The first "Crypto President" is born! The wheels of fate for cryptocurrency have begun to turn

Author: flowie, ChainCatcher

Editor: Nianqing, ChainCatcher

Trump is elected! The first cryptocurrency president of the White House is born!

On November 6, Beijing time, the most dramatic presidential election in American history has finally come to an end. According to real-time election data from Fox News, Trump defeated Harris, who received 62.142405 million votes, with a lead of 67.121735 million votes, successfully obtaining 277 electoral votes, surpassing the 270-vote threshold to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

Trump's continued lead and successful election have propelled BTC to briefly break through $75,000, setting a new historical high, and various sectors of cryptocurrency have entered a period of widespread growth.

The 2024 U.S. election is destined to leave a significant mark in the history of cryptocurrency. Since the birth of Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency industry has gone through 16 years and three election cycles, finally entering the campaign stage of the U.S. election in a meaningful way.

Behind politicians like Trump playing the "crypto card" is the growing strength of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and the accumulation of power from crypto voters.

Regardless of whether Trump's crypto promises materialize after taking office, the wheels of cryptocurrency's fate may have already begun to turn.

Trump's Crypto Promises

Compared to Harris's unclear stance on cryptocurrency, Trump's ongoing crypto promises have made him the most anticipated presidential candidate in the crypto community.

The crypto community has bet billions of dollars on Polymarket for Trump's election. Trump's multiple statements regarding cryptocurrency have driven significant increases and volatility in BTC.

Looking back at the campaign period, Trump's promised crypto policies mainly include the following aspects:

Trump has repeatedly emphasized the status of cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin. He has claimed he wants to create a global cryptocurrency capital. He adheres to the "America First" principle, believing that the crypto industry is in its infancy and could potentially surpass gold in the future. He promises to make the U.S. the global cryptocurrency capital and a Bitcoin superpower.

At the same time, Trump stated at the 2024 Bitcoin Conference that if he can return to the White House, he will classify Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset for the U.S. and will never sell the Bitcoin seized by the government.

Regarding the potential $35 trillion national debt issue that could trigger long-term economic problems in the U.S., Trump has also suggested that it could be addressed through cryptocurrency repayment.

On Bitcoin mining and energy policies. Trump wants "all remaining Bitcoin to be produced in the U.S.," ensuring that Bitcoin is mined, minted, and manufactured in the U.S., making it the undisputed global powerhouse for Bitcoin mining, claiming that this move will help the U.S. become an "energy leader."

Trump plans to build numerous power generation facilities to support Bitcoin mining and other technological developments. He emphasizes that fossil fuels, nuclear energy, and other environmentally friendly methods will be used to meet the demands of high-energy-consuming industries like Bitcoin mining.

In terms of crypto regulation and policy, Trump has also mentioned several targeted proposals.

Under the oppressive regulation of the SEC led by the Democrats, the contradictions between crypto companies, community users, and U.S. crypto regulation are becoming increasingly acute.

Trump's series of regulatory proposals undoubtedly resonate with crypto voters.

Trump stated that on his first day in office, he would fire the current SEC Chairman Gary Gensler. Trump also opposes CBDCs, stating that he will not introduce a central bank digital currency (CBDC) during his presidency.

In response to the crypto community's repeated criticisms of unclear and non-transparent crypto regulatory policies, Trump stated that within his first 100 days in office, there will be corresponding regulations.

He will formulate comprehensive crypto policies ranging from stablecoin regulation to Bitcoin self-custody rights. He also stated that he would end the Biden-Harris administration's suppression of cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin, establish a Presidential Advisory Committee on Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, and design transparent regulatory guidelines to promote the development of the entire industry.

Additionally, Trump promised to reduce the sentence of Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht to the time already served.

Trump's "light regulation, heavy innovation" crypto promises have injected significant confidence into the crypto community, as the community generally believes it will gain a more lenient regulatory environment.

Among many promises, anonymous crypto market analyst and trader Crypto Rand believes that ensuring a solid regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies and making them legal is one of Trump's most important commitments. He believes that Congress and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission have repeatedly indicated a lack of understanding of the crypto industry and its development.

Moreover, Trump's promise to empower cryptocurrency users with self-custody rights essentially incorporates "not your keys, not your coins" into U.S. federal law.

Several politicians and crypto companies also believe that Trump's presidency will hasten the end of Gary Gensler's term, who is referred to as the "crypto exterminator." U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis from Wyoming stated that SEC Chairman Gary Gensler may resign from his position next year.

Regarding the vision of establishing a Bitcoin strategy, asset manager Bryan Courchesne also believes that while it is challenging, it is not impossible. He stated that the Department of Justice could transfer approximately 200,000 seized Bitcoins to the Treasury as reserve assets and continue to accumulate digital currencies to establish a Bitcoin strategic reserve, although this process may face cumbersome administrative procedures.

