Should Bitcoin be held long-term or sold?

During the online discussion last weekend, when answering a reader's question about whether to keep 25% of the position and never sell, I talked about possibly taking some different approaches after Bitcoin reaches its peak in this cycle.

This question was also raised by a reader at the end of an article in the past couple of days.

In the last cycle, when the bull market approached madness, I mentioned in an article that I would take two measures: one is to set a fixed sell point at a high position, and the other is to keep at least (approximately) 20% to 30% of the position without liquidating it, keeping it forever.

The reason I previously kept part of my position without liquidating it was based on a long-term optimistic view of Bitcoin and Ethereum, which refers to at least the next 10 to 20 years.

The past decade has left us with countless painful examples: most holders of Bitcoin who exited midway during these years perfectly missed the once-in-a-century opportunity that Bitcoin could have brought them to transcend social classes—most of them forever missed out on the larger gains later due to the temptation of trading.

I am also very worried about making the same mistake, but I know I might also be unable to resist the temptation of trading, so I set a rule for myself to at least always hold a portion of my position.

In previous articles, I have mentioned more than once that after reading the works of predecessors like Buffett, Munger, and Fisher this year, I have gained a different understanding of the strategies of "holding long without selling" and "buying low and selling high."

"Holding long without selling" does not mean mechanically holding onto an asset forever without selling, but rather that in many cases, according to the standards these predecessors used to choose those assets, there are actually not many opportunities to sell.

"Buying low and selling high" may seem like a price-driven behavior on the surface, but fundamentally, it has a completely different thought process.

What many people refer to as "buying low and selling high" is actually a decision made by investors based on predicting market trends. Countless cases have shown that, apart from a few genius-like individuals in human history, most investors cannot predict the market accurately, stably, and long-term. Once a prediction goes wrong, all previous gains may be lost.

So what about these predecessors' "buying low and selling high"?

Their "buying low and selling high" is not based on predicting future market trends but rather on judging the "intrinsic value" of the assets they hold and then comparing it with the market price to make decisions.

We can clearly see the contrast between these two ways of thinking with a simple example.

For instance, if Apple's stock price today is $200.

If predicting future market trends, the operation would be as follows:

I estimate the market will drop tomorrow, so I will sell Apple today; I estimate the market will rise tomorrow, so I will buy Apple today.

If comparing the intrinsic value and price of Apple, the operation would be as follows:

I estimate Apple's actual value is $500, so I will buy today; I estimate Apple's actual value is $50, so I will sell today.

If we think about Bitcoin in the way these predecessors do, then my core logic should be to estimate Bitcoin's "intrinsic value" and then compare this value with the price to derive my operational approach.

The specific thought process is roughly as follows:

As I mentioned earlier, I am optimistic about Bitcoin's development over the next 10 years, so my fundamental starting point is to estimate Bitcoin's value with a 10-year horizon.

If I estimate that Bitcoin's "value" will reach $300,000 in 10 years, then there is no need to sell at today's price of $100,000. Moreover, within these 10 years, even considering leaving some safety margin, Bitcoin priced below $200,000 is still cheap and worth buying.

Following this line of thought, theoretically, as long as Bitcoin does not reach $300,000 within these 10 years, I should continue to hold rather than sell.

So, setting aside emotions, what I should do rationally is very clear.

But I know that habitual thinking might make it difficult for me to accept this line of thought in a short time, so I can try to change my habits little by little—starting from this cycle.

Therefore, I mentioned in the online discussion that if Bitcoin's price continues to reach new highs next year, as long as it is not excessively high, I will increase the proportion of my forever-held position, such as reaching 40% or more.