Bitcoin continues to reach new highs, Ethereum is in a state of isolation, and altcoins remain silent

Source: Talking Li, Talking Outside

In the past few days, I came across an interesting comparative viewpoint. Some people say: this cycle's BTC is the new gold, SOL is the new ETH, while ETH has become a new ATOM. This viewpoint likely represents the opinions of many, especially as BTC has been continuously creating historical highs this month, and SOL has maintained its popularity amidst the MemeCoin craze, while ETH's performance seems to leave many dissatisfied.

Recently, many messages in the backend have been inquiries about altcoin prices, and some friends have repeatedly asked me in the public account backend: How high can ETH's price rise before the end of the year? What altcoin should I buy now to make 10 times my investment by the end of the year?

I generally do not respond to such questions. To put it bluntly, if I could accurately know what altcoin to buy now to easily make 10 times my investment by the end of the year, wouldn't it be better for me to invest all my money myself rather than tell you? On the path of investment, when you base your dreams of making money (or getting rich) solely on hoping to rely on others (who are still strangers to you), you are already on the path to losing money. In my understanding, it is impossible to achieve long-term investment success by habitually reaching out to others for simple conclusions.

Moreover, I have a small habit when replying to messages in the backend: I check how many likes/views/appreciations the user has given to historical articles. If these counts show zero, I generally won't respond unless the other party asks more targeted questions, because everyone's time and energy are limited, and effort should be mutual. Furthermore, many of my views and opinions are reflected in historical articles, and you can easily search or revisit those articles to find the content you need.

As I mentioned in a previous article: we should all learn to ask the right questions, not to be direct "hand-out" people, and not to ask questions that only take you five seconds to formulate but require the other party ten minutes or more to answer (for example: "What do you think about…?", "How do you view…?", and similar questions). The reasoning here is simple: whether others are willing to help you with a small effort depends entirely on your attitude and whether you think from their perspective.

As for those who come to the backend to complain or use foul language, I will pay even less attention to them. Many times, we need to reflect on ourselves rather than randomly target others or complain that the market or society isn't giving us opportunities…

Perhaps some bloggers value private traffic (like adding as many people as possible to WeChat) or personal fame (becoming KOLs), and you might assume you are their customer or god, but that doesn't matter to me. Moreover, there are many crypto bloggers online now, and everyone's focus and choices are vast. If you like reading articles, follow them; if you don't, then don't follow them. It's really that simple.

Of course, some people's mentalities are quite restless right now, which I can understand. After all, during a bull market, watching others make money or become rich overnight while holding onto unprofitable (or even losing) altcoins can indeed be frustrating for them. This frustration can lead to two outcomes:

One is constant complaining and cursing.

The other is reviewing and self-reflecting.

Often, making mistakes is not scary; the scariest thing is being unaware of your mistakes. In this field, I have also made many mistakes myself. There were times I lost a lot of money, but fortunately, I later conducted serious reviews and reflections. Even now, I still insist on recording over 10,000 words of notes weekly for learning and thinking.

I remember some partners in the group said I am a person with discipline, but perhaps only I know that this discipline is largely built on my continuous learning and thinking. As I mentioned in a previous article: the logic of many things is not complex, but it requires overcoming fear and laziness. If you lack a foundational knowledge base, when faced with market fluctuations, your mind will lack the discipline to hold on. This is akin to practicing basic skills in martial arts or muscle training; it's essentially the same principle.

I've said so much because the recent influx of messages in the backend has rekindled some feelings in me. However, some may see this as me rambling. Yes, that's the benefit and drawback of self-media: the benefit is that I can say what I want (of course, I won't discuss sensitive topics), and the drawback is that you might waste time reading my words. If, after reading over 500 articles from Talking Li, Talking Outside, you still find them useless, I suggest you unfollow immediately; it might be a good thing for you.

Next, let's continue discussing the topic of altcoins.

Currently, altcoins overall have not shown significant improvement, mainly due to the following factors:

- BTC continues to dominate

Currently, BTC.D has reached around 61.5%, creating a new high in three years, as shown in the chart below.

As long as BTC's price continues to break historical highs, most of the liquidity in the market will be concentrated in Bitcoin, and naturally, altcoins will not see significant improvement.

