Billion-dollar "crypto presidential suite," Trump's conspiracy in the bull market

Author: A Ray's New World

Many old players and seasoned investors feel that the bull market in 2024 will be vastly different from that of 2021, and that it presents a different level of difficulty. The challenges include the lack of native narrative creation, the absence of new investors entering the market, the influx of projects with high FDV for harvesting, and the long-awaited mass adoption still showing no signs of progress…

However, as Dickens said, "It was the best of times, it was the worst of times." The key to wealth often lies in the riddle itself.

Following Trump's Bull Market

At the moment Bitcoin was approved for an ETF, crypto assets seemingly became a market dominated by the West. Almost all major positive news and narrative innovations in this round have come from Western capital, whether it's SocialFi, DePIN, or Restaking. In this "most difficult bull market in history," one can simply switch to Easy mode by following Trump and Western concepts.

Trump's Positive Meme

BTC

After Trump took office, BTC was the first to lead the charge. With the memories of the 2021 boom still fresh, many old players hope to replicate the previous Alt season, while new players are lost in the fantasy of "going all in on altcoins and lying down to get rich." However, in this bull market, holding BTC has already outperformed a portfolio full of altcoins.

Since the beginning of the year, BTC has surged from 40k to around 98k, achieving a return of over 200%. The only assets that have outperformed BTC during this period are those in the meme sector and some mainstream public chain tokens (such as SOL and SUI), while most altcoins have shown little price difference compared to the beginning of the year.

Before the election, Trump has been publicly promoting BTC. At the Bitcoin 2024 conference held in Nashville, Trump appeared and delivered a nearly one-hour speech, claiming he would "fire the SEC chairman" and "never sell your Bitcoin." He also announced plans to establish a national strategic reserve for Bitcoin and ensure that the U.S. becomes the world's crypto center and a Bitcoin superpower. After Trump's election, the various favorable policies and positive commitments towards Bitcoin are quite rare in the global capital market. With Trump's endorsement, BTC broke through the long-standing resistance at the 70k mark with brute force, achieving a 40% increase in a short period.

In addition to the ETF, the national strategic reserve and Bitcoin superpower narrative have become the biggest stories for BTC.

DOGE

As the original meme coin, Dogecoin has deep ties with Musk and Trump. In April 2019, Musk tweeted that Dogecoin was his favorite cryptocurrency, calling it "cool." In May 2021, during an episode of Saturday Night Live, Musk referred to himself as the "Dogefather" and called Dogecoin "the people's crypto." Over time, Musk has become increasingly associated with Dogecoin, even becoming its public image spokesperson. To this day, DOGE has gone through four bull and bear cycles but remains firmly in the top ten of crypto market capitalization.

Most people hold the belief that "the market cap is too large to move" and "buy new, not old," and thus do not pay much attention to DOGE. However, after its launch, DOGE embarked on an independent rally, stunning everyone with its "path to growth." It has quadrupled in the past year and doubled in the past month, heading straight for $1.

PEPE

The name Pepe comes from the character Pepe the Frog created by American cartoonist Matt Furie, first appearing in his work "Boy's Club." This character won affection with its cute appearance and comical expressions, gaining some attention on the internet. Pepe the Frog first appeared in a comic in 2005 and later became a widely recognized meme in internet culture. Pepe Coin was launched on Ethereum in April 2023 and began to surge in February of this year after nearly a year of consolidation. It has since maintained a market cap fluctuating in the billions.

As a popular meme in the West, Pepe went live on Robinhood and Coinbase after being dormant for six months. Robinhood, the largest trading platform for U.S. stocks, previously only listed DOGE and SHIB as meme coins, and the addition of PEPE indicates the U.S. market's recognition of PEPE. This significant development for Pepe in the U.S. market led to a 50% surge, briefly breaking the $10 billion mark.

WIF

In late December 2019, images of various logos and images added to beanies became popular as profile pictures among esports organizations and celebrities on Twitter. WIF, short for dogwifhat, was inspired by the original meme "DOGE," combined with the viral characteristics of the beanie.

WIF's trajectory is similar to that of PEPE, making it a younger sibling of PEPE. On November 14, when Coinbase listed dogwifhat (WIF), it surged over 30% on the day, nearing its previous high. In addition to already being listed on Coinbase, Robinhood also listed WIF on November 25, making WIF the first Solana memecoin to go live on Robinhood.