However, many in the crypto community, including former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes, believe that Trump's crypto promises are merely a vote-buying strategy and do not hold much hope for actual fulfillment. Arthur Hayes suggested that these crypto declarations could become empty promises before any relevant legislation is officially enacted.

Especially in Trump's political career, he has repeatedly broken his promises. For example, promises regarding healthcare plans and the border wall have not been fulfilled.

Trump's crypto promises also face challenges in fulfillment.

In terms of the Bitcoin reserve strategy, Ric Edelam, founder of the digital asset advisory platform Digital Assets Council of Financial Professionals, believes that theoretically, cryptocurrencies could help solve the long-standing national debt problem in the U.S., and Bitcoin reserves could significantly reduce or even eliminate the national debt.

However, the reality may be that Trump might not be able to successfully establish a reserve fund. Or even if he succeeds, his successor might cancel it. Ric Edelam believes that Trump's "using cryptocurrency to solve the U.S. national debt problem" should be seen as an interesting statement made during his campaign, nothing more.

The vision of making the U.S. a Bitcoin mining powerhouse has also been criticized as overly idealistic.

Currently, the Bitcoin supply cap is 21 million, and about 90% has already been mined. Ben Gagnon, CEO of the cryptocurrency mining company Bitfarms, stated that if Trump reduces red tape and increases support and investment in energy and power infrastructure, the U.S. will solidify its position as the most competitive place for Bitcoin mining globally, making it absolutely possible and desirable for the U.S. to become the number one country for Bitcoin mining.

However, due to the decentralized nature of Bitcoin's infrastructure, it is impossible for the remaining Bitcoin mining to be concentrated in one country, making it impossible for 100% of Bitcoin to be mined in the U.S. or any other single country, fundamentally contradicting the core principles of Bitcoin's creator, Satoshi Nakamoto.

Additionally, firing Gary Gensler immediately upon taking office may not be as easy as Trump claims. The dismissal process may involve multiple steps and legal procedures, requiring reasonable justification for the firing, which may necessitate a series of legal reviews and administrative transitions. Trump may still face a situation of co-governance with Gary Gensler.

Crypto Market Trend Predictions

Although Trump's crypto promises await the test of time, the market is generally optimistic about the crypto market after Trump's election.

****Multiple analysts believe that ***BTC will continue to set historical highs, even completing its first breakthrough of $100,000 by the end of the year.*

Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick stated that BTC will rise another 10% in the coming days and reach $125,000 by the end of this year.

Bernstein analysts have indicated that Bitcoin prices could reach between $80,000 and $90,000. Jeff Park, head of alpha strategies at crypto asset management firm Bitwise, predicts that Bitcoin's price could rise to $92,000.

Early Bitcoin investor Erik Finman stated that Trump's policies will ignite the crypto market and drive significant growth across the board. He believes that Trump's victory could push Bitcoin prices up to $100,000.

By the end of 2025, Bernstein Research's forecast report on Bitcoin prices indicates that Bitcoin prices could reach as high as $200,000. PlanB, the creator of the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, boldly predicts that BTC could reach $1 million.

In addition to BTC's trend, Trump's presidency may also have a significant impact on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the progress of cryptocurrency ETFs, and meme coins.

Trump has promised to significantly lower interest rates after being elected, but David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, stated that if Trump is elected, the Federal Reserve may pause its easing cycle as early as December. This is because Trump's expansionary fiscal policy plans will drive up inflation and prevent interest rates from falling.

Kelly also pointed out that if the Republican Party wins big with Trump's victory, more expansionary fiscal policies will emerge, potentially triggering trade wars, increasing deficits, and leading to higher interest rates.

Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), also believes that if Trump is elected, especially with Republicans controlling Congress, future interest rates may be higher than expected.

Regarding cryptocurrency ETFs , Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, believes that if Trump is elected, it will accelerate the approval of Ethereum ETFs that allow staking. Nate Geraci also stated that the rebound in net inflows for Ethereum ETFs is just a matter of time.

In terms of the progress of approvals for other cryptocurrency ETFs beyond BTC and ETH, Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, stated that after Trump's election, whether BlackRock joins Bitwise, VanEck, and other companies hoping to expand cryptocurrency ETFs beyond BTC and ETH (such as XRP and SOL) will have "considerable opportunities" for more cryptocurrency ETFs to emerge.

However, Trump's presidency may have a negative impact on meme coins. Nic Carter, co-founder of Castle Island Ventures, stated on his social media platform that the hype around meme coins is largely a reaction to the SEC's oppressive regulation. If the SEC regulates rationally, the market demand for trading meme coins will decrease.