- MemeCoin continues to absorb liquidity

Although MemeCoin has seen some pullback in recent days, this does not affect its ongoing absorption of the remaining liquidity in the market. Many people have completely abandoned so-called fundamental analysis and no longer pay attention to those so-called valuable altcoins, instead fully FOMOing into MemeCoins, which also leads to poor overall performance of altcoins.

- ETH is in a state of self-isolation

While Bitcoin continues to create historical highs, ETH seems to remain unmoved, completely indifferent to market voices. Many who previously swapped from BTC to ETH are now regretting their decisions. As the king of altcoins, as long as ETH remains stagnant (without significant fluctuations), most altcoins seem to be stuck waiting.

When Bitcoin rises, altcoins dare not move; when Bitcoin falls, altcoins must follow. If the king of altcoins remains inactive, it makes it difficult for those little altcoin brothers to operate.

Solana, along with a bunch of meme little brothers, watches the scene and says: "Look at that person, how strange, like a dog."

Ethereum silently stands still, not looking back.

If we continue to think from the three perspectives mentioned above, it becomes clear that for altcoins to have a new round of upward opportunities, they need to:

- Wait for BTC's trend to stabilize

Once Bitcoin enters a new consolidation phase, some liquidity in the market may come out to seek new opportunities. At that time, altcoins with good fundamentals or those previously undervalued will become new targets for speculation.

- Wait for MemeCoin's popularity to decrease

As a purely speculative and even gambling nature asset, MemeCoin cannot be continuously hyped. Once the narrative heat of MemeCoin begins to decline (this is often when retail investors are most FOMOing), profit-taking may quickly withdraw, and this capital will re-enter those so-called valuable altcoins for speculation.

- Wait for the king of altcoins, ETH, to awaken

Although ETH's current performance leaves many dissatisfied, personally, I still have a relatively optimistic view of Ethereum's development, as ETH is currently the only altcoin through ETF. Once BTC's trend stabilizes and MemeCoin's heat begins to decrease, ETH may finally have its moment to shine, and at that time, a large amount of liquidity is expected to flow back into its ecosystem (DeFi, L2, etc. will benefit simultaneously).

Of course, the above is merely a conceptual outline. As for how much ETH can rise or which altcoins can take off again, no one knows.

Additionally, when mentioning altcoins, many may think of VC coins, especially those low liquidity, high FDV project tokens. After the previous cleansing, many retail investors are now wary of VC, wishing to stay far away from these projects. But, how should we think about this? Perhaps we can consider it from another perspective: do those VCs easily give up?

Or perhaps the VCs are just waiting for new opportunities. They always seem to be ahead of the crowd, and maybe they are brewing new hype or crafting new stories. If the market changes later, we might see things that can reignite people's FOMO. For example, the recent surge of the DeSci concept has directly driven multiple related tokens to create historical highs, which is a typical example of speculation.

Currently, in this phase where almost everyone is pessimistic about Ethereum and altcoins, it is often the best phase for research. If you still believe that altcoins will have a new round of opportunities this year or next, then you should spend more energy on exploration now. For instance, focus on the speculation points that VCs might utilize, such as staking, interoperability, DeFi 3.0, etc. At the same time, pay attention to on-chain data changes, such as changes in TVL growth, user scale growth, etc. If you have more time and energy, you can also follow some VCs or project teams' official Twitter accounts closely to keep an eye on their dynamics; or follow some celebrities/opinion leaders on Twitter. If they start posting or retweeting topics about certain projects, it indicates that those projects may have begun executing some potential plans.

In summary, if we compare the market to a wolf, then retail investors are like sheep that could be eaten by the wolf at any moment. While running, the sheep should aim to stay ahead of other sheep rather than trying to outrun the wolf.

Note: The above content is merely personal viewpoints and analyses, intended for learning records and communication purposes only, and does not constitute any investment advice. Any projects or websites mentioned in the article have no direct financial relationship with Talking Li, Talking Outside (Talking Li, Talking Outside does not accept any advertisements from project parties). Please evaluate the safety of the corresponding projects or websites on your own. Investment always carries risks; do not enter situations you do not understand, and do not play in situations you cannot afford to lose.