Uptober realized? The market sentiment is conservative before the election
Trump's chances of winning have decreased.Author: BitpushNews
On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Labor released the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, showing that the core PCE price index for September rose 2.7% year-on-year, higher than the expected 2.6%. The PCE price index for September was 2.1%, the lowest level since early 2021, slightly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target.
Following the data release, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond (TNX) briefly climbed to 4.33%, causing a downturn in the financial markets.
By the close, all three major U.S. indices fell sharply, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq down 1.86%, 0.90%, and 2.76%, respectively.
According to Bitpush data, Bitcoin broke below the support level of $72,000 around midday, subsequently falling below $70,000. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $70,452, down nearly 3% in 24 hours.
Altcoins also fell broadly, with SOL dropping below $170 and BNB falling below $580, both down more than 3% in 24 hours. The overall market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is currently $2.34 trillion, with Bitcoin's market share at 59%.
Despite the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch tool indicating that the market generally expects a 25 basis point rate cut in the last two FOMC meetings of 2024, investors remain cautious ahead of the U.S. presidential election.
Trump's Winning Odds Decrease
Data from the crypto betting site Polymarket shows that Trump's chances of winning have decreased from 67% two days ago to 63%, while Democratic candidate Kamala Harris's odds have increased from 33% to 36%.
Meanwhile, shares of Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) have plummeted 34% over the past three days, after rising 352% last month.
Brian Rudick, head of research at crypto trading firm GSR, pointed out: "Since Trump began accepting digital assets in May, the correlation between Trump's election winning odds and Bitcoin prices has only been 25-35%." However, he noted that this correlation may increase as election day approaches.
Has Uptober Been Achieved?
Looking at the overall performance this month, Bitcoin plummeted to a low of $58,855 on October 10 but then began a rebound, rising close to historical highs, with a current 30-day increase of approximately 16.08%. According to market analyst Nagato, a closing price below $71,400 this month would indicate "failure."
He wrote in a post on X: "Bitcoin has some time left until the monthly closing price, which could become one of the most important closing prices in Bitcoin's history. $71,400 is the bottom line. If it closes above this level, it will further validate Uptober."
TradingView analyst TradingShot noted that with the month coming to a close, unless BTC drops $7,000 in the next few hours, it will close in the green. He stated: "This will be the second consecutive green monthly close since March."
Analysts stated: "This prolonged 7-month consolidation period is not unfamiliar to Bitcoin, as it is common to see consecutive months of non-green closes during accumulation phases in a bull market."
TradingShot emphasized: "So far in the current bull market, we have experienced three such phases (including March 2024), and once the market closes with two consecutive green monthly closes, a rebound typically follows. The bull market from 2019 to 2021 had three such consecutive green monthly closes, and there was a very clear accumulation phase, while the bull market from 2015 to 2018 had countless instances. From the long-term chart above, it is clear that when the market closes with two consecutive green monthly closes, it has always been a good buy signal."
