Matrixport Market Observation: US stocks give back some gains, BTC breaks ATH, what is the future direction of the crypto market?

In the past week, BTC has started to accelerate its rise, successfully breaking through $93,000 and $94,000 ATH. Although the current BTC price has slightly retreated, it is still fluctuating around $93,400, with a 24-hour maximum increase of over 4.5% (data sourced from Binance spot, November 20, 17:00).

Currently, BTC has become the only investment category in Trump's economy that has not yet given back its gains. Due to extreme levels of long positions and concerns about rising yields, U.S. stocks have given back some of their recent gains. Despite recent geopolitical tensions, U.S. stocks closed relatively flat on November 19, led by Nvidia's upcoming earnings report and tech stocks, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 slightly up, and the Dow Jones slightly down.

Against this backdrop, frequent personnel appointments by Trump, a potential slowdown in U.S. interest rate cuts, and the simultaneous rise in geopolitical risks and BTC's market awareness have led to a peak in secret FOMO sentiment driven by the meme market. Investors need to closely monitor market indicators while capturing gains and managing investment risks.

Market Analysis

In addition to the ongoing escalation of geopolitical tensions, Trump's personnel appointments may be a crucial turning point for the future of cryptocurrency. Whether it is the Secretary of the Treasury or subsequent Federal Reserve appointments, or future SEC policies, they all determine the fate of BTC market adoption.

Geopolitical tensions rise, safe-haven assets are favored by investors

On November 19, local time, the U.S. Department of Defense announced it would provide Ukraine with a batch of weapons worth at least $250 million. The weapons included in this aid package consist of multiple rocket launcher systems, ammunition, Javelin anti-armor munitions, and other facilities and accessories.

Affected by this information, U.S. stocks entered a brief panic after the market opened, with the fear index reaching 17.93, the highest since November 5. Market analysts believe that the escalating geopolitical risks will pose risks to market stability, and with a new president about to take office, the president's attitude will exacerbate uncertainty.

Given the performance of the U.S. economy, the Federal Reserve may adjust short-term interest rate cut expectations

On November 15, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that due to the strong U.S. economy, the Federal Reserve does not need to rush to lower interest rates, and it will carefully monitor to ensure that certain inflation indicators remain within acceptable ranges. Powell reiterated that the path of the Federal Reserve's policy interest rates will depend on upcoming data and the evolution of the economic outlook. He noted that the inflation rate is approaching the Federal Reserve's 2% target but has not yet reached it. The Federal Reserve will closely monitor core inflation indicators for goods and services excluding housing, which have been declining over the past two years. "We expect these indicators to continue to fluctuate within recent ranges, and the path to the Federal Reserve's 2% target may be bumpy at times. But we still believe we are on track regarding inflation."

The Federal Reserve's next meeting will take place from December 17 to 18.

Who will be the U.S. Secretary of the Treasury? A key focus for this week

The market is closely watching the cabinet layout under Trump's administration. Several key positions have become clear, and the selection of the Secretary of the Treasury is highly anticipated, with current popular candidates including Scott Bessent and Howard Lutnick (CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald). According to CNN, Trump is expected to announce his Treasury Secretary candidate early on Wednesday local time.

Bessent is considered a "safe choice" with extensive capital market experience, while Lutnick's company is one of the custodians of Tether, thus receiving particular attention from the cryptocurrency community. Market analysts believe that regardless of who enters the cabinet, both candidates are seen as "supporters of cryptocurrency," providing the cryptocurrency industry with an opportunity to continue receiving political support and promoting the long-term development of BTC as a reserve asset.

Sources: Trump's team lists crypto lawyer Teresa Goody Guillén as a candidate for SEC chair

According to CoinDesk, citing informed sources, Trump's transition team is considering listing Teresa Goody Guillén, a partner at the law firm BakerHostetler and co-head of its blockchain team, as one of the candidates for the next SEC chair. Goody Guillén is an experienced securities lawyer with experience serving the SEC and representing blockchain companies and traditional businesses against the agency.

Insiders in Washington say Trump is looking for a non-bureaucratic individual who supports cryptocurrency to thoroughly reform the SEC. Unlike Trump's first administration, the election process for the second term is swift and orderly, and the SEC chair candidate is expected to be selected before Thanksgiving.

BlackRock's IBIT options debut with nearly $1.9 billion in total trading volume, 82% being call options

Bloomberg senior ETF analyst James Seyffart's monitoring data shows that the final statistics for the first day of BlackRock's IBIT options trading indicate a nominal exposure slightly below $1.9 billion through 354,000 contracts, with 82% being call options (289,000 contracts) and 18% being put options (65,000 contracts), a ratio of 4.4:1.

Investment Advice

Currently, the market is experiencing severe FOMO sentiment, and it is recommended that investors remain rational, ensuring sound risk control while properly allocating assets to capture gains and further mitigate risks.

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