V Dog has turned back into V God. Has the much-anticipated imitation season begun?

Source: Talking Li, Talking Outside

Recently, with the performance of ETH prices and the rapid rise of some altcoins in the short term, I've noticed that many people are starting to discuss the topic of altcoin season again. Many KOLs have also seized on this interest, vigorously recommending various altcoin projects through social platforms with slogans of 10 to 50 times returns.

Now:

V Dog has turned back into V God.

Some previously disregarded VC coins have been added back to people's watchlists.

Various so-called signal teachers are becoming active again and flaunting their profits.

Those so-called perpetual profit masters online are telling you that they had already heavily invested in the coins that have risen in the past few days.

And so on…

It seems that no matter how harshly criticized in the past, just a few big bullish candles can lead to a complete 180-degree shift in people's attitudes. Those who previously swore that there would be no altcoin season in this bull market are now asking everyone: Which coin should I buy now?

Just today, I saw Hui Jie say in the group: Trading is just a game of ambush and waiting!

I think this statement is very representative.

In the investment field (including the crypto market), if you want to achieve some success, you need to have a certain level of control over your emotions and strictly establish your trading discipline. In other words, we need to try to ignore all FUD, avoid being directly influenced by others' emotions, and instead conduct our own research (DYOR) and develop our own understanding.

I remember in October, we mentioned in an article that BTC might welcome a new round of upward movement. As shown in the figure below.

With the breakthrough of the key position at that time, BTC rose by about 58% in less than two months and continued to break through new ATHs, reaching nearly $100,000 at its peak. However, as BTC has now re-entered a phase of consolidation, most of those who missed out still hold similar views to those they had after BTC's rise: Bitcoin has already risen a lot; let's wait for a pullback to buy!

As for how much of a pullback we might see next, I don't know. But I can foresee that even if there is a pullback, most people still won't buy. This mentality is quite common, and we have mentioned (and seen) similar situations many times in our previous articles. As shown in the figure below.

When prices are stagnant or falling, they criticize it as garbage; when it rises, they wait for a pullback; when there is a pullback, they hesitate to buy… When prices are stagnant or falling, they continue to criticize it as garbage, and it just goes on like this. Either they always hope to buy at the lowest point (and sell at the highest), or they fall into a state of missing out entirely. Those who have missed out a few times and finally can't resist entering the market often find themselves caught in a new cycle of chasing highs and selling lows…

In short, for many people, trading seems to be this tangled, and in this constant entanglement, they either break their mindset or lose their principal.

Just like we mentioned in the previous article (December 1): even if I now clearly tell you that BTC and ETH are still in an upward trend overall, to be honest, for many people, participating now is likely to lead to them not being able to hold on, or they will likely fall into a state of chasing highs and selling lows. Unless you already have good self-risk management skills and can strictly manage your positions and set reasonable goals.

Goal setting can be divided into two types. Many people always like to set "profit-taking" goals while neglecting "loss-cutting" goals. Remember, no one can achieve perpetual profits in the investment field; you must always leave yourself a Plan B.

In recent days, with the rise of some altcoins, many people's FOMO emotions seem to have resurfaced. As shown in the figure below. Those who were previously stuck in altcoins might be considering whether to withdraw their principal. Meanwhile, those who missed out and think BTC or ETH prices are too high might be looking for others to ask for new wealth codes.

I remember in our previous articles, we shared an Altcoin Season Index. As shown in the figure below.

From this altcoin season index, it reflects that it has now reached the highest level since January 2024, which also means that many altcoins are starting to outperform Bitcoin again, and a new round of altcoin season seems to have begun. As shown in the figure below.

In fact, for the altcoin season, many people were not optimistic for a while, and even some big names said that there would be no altcoin season in this bull market. But this might still be a matter of understanding. It can only be said that if we want to see an altcoin season like the last bull market where "all coins fly together," there may not be much opportunity left. However, as long as the timing for speculation arrives, there are still some altcoins (with too many projects born in this cycle, perhaps only 15-20% of altcoins have a chance) that might yield significant returns in the short term. As shown in the figure below.

Due to liquidity issues, the performance of altcoin seasons often manifests in sector rotation. If we look at historical experience, the general direction is:

First, traditional high-market-cap tokens will see an increase, such as representative coins like XRP, ADA, DOT, etc. Their rise often indicates the potential start of an altcoin season.

Second, some "representative" new projects and relatively low-market-cap projects will be pumped. The market makers have already completed the accumulation of chips, and when the right time comes, they will pump and create greater FOMO to attract retail investors. Of course, some high FDV new projects still need to pay attention to unlocking issues.

Finally, various celebrities/business representatives will bring their "retail investors" into the market. In the last bull market, the main entry was through issuing various NFTs, engaging in blockchain games and the metaverse, while this bull market is likely to see entries through memes and similar projects.

As for the very end, perhaps like historical patterns, after a big bull market, there will only be a mess left and a bunch of retail investors stuck at the peak. However, in the above process, there are indeed many wealth opportunities, but such opportunities are often only grasped and safely exited by a small number of people.

Of course, historical experience cannot fully represent the present and future; it is merely a reference for new possibilities. Therefore, if you want to participate in the above process, you should think clearly about several questions in advance:

Are you entering this field with an investment mindset? Or a speculative mindset? Or a gambling mindset?

How much time and energy can you dedicate to this field? For example, in learning, data research, etc.?

What are your goals in this field? 1x? 10x? Or 100x?

Are you making short-term, medium-term, or long-term investments? What do you define as short-term or long-term?

What is your risk preference? Do you prefer high-market-cap, mid-low market-cap, or low-market-cap projects?

Will you casually trust others (KOLs, etc.) for trading, or do you already have your own investment strategy or logic?

What indicators do you currently use to assist your trading and avoid falling into emotional trading?

If you are stuck in some projects, what is your Plan B?

In summary, the market is always changing, but human nature seems to never change. What we need to do is try to grasp some cyclical patterns within it and use them to our advantage. In a cycle, if some people can make quick and big money, it means that there are definitely others who will lose money. In this market, perhaps only 1% of people can truly make money. As the market continues to change, V God can turn into V Dog, and V Dog can turn back into V God, but a gambling dog will always be a gambling dog (the terminology here is just a reference; I do not mean to belittle anyone, so please do not take it personally).

Note: The above content is merely personal opinions and analyses, intended for learning records and communication purposes only, and does not constitute any investment advice. Any projects or websites mentioned in the article have no direct interest relationship with Talking Li, Talking Outside (Talking Li, Talking Outside does not accept any advertisements from project parties). Please evaluate the safety of the corresponding projects or websites on your own. Investment always carries risks; do not enter situations you do not understand, and do not play in situations you cannot afford to lose.