U.S. Election Watching Guide: Key States in a Tight Race, When Will the Final Election Results Be Announced?

On November 5th (Tuesday) in U.S. time, the United States will welcome its quadrennial Election Day. The voting situation on this day will determine the political direction of the United States for the next four years.

As the world's largest economy, the election of its future leader will undoubtedly attract global attention. However, the global "onlookers" should be mentally prepared in advance, as the results of this election are very likely not to be revealed on the election day or the following day, and it may take several days to announce the results.

So, when exactly will the results of this election be available? A detailed analysis may reveal that this could be a very complex issue.

Voting Times Vary by State in the U.S.

Generally speaking, most states in the U.S. will immediately begin counting ballots after voting ends on Election Day. However, due to the vastness of the United States, which spans multiple time zones from east to west, the end times for voting in different states also vary.

This sometimes results in situations where the counting results from Eastern states are already out while some Western states have not yet finished voting.

Here are the closing times for polling stations in each state.

（The bolded entries in the table are key swing states）

Although all states in the U.S. will conduct election voting, previous media polls indicate that the election situation in most states can be predicted in advance, while the final election result will truly be determined by seven swing states.

The Seven Key Swing States in the U.S.

These seven swing states are Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Georgia, and Michigan.

From the table above, it can be seen that Arizona, Nevada, and Wisconsin have later voting end times, which means their counting results may be released later.

Counting Rules Vary by State in the U.S.

What complicates matters further are the different counting rules in each state.

For example, before Election Day, millions of people have already voted early by mail or in person, but in states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, local laws do not allow the counting of millions of mail-in ballots before Election Day. This means that the counting progress in these two states will be slower.

Additionally, one of the key swing states, Nevada, allows mail-in ballots to arrive by 5 PM on November 9th at the latest, which means if the election situation in that state is tight, the final counting results may take several days after Election Day to clarify.

Trey Grayson, who previously served as the president of the National Association of Secretaries of State, stated that after voting ends on Election Day, the counting times across the country may vary: "We have 50 states, plus Washington D.C., and our counting practices are almost all different."

Grayson noted that this could mean "in a very close election, it will be nearly impossible to know who will be president, or who will control the House or Senate on election night."

Final Results May Take Days to Announce

If this election sees a one-sided situation, it is indeed possible to determine a winner the day after Election Day.

For instance, if Trump or Harris can sweep several of the more populous Eastern swing states like Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia, we might be able to determine the election results early the day after Election Day.

However, considering that the polling situation in the seven swing states is so tight, and referencing the last election, we need to mentally prepare in advance: this election may take several days to determine the results.

Polling Situation in Key Swing States in the U.S. (Polling Support Data as of October 28)

In the last election, due to the close polling in swing states, state officials took four days to count all the ballots: After voting ended on November 3rd, it wasn't until November 7th that Biden officially announced winning the election after Pennsylvania's counting results were fully released.

This time, considering that Trump and Harris's polling support rates are even closer, the time required for counting ballots may be even longer.

Counting Results May Face Challenges

Compounding the issue, the Republican Party has already launched hundreds of pre-election lawsuits and legal challenges across the U.S., including questioning the fairness of the election and alleging that non-citizens were allowed to participate in federal elections, which may make the counting process even more difficult.

For example, the Republican Party has initiated a legal challenge in Georgia, demanding that local polling station staff manually count the ballots (instead of machine counting) to ensure the fairness of the counting results—this will undoubtedly greatly reduce the efficiency of the counting work. Currently, Georgia's courts are debating this request initiated by the Republican Party, and voting rights organizations warn that if manual counting is indeed adopted, it could lead to greater chaos.

Moreover, although Election Day has not officially arrived, extreme rhetoric and conspiracy theories regarding voting fairness have already emerged on American social media platforms, which means that the final counting results are likely to be questioned, and even lead to violent incidents—something we have already witnessed four years ago.

Election experts indicate that if people doubt the election results, there may be a wave of denial of election results in countless courts across various states and localities, triggering widespread recounts—this could also delay the official announcement of election results.

Additionally, in some states, if the election situation is extremely close, it may automatically trigger a recount. For example, in Pennsylvania, state law stipulates that if the total vote count difference between the winner and the loser is only 0.5 percentage points, a statewide recount will be automatically triggered.

According to a survey conducted by the independent research organization World Justice Project in June this year, 46% of Republican respondents indicated that they would not accept the legitimacy of the election results if the Democratic candidate wins. 14% of Republicans stated that they would take action to overturn the election results if the Democratic candidate wins.

This means that if Trump loses in this presidential election, whether the Republican Party is willing to accept defeat and whether the U.S. government can achieve a peaceful transfer of power in January may become a question.