Single account profit of 16 million, 3.6 billion dollars poured into Polymarket to bet on the election

BlockBeats
2024-11-06 22:41:49
Collection
Under the high stakes gamble, Polymarket emerges as the biggest winner.

Author: shushu, BlockBeats

During this year's entire election cycle, the most prominent application in the crypto space, aside from Pump.Fun, is the prediction market Polymarket. Due to Polymarket's excellent operation during the election and the promotion by Trump and some KOLs, the positioning of "who can you bet on to be the next president on Polymarket" spread rapidly. The trading volume related to the presidency continued to rise as election night approached, and by noon on November 6, the influx of users to the Polymarket website caused its servers to experience a brief crash.

Throughout the election cycle, the odds changes on Polymarket have shown a high sensitivity to news compared to traditional polling agencies. Money always leads news; even before the results were decided in swing states, Trump's winning probability on Polymarket was already rising.

The cumulative trading volume for election-related prediction trades on Polymarket has reached $3,612,184,597, with trading volume related to Republican candidate Trump approaching $1.48 billion, while Democratic candidate Harris's trading volume stands at $1.01 billion.

Leading Traditional Polls, Going Viral

On November 6, Polymarket's data showed that Trump's winning probability experienced significant fluctuations. At 1 AM, Trump's winning probability was 59.4%, having previously risen to 63% earlier. By 9:46 AM, Trump's winning probability rose to 71.1%, while Harris's dropped to 29.1%. By 11:17 AM, Trump's winning probability further climbed to 88.6%. Subsequently, Trump maintained a lead in key swing states, and the odds changes on Polymarket were very rapid, with everyone speaking with their money.

According to Protos data, Polymarket and Kalshi were compared with the election odds from The New York Times (NYT) and Nate Silver, and the differences were evident. For example, on October 31, Polymarket had Trump's chances of winning the U.S. election at 66%, while The Hill only had it at 48%.

Looking at a broader sample, the averages from traditional polling agencies like Nate Silver, NYT, or FiveThirtyEight show that the odds between Trump and Harris have only been within a few basis points over the past period. Clearly, based on the results, Polymarket's outcomes, driven by trading activity, are more convincing compared to traditional polling agencies.

On November 6, according to data from app analytics platform SensorTower, the regulated prediction market platform Kalshi currently ranks first in the Apple financial app category and also ranks first among free apps. Meanwhile, Polymarket has risen to second place in the free app rankings, marking the highest ranking for both applications to date.

Who Profited, Who Lost

Crypto prediction markets have always been seen as products with strong cyclicality and only specific application scenarios, such as political elections and sports events. As the U.S. election cycle nears its end, the future development of Polymarket will be a focus for many, but currently, the most eye-catching aspect is this $3.6 billion election trade. Under heavy bets, French trader Théo placed a $45 million bet on Trump, ultimately becoming the highest-earning user on Polymarket.

In August, Théo sent dozens of emails to Wall Street Journal reporters criticizing what he perceived as biased mainstream media polls favoring Harris. In a Zoom call, he claimed that media supported by the Democrats were paving the way for social unrest by hyping up the fierce competition of the campaign, while he anticipated an overwhelming victory for Trump. Théo expressed surprise at the attention his trades received from the outside world; he started placing low-key bets in August, using the username Fredi9999 to purchase millions of dollars in Trump victory contracts. At that time, Trump's and Harris's odds on Polymarket were basically even.

To avoid drastic price fluctuations, Théo spread his bets over several days. Nevertheless, as the betting amount increased, Théo noticed that other traders would avoid quoting when Fredi9999 was buying, making it difficult for him to place bets at ideal prices. Therefore, he created three additional accounts in September and October to conceal his buying behavior.

If Trump wins and achieves the overwhelming victory he expects, Théo could earn over $80 million, doubling his investment. His main bet was on Trump winning the electoral votes, and he additionally placed millions of dollars on Trump winning the popular vote—a scenario many observers deemed unlikely. Furthermore, he also bet on Trump winning in swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

Today, the election results have finally been revealed, and Théo's account Fredi9999 has achieved a total profit of $16.47 million.

Taking the four betting options under the "Who Will Win the Presidential Election" trade, which has the highest trading volume on Polymarket, BlockBeats has listed the users with the largest profits and losses below.

Trump

The chart below shows the distribution of user bets on whether Trump will be elected president on Polymarket. The left side, labeled "Supporters," represents users who believe Trump will be elected, with the largest holder "zxgngl" holding 29,473,073 shares, currently with total profits of $11.315 million. Other major supporters include the previously mentioned "Fredi9999" and "walletmobile."

On the right side, labeled "Opponents," are users who believe Trump will not be elected, with the largest holder "I95153360" holding 7,107,980 shares, currently with losses amounting to $1.192 million.

Harris

The chart below shows the distribution of user bets on whether Harris will be elected president on Polymarket. The left side, labeled "Supporters," represents those who believe Harris will be elected, with the largest holder "leier" holding 10,871,056 shares, currently with total losses of $4.99 million. Other major supporters include "StarVoting" and "Ly67890."

On the right side, labeled "Opponents," are users who believe Harris will not be elected, with the largest holder being "COMMA-luh," holding 4,878,533 shares. Additionally, this user has also bet on the "Trump Will Be Elected President" trade, with total profits exceeding $210,000.

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