PNUT

PNUT is the most frequently mentioned animal meme by Musk in this cycle, aside from DOGE.

The squirrel image of PNUT comes from a squirrel named "Peanut" adopted by an engineer named Mark seven years ago. Mark often shared videos of his interactions with Peanut on Instagram, gradually gaining hundreds of thousands of followers. However, nearby residents complained to the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC) about Peanut, claiming it carried infectious diseases. Confusingly, the DEC entered Mark Longo's home without a search warrant and took Peanut away. Mark Longo then launched a petition on social media, which garnered tens of thousands of signatures. Unfortunately, Peanut was ultimately euthanized by the DEC.

After Peanut's euthanasia, Dogecoin condemned the Democrats, and Musk mourned Peanut on social media, claiming that Trump's presidency would save Peanut. The animal image represented by Peanut is not just a meme of an internet celebrity but has begun to accumulate a "Trump" political buff.

Due to the rapid surge in PNUT's early stages, many retail investors began to "take profits," leading to a nine-day consolidation. PNUT has stabilized at a small level today and shows signs of a pullback.

In my previous article in the "Bull Market Bottom Fishing" series, I provided a detailed narrative analysis of PNUT ("Why $PNUT is the Biggest Alpha of This Cycle? | Bull Market Bottom Fishing List"), explaining why PNUT has been able to maintain a steady market cap above $1 billion, while most memecoins struggle to break through the $1 billion ceiling.

In addition to these memes, there are also DOGE, which is highly related to Musk (as a new government department established by Musk after Trump's election), and Banana (the logo on Musk's rocket).

Trump's Beneficial Enterprises

People often rely on historical experiences from previous bull markets, following the usual investment logic of the "pyramid cup": BTC leads the way, excess funds flow into mainstream coins like ETH, and then overflow into lower market cap altcoins, ushering in an "alt season." In this BTC bull market under the U.S. administration, the market has belatedly realized that there seems to be no alt season. "BTC has always led the way, and funds have never overflowed."

However, the alt season hasn't disappeared; it has simply taken on a different form: the funds that overflowed from BTC have gone into U.S. stocks related to BTC concepts.

COIN

COIN is the stock of Coinbase, which has achieved an astonishing 800% increase this year. Before the election, Coinbase's stock price continued to rise due to the arrival of the crypto bull market. Although COIN experienced a pullback mid-year, Coinbase's stock price surged 31% on November 6, 2024, due to the election results, rising from $193.96 to $254.31. Investing in COIN is akin to investing in the beta of "U.S. crypto assets," as any positive news related to crypto assets is almost always absorbed by COIN's stock price.

Aside from COIN, other crypto-related U.S. stocks also show strong momentum.

MSTR

MicroStrategy is a company that develops business intelligence software, but in 2020, it adopted a "debt issuance to buy Bitcoin" strategy. To date, MicroStrategy holds 1.2% of the total circulating supply of Bitcoin, making it the publicly traded company with the most Bitcoin in the world. MicroStrategy's stock price has skyrocketed 1000% in a year, far exceeding Bitcoin's returns.

MicroStrategy's strategy of issuing debt to buy Bitcoin has led many to worry that MSTR could be the next LUNA, but in reality, MicroStrategy's safety is much better than that of LUNA. Moreover, its next repayment period is in 2027, which is still a long way off.

In addition to companies like MicroStrategy that rely on Bitcoin, many "small-cap" companies have begun to emulate MicroStrategy's strategy. For example, fitness equipment company Interactive Strength (TRNR) announced plans to purchase up to $5 million worth of Bitcoin after its board approved cryptocurrency as a treasury reserve asset. Following this announcement, the company's stock price surged over 80%. Similarly, "small-cap" companies like LQR House (LQR), Cosmos Health (COSM), Nano Labs (NA), Gaxos (GXAI), Solidion Technology (STI), and Genius Group (GNS) also saw their stock prices briefly surge after announcing Bitcoin treasury plans in November.

Western Concept Public Chains

In addition to cryptocurrencies closely related to Trump, the presidency of this Bitcoin president is a significant boon for all crypto projects rooted in the West. Not only will the regulation of crypto assets in the U.S. be relaxed, but it will also facilitate the inflow of traditional financial capital into crypto assets. Among the tokens listed on Coinbase, traditional U.S. brokerages can first access not only BTC and ETH but also ADA, BCH, DOT, XRP, and others. Similarly, when the floodgates open, the water will flow to the larger containers.

