Matrixport Market Observation: The U.S. Election is Stalled, 70K Becomes the Latest Resistance Level for BTC
The U.S. election, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and U.S. stock earnings reports have become the biggest focus of the macro market this week.In the past week, the market has been highly volatile due to the U.S. elections. When the odds of Trump winning on Polymarket rose to 67%, the BTC price briefly broke through $73,620. However, as weekend polls showed a tight race between Trump and Harris, the odds of Trump winning fell to 55%, and on November 5, the BTC price also temporarily dropped to a low of $67,059, with $70,000 becoming the latest resistance level for BTC. As of the publication of this content, the BTC price is fluctuating around $68,800 (data sourced from Binance spot market, November 5, 15:00).
With the U.S. elections nearing conclusion, the market is waiting for the election results. On November 4, Eastern Time, the three major U.S. stock indices closed lower. The U.S. elections, Federal Reserve monetary policy, and U.S. stock earnings reports have become the main focus of the macro market this week.
Market Analysis
First voting results from the election show Trump and Harris each received 3 votes
The small town of Dixville Notch in New Hampshire announced the voting results of 6 voters, with Harris and Trump each receiving three votes. Four Republicans and two unaffiliated voters participated in the voting.
Due to the U.S. elections and daylight saving time, the Federal Reserve meeting has been postponed by one day
Due to the U.S. elections and daylight saving time, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 3:00 AM Beijing time on November 8 (Friday). Traditionally, the Federal Reserve holds its meetings on Tuesday and Wednesday and announces the results on Thursday morning Beijing time, but this time it coincides with the U.S. election voting, hence the meeting has been postponed by one day.
Microstrategy announces a $42 billion BTC investment plan, which may catalyze BTC's long-term development
Last week, Microstrategy announced a three-year $42 billion BTC investment plan, primarily raising funds through stock and convertible bond issuances to increase its BTC holdings. In the long run, this plan may drive up BTC prices.
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With the election data in a deadlock, the market remains unclear about the election results, and traders have lost their trading direction. Data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange shows an increase in hedging demand against price declines, indicating traders' concerns about BTC price drops during the election week. However, many analysts believe that BTC's upward trend will not change due to the presidential candidates.
Whether Trump or Harris is elected, the potential asset movements triggered by their economic policies, as well as the U.S. economy's soft landing, hard landing, or no landing, will be significant. Meanwhile, October data shows that expectations of "tax cuts" and "U.S.-China decoupling" in Trump's economic policies will inevitably lead to a further increase in U.S. Treasury debt, with severe selling pressure.
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