U.S. Election Watching Guide: Key States in a Tight Race, When Will the Final Election Results Be Announced?

On November 5th (Tuesday) U.S. time, America will welcome its quadrennial Election Day. The voting situation on this day will determine the political direction of the United States for the next four years.

As the world's largest economy, the election of its future leader will undoubtedly attract global attention. However, the global "onlookers" should prepare themselves mentally in advance, as the results of this election are very likely not to be revealed on the election day or the following day, and it may take several days to announce the results.

So, when exactly will the results of this election be available? A detailed analysis may reveal that this could be a very complex issue.

Voting Times Vary by State in the U.S.

Generally speaking, most states in the U.S. will begin counting votes immediately after the polls close on Election Day. However, due to the vastness of the United States, which spans multiple time zones from east to west, the closing times for polls in different states vary.

This sometimes results in situations where the counting results from Eastern states are already out while some Western states have not even finished voting.

Here are the closing times for polling stations in various states.

（The bold entries in the table are key swing states）

Although all states in the U.S. will conduct election voting, based on previous media polls, the election situation in most states can be predicted in advance, while the final election result will truly be determined by seven swing states.

The Seven Key Swing States in the U.S.

These seven swing states are Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Georgia, and Michigan.

From the table above, it can be seen that Arizona, Nevada, and Wisconsin have later voting end times, which means their counting results may be released later.

Counting Rules Vary by State in the U.S.

What complicates matters further are the different counting rules in each state.

For example, before Election Day, millions of people have already voted early by mail or in person, but in states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, local laws do not allow the counting of millions of mail-in ballots before Election Day. This means that the counting progress in these two states will be slower.

Additionally, one of the key swing states, Nevada, allows mail-in ballots to arrive by 5 PM on November 9th, which means if the election situation in that state is tight, the final counting results may take several days after Election Day to clarify.

Trey Grayson, who previously served as the president of the National Association of Secretaries of State, stated that after the polls close on Election Day, the counting times across the country may vary: "We have 50 states, plus Washington D.C., and our counting practices are almost all different."

Grayson noted that this could mean "in a very close election, it will be nearly impossible to know who will be president, or who will control the House or Senate on election night."

Final Results May Take Days to Announce

If this election sees a lopsided situation, it is indeed possible to determine a winner by the day after Election Day.

For instance, if Trump or Harris can sweep several of the Eastern swing states with a large number of electoral votes, such as Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia, we might be able to determine the election results early the next day.

However, considering the tight polling situation in the seven swing states, and referencing the last election, we need to mentally prepare ourselves: this election may take several days to determine the results.

Polling Situation in Key Swing States in the U.S. (Polling support data as of October 28)

In the last election, due to the close polling in swing states, state officials took four days to count all the votes: After voting ended on November 3rd, it wasn't until November 7th, when the counting results from Pennsylvania were fully released, that Biden officially announced his victory.

This time, considering that the polling support rates for Trump and Harris are even closer, the time required for counting votes may be even longer.

Counting Results May Face Challenges

To make matters worse, the Republican Party has already launched hundreds of pre-election lawsuits and legal challenges across the U.S., questioning the fairness of the election and alleging that non-citizens were allowed to participate in federal elections, which could make the counting process even more difficult.

For example, the Republicans have initiated a legal challenge in Georgia, demanding that local polling station workers manually count the votes (instead of machine counting) to ensure the fairness of the counting results—this will undoubtedly significantly reduce the efficiency of the counting process. Currently, the Georgia courts are debating this request from the Republicans, and voting rights organizations warn that if manual counting is indeed adopted, it could lead to greater chaos.

Moreover, although Election Day has not officially arrived, extreme rhetoric and conspiracy theories about voting fairness have already emerged on American social media platforms, which means the final counting results are likely to be questioned, and may even lead to violent incidents—something we have already witnessed four years ago.

Election experts indicate that if people doubt the election results, there may be a wave of challenges to the election results in countless courts across states and localities, triggering widespread recounts—this could also delay the announcement of the official election results.

Additionally, if the election situation is extremely close in some states, it may automatically trigger a recount. For example, in Pennsylvania, state law stipulates that if the total vote difference between the winner and the loser is only 0.5 percentage points, a statewide recount will be automatically triggered.

According to a survey conducted by the independent research organization World Justice Project in June this year, 46% of Republican respondents indicated that they would not accept the legitimacy of the election results if the Democratic candidate wins. 14% of Republicans stated that they would take action to overturn the election results if the Democratic candidate wins.

This means that if Trump loses in this presidential election, whether the Republican Party is willing to accept defeat and whether the U.S. government can achieve a peaceful transfer of power in January may become a significant issue.