Matrixport Market Observation: BTC briefly breaks through 89K ATH, can it reach new highs before the end of the year?

With the crypto-friendly President Trump winning, crypto assets led by BTC have recently seen good gains. Since November 11, BTC has entered a rapid upward channel, breaking through resistance levels of $80,000 and $82,000, and then surging with an astonishing increase of over 10%, strongly standing above $89,000, reaching a high of $89,940. At the same time, ETH also broke through the $3,000 resistance level, rising by 6.4%. As of the publication of this article, the BTC price has slightly retraced, fluctuating around $88,000 (the above data is sourced from Binance spot, November 12, 17:00).

Since November 2021 (the peak of the last bull market), the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has surpassed $3.1 trillion for the first time. In addition to crypto assets, U.S. stocks also closed sharply higher yesterday, with all three major indices hitting historical highs, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average crossing 44,000 points for the first time and the S&P 500 breaking through 6,000 points for the first time. As market attention to crypto assets gradually increases, net inflows of dollars into crypto assets have also surpassed ATH. Amid the crypto FOMO sentiment triggered by Trump, investors should approach it rationally, manage risks appropriately, and allocate risks wisely.

Market Analysis

The acceptance of the crypto asset market is gradually increasing, and institutions increasing their BTC holdings may further boost traditional capital's enthusiasm for holding crypto assets. This week, Devcon is starting, and the technological collisions are worth paying attention to.

Last week, net inflows of dollars reached $6.283 billion, a historical high for weekly dollar inflows into the crypto market since January 2022

SoSoValue data shows that last week (Eastern Time November 4 - November 10), the net inflow of dollars into the cryptocurrency market reached $6.283 billion. Among them, the net inflow of U.S. Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs reached $1.792 billion; the net inflow of fiat-backed stablecoins (USDC, USDT, FDUSD, TUSD, PYUSD, USDP, GUSD) reached $4.492 billion. As of November 12, 18:00, the total cumulative net inflow into the cryptocurrency market reached $184.04 billion.

Institutions continue to increase their BTC holdings, MicroStrategy purchases 27,200 BTC

MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor posted on the X platform revealing that MicroStrategy purchased 27,200 BTC for approximately $2.03 billion, with an average purchase price of $74,463. This information follows last week's announcement by MicroStrategy of a three-year investment plan for 42 billion BTC, marking another positive development for BTC.

Core researcher of the Ethereum Foundation (EF) to announce a proposal for redesigning the Ethereum consensus layer

Justin Drake, a core researcher at the Ethereum Foundation (EF), posted on X stating: "Tomorrow at 5 PM, I will announce a significant plan on the main stage at Devcon. For the past year, I have been thinking about what a redesigned Ethereum consensus layer from scratch would look like. My goal is to propose a reliable strategy to launch an ambitious and exciting beacon chain roadmap within a reasonable timeframe. After months of discussions with researchers and consensus developers, I am finally ready to publicly present my proposal. It is still too early, and if this new approach to the consensus layer roadmap can reach a preliminary consensus, your participation is crucial."

Total open positions for BTC contracts across the network exceed $50 billion, setting a historical high

On November 12, Coinglass real-time data showed that the total open positions for BTC futures contracts across the network were 612,630 BTC (approximately $5.33 billion).

Macroeconomic Dynamics

Biden and Trump to meet at the White House on the 13th

According to Jin10 news, the White House announced on the 9th that, at the invitation of President Biden, Trump, who won the 2024 presidential election, will meet with Biden at the White House at 11 AM Eastern Time on the 13th (midnight next Thursday Beijing time).

Federal Reserve officials to make intensive speeches, U.S. October CPI data to be released on November 13

According to Jin10 news, this week, many Federal Reserve officials will "appear" to give speeches, with the most important likely being Powell's speech next Friday. Given that the latest Federal Reserve policy statement removed references to progress on inflation and increased confidence in achieving targets, emphasizing the dual risks of employment and inflation, investors need to closely monitor their views on "Trump's return" and whether the Federal Reserve will pause interest rate cuts in the future.

At the same time, on November 13, the U.S. October CPI data will be released, which will also have a significant impact on market expectations for interest rate cuts.