Therefore, if Trump is elected, the situation may change. Overseas crypto KOL @malekanoms predicts that Trump's victory will have a negative effect on meme coins.

@malekanoms believes that a Republican victory will overturn everything, restoring initial coin offerings (ICOs), achieving universal airdrops, and other forms of token rationalization. Additionally, they may also make fee conversions and token dividends possible. The rationalization of regulation in the U.S. will refocus attention on dApps and other truly important matters, but it may also lead to a prolonged bear market.

While many opinions suggest that Trump's election will be a turning point for a new bull market in crypto, some crypto enthusiasts believe that the impact of the election is limited.

From the past two election cycles, whether Republican or Democratic presidential candidates took office, there has been no significant impact on the upward trend of the crypto market. The factors that truly have a long-term impact on the crypto market remain the industry's own technological development, Federal Reserve meeting decisions, and other key factors.

Crypto Supporters Behind Trump

Trump's election may bring better development opportunities for his crypto supporters. Several leaders in the crypto industry have donated to Trump's super political action committees, the Trump 47 Committee and America PAC.

According to incomplete statistics, a16z co-founders Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz each donated $2.5 million to Trump's super PAC.

The founders of the crypto exchange Gemini and Winklevoss Capital Management also collectively donated over $2 million.

Additionally, two partners from Sequoia Capital, Douglas Leone and Shaun Maguire, donated $1 million and $500,000, respectively.

Kraken co-founder Jesse Powell also donated $500,000. David Bailey, CEO of media group BTC Inc., donated over $498,000 in Bitcoin.

Ripple's Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty donated $300,000 in XRP.

For the First Time on the Election Stage, the Wheels of Crypto's Fate May Have Already Started Turning

Trump's strong emphasis on the "crypto card" has allowed cryptocurrency, since the birth of Bitcoin, to truly step onto the U.S. election stage for the first time after 16 years and three election cycles.

And this is backed by favorable timing, location, and human factors, including the continuous expansion of Bitcoin and crypto market value, the "accumulation of sand into a tower" by crypto users, and the collision of election cycles with the crypto bull market cycle.

The last election year was 2020, when crypto was in a bear market, and Bitcoin was around $8,000. In 2024, crypto enters a bull market, with Bitcoin repeatedly breaking through $70,000, once surpassing the market value of silver, having long since transformed from a fringe asset into a mainstream global asset.

Young crypto voters and the rising crypto donations have also become an undeniable force for crypto politicians.

A report by payment company Triple-A indicates that by 2024, the global digital currency user base will reach 562 million (accounting for 6.8% of the global population), meaning that 6.8% of the global population owns cryptocurrency. Among them, 34% of cryptocurrency holders are aged between 24 and 35. The youth and diversity of crypto users have significantly influenced the key battlegrounds of the U.S. election.

According to a report by security.org, the number of cryptocurrency holders in the U.S. is estimated to reach 93 million, meaning over 30% of Americans own cryptocurrency. Research released by Coinbase showed that one-sixth of cryptocurrency holders reside in key states. Moreover, 90% of crypto voters expressed enthusiasm for voting on November 5 in support of cryptocurrency candidates, four times that of non-voters.

In the 2024 election cycle, it also marks the beginning of the SEC's oppressive regulation of crypto. In 2024, crypto and settlement funds set a new high of nearly $20 billion, and leading crypto companies have become targets of crypto crackdowns. This has prompted many crypto companies or investment institutions, such as Ripple, Coinbase, Kraken, and a16z, to attempt to gain a better survival environment through political donations.

In 2024, the amount of donations from crypto traders participating in the election has also reached a historical high, significantly surpassing the previous election cycle.

Regardless of whether Trump fulfills his crypto promises as expected, it does not affect the 2024 U.S. election becoming an important milestone in the history of crypto development.

As a super "influencer," Trump's flamboyant use of the crypto card during his campaign has attracted a larger global audience to pay attention to and even participate in crypto.

In addition to making crypto promises to garner votes, Trump and his family have accepted crypto donations, continued with NFTs, launched the "Trump DeFi Official Channel," and even introduced the cryptocurrency project World Liberty Financial, which has, to some extent, brought crypto into the mainstream spotlight.

Moreover, the crypto prediction platform Polymarket has become one of the most talked-about crypto products under Trump's repeated endorsements. Its election prediction data has been cited in reports by Bloomberg, CNBC, and others, with Bloomberg terminals even adding Polymarket's election odds to their services.

With multiple forces facilitating crypto's entry into the 2024 U.S. election stage and mainstream visibility, crypto is expected to become an indispensable force in the U.S. election, and the wheels of crypto's fate may have quietly begun to turn.