SOL

Solana, one of the high-performance public chains that challenged Ethereum in the last cycle, seems to have "partially" replaced Ethereum's position in the crypto ecosystem in this round. In the previous cycle, Solana thrived with the support of FTX, but after FTX's collapse, Solana became a target of FUD, with a low point of only $11. Since September 2023, Solana has entered a trending market. Over the past year, Solana has become the true meme public chain in the entire crypto space due to its high performance and low gas fees, forming a unique gameplay centered around memes, successfully breaking through $200 and once again challenging its previous highs.

XRP

At the beginning of this cycle, XRP was mired in legal disputes with the SEC and regulatory challenges. In December 2020, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filed a lawsuit against Ripple Labs, accusing it of conducting an unregistered securities offering through the sale of XRP. The SEC argued that XRP met the criteria for a security and therefore needed to be registered and comply with federal securities laws. Due to the SEC's lawsuit and the regulatory uncertainty surrounding XRP's classification, several cryptocurrency exchanges, including Coinbase, delisted XRP. On August 7, 2023, the court issued a final ruling, requiring Ripple to pay a civil penalty of $125.0351 million and prohibiting the company from further violating the Securities Act.

Ripple CEO claims on FOX News that an XRP ETF will be launched in 2025

However, after Trump took office, XRP not only cleared the shadows of past regulatory issues but also saw multiple institutions rush to apply for an XRP ETF.

In early October, Bitwise and Canary Capital submitted applications for an XRP ETF to the SEC. On November 2, 21Shares submitted an application for the "21Shares Core XRP Trust" ETF to the SEC, joining the ranks of those seeking approval for an XRP ETF. On November 25, WisdomTree Funds submitted a fund registration application named "WisdomTree XRP Fund" in Delaware and prepared to submit an S-1 registration to the SEC.

Although the SEC has yet to approve any ETF, once Trump officially takes office, crypto asset ETFs may be approved in bulk.

UNI

Uniswap, as the flagship application of crypto, has become many people's "first stop on the chain." To this day, it remains the highest-grossing DApp. It accounts for 50% of the trading volume among all DEXs and has consistently held the top position in DEXs. However, UNI is not in most people's portfolios, primarily due to the beliefs that "the $7 billion market cap is too large and lacks a profit effect" and "UNI is a worthless token with no practical use."

Uniswap's potential extends beyond being the leading DEX. In October of this year, Uniswap announced the launch of Unichain, designed specifically for DeFi, while the biggest benefits of the UNI token have yet to be realized. As the largest DEX in crypto, the SEC has also been sharpening its knives, looking to collect protection fees. On April 10 of this year, the SEC warned Uniswap, planning to take enforcement action against the company. The core controversy lies in whether the UNI token, if it seeks to empower and distribute Uniswap's transaction fees to token holders, would conflict with the Securities Act. If Trump takes office, UNI would be free from regulatory constraints, and its "dividend" nature could elevate UNI to new heights.

BASE

Base is a Layer 2 solution backed by Coinbase. Although it has not yet issued a token, Base's fundamentals far exceed those of other L2s. Not only does it provide a smoother trading experience than the mainnet, but many native narratives have also emerged on Base, such as various SocialFi projects. In the meme sector, Base is also making its mark, starting to seize the "AI meme" opportunity from Solana. Whether it's VIRTUAL, which supports the bulk issuance of AI agents, or Pump.fun CLANKER on Base, the wave of AI has quietly begun to rise on Base. Among them, Clanker has already surpassed a market cap of $100 million today, breaking many people's preconceived notions of the asset ceiling on the Base chain.

Similarly, there are older projects like DOT and ADA that have large market caps and are considered too early.

Conclusion

In research and analysis, many people often fall into the psychological trap of "only I exist in the world," seeking alpha that only a few people pay attention to.

From a young age, there has been too much noise around us: in traditional education, teachers often give more attention to students who can solve problems with new methods; in martial arts novels, the highly skilled monk sweeping the floor often has his own "secret technique." Influenced by such social habits, when entering the market, one may also be affected by this "only I exist in the world" prisoner’s dilemma.

Most ordinary traders overlook cryptocurrencies in the top 100, or even the top 10, and usually search for small-cap coins worth tens of millions in search of "get-rich opportunities." Instead of expending so much energy tracking various sectors for alpha, it may be more cost-effective to study the "Trump" alpha.