and if the cryptocurrency bull market begins to accelerate, they will be in a favorable growth position.

Lido (LDO)

• Sector: LST
• Reason: Trump's election sparks optimism for Ethereum-related tokens
• Prediction Period: November 7, 2024, to February 7, 2025
• Price at Prediction: $1.34
• Price Performance to Date: Up 56.72%

With the conclusion of the U.S. elections, investors view Trump's victory in the presidential election as a positive for the crypto market. Although Trump did not provide specific policy details during his campaign that he believes could benefit cryptocurrencies, he did promise to fire SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, who claimed that Lido's stETH is an unregistered security. Additionally, before the election, Trump raised $15 million for World Liberty Financial (WLFI), an application expected to become a front-end for Aave deposits.

Although the crypto industry's hopes for the Trump administration are largely based on speculation, he has the potential to fulfill vague promises and direct executive agencies not to enforce regulations against crypto projects during the next four years, with the Republican Party's significant victories in Congress providing the possibility of enacting such reforms into law.

While the Bankless analyst team remains concerned about the continued decline in stETH's market share and Lido's profitability, the bullish outlook for LDO is based on the expectation that Trump's election should stimulate investor optimism for an unknown but seemingly better future.

Uniswap (UNI)

• Sector: DeFi
• Reason: Trump's election sparks market optimism
• Prediction Period: November 6, 2024, to February 6, 2025
• Price at Prediction: $9.29
• Price Performance to Date: Up 65.12%

In October, Bankless was bearish on UNI tokens due to Uniswap's launch of Unichain. Although UNI fell more than 20% in the following month, it began to surge on November 6, marking the largest increase of 2024 (only second to the rise on February 23, which was triggered by the UNI fee conversion proposal that was later blocked by the Uniswap Foundation), and the rise in November was also due to Trump's advantage in the election.

The Bankless analyst team has turned bullish on UNI's price performance, expecting that cryptocurrency participants will be more optimistic about the recent regulatory prospects in the industry, especially when they apply to tokens that may distribute cash flows to holders in a manner similar to dividends.

Jito (JTO)

• Sector: LST
• Reason: Leading LST protocol on Solana, benefiting from the development of Meme coins
• Prediction Period: November 1, 2024, to February 1, 2025
• Price at Prediction: $2.29
• Price Performance to Date: Up 60.26%

In July, the Bankless analyst team was bullish on JTO's price performance, expecting that the deployment of Jito's native staking would solidify its position as the leading liquid staking protocol on Solana. Although JTO's price fell 17% during the first three months of the prediction period, Jito's TVL has steadily reached historical highs in both USD and SOL terms in 2024.

The surge in the number of Meme coins on Solana has also increased MEV opportunities; due to the high slippage generated by these low-liquidity Meme pools, Jito's daily SOL fees have reached an all-time high.

Therefore, the Bankless analyst team is bullish on JTO's subsequent performance, believing that the protocol is solidifying its position as the top liquid staking protocol on Solana, and expects that the popularity of Meme coins (and the tip payments generated by MEV arbitrageurs) will benefit Jito.