Is the Memecoin trend changing? — Observing the shift in market sentiment for on-chain and exchange Memecoins

Author: Kevin, the Researcher from BlockBooster

Murad depicted the supercycle of Memecoins, arguing in a way familiar to VCs, including the prospects of altcoins, the shift in the crypto industry, and changes in future trends:

• Defined the Memecoin Supercycle, deriding altcoins that generate only $500 in daily revenue but are valued at $7 billion;
• Outlined the golden age of Memecoins, at the cost of definitively concluding the fate of altcoins that have fallen to the bottom but were once laden with bull market myths. "All altcoins are essentially Memecoins, just more complex versions."

Murad's views may seem radical, and we do not intend to judge them, but his mention of "the trading trends of Memecoins are changing" is worth further exploration. This article will analyze the development of Memecoins that need to build communities and make long-term investments in their early stages, using $MOODENG as an example, while also analyzing the common characteristics of the top five Memecoins recommended by Murad, objectively observing new trends in Memecoins.

Review of $MOODENG

Moo Deng is a small pygmy hippo born on July 10, 2024, at the Khao Kheow Open Zoo in Thailand. After the zoo shared photos of his birth on its official Facebook page, he quickly became a beloved star. Due to Moo Deng's rising popularity online, the zoo's daily visitor count doubled in early September 2024.

Currently, there are three Memecoins related to Moo Deng: $MOODENG on Solana and Ethereum, and $HIPPO on Sui. The three were launched on September 10, September 15, and September 27, respectively.

First, let’s take a look at the common on-chain data for Solana $MOODENG:

Natural Growth of Holders is Rapid, with Bots Interspersed

Total Address Growth of SOL $MOODENG

From the chart showing the growth of total wallet addresses, there are three notable periods of abnormal activity:

1. First, from September 16 to 18, the number of addresses surged sharply from 1,970 to 22,645;
2. After three days of natural growth, there was an abnormal drop between September 21 and 22, with the number of addresses decreasing from 25,790 to 9,204;
3. The second abnormal surge occurred from September 29 to 30, with the number of addresses skyrocketing from 28,344 to 49,502.

Additionally, among the current total of 52,413 addresses, 25,464 addresses have never sold their holdings since their initial purchase, resulting in a diamond hands ratio of 48%.

Number of Diamond Hands Addresses for SOL $MOODENG

When we conduct a simple filter on the holding levels of on-chain addresses, we find that the number of addresses with $MOODENG holdings in the aforementioned abnormal addresses is less than 100. The team rapidly and linearly deployed nearly 20,000 addresses within three days, triggering the alert indicators for chain-sweeping bots while maintaining a stable upward price channel, attracting market attention.

Meanwhile, we observe the following three charts, which show the total number of wallet addresses holding $MOODENG, the number of addresses holding 0.0005% $MOODENG (4,950 addresses, approximately worth $693), the number of addresses holding 0.005% (49,500 addresses, approximately $6,930), and the number of addresses holding 0.05% (495,000 addresses, approximately $69,300). After filtering out bot addresses and raising the minimum holding threshold to 4,950 $MOODENG, we can see a clearer trend: the number of holders with small and medium holdings continues to grow steadily, while large holders ceased to grow after the 21st.

Focusing on small holdings, we can see that starting from September 16, the number of addresses skyrocketed due to the surge of new addresses. As the FOMO effect intensified, the natural growth of small holdings further accelerated, peaking on the 20th. When the team observed this stable natural growth, they removed the bot addresses deployed between the 16th and 18th. As the price of $MOODENG peaked on the 28th, the number of addresses began to decline, synchronizing with the price trend.

The growth of medium holdings slowed after the 18th, with a larger sell-off volume than small holdings after the 28th.

From September 28 to October 6, small holdings decreased by 12.2%, medium holdings decreased by 16.5%, and large holdings decreased by 25.8%.

Growth Rate of SOL $MOODENG Address Tiers

The peak times for the three types of holdings also differ: large holdings peaked on September 21, medium holdings peaked on September 27, and small holdings reached their maximum on September 28.

Highly Concentrated Chips

Further digging into the on-chain data of $MOODENG reveals that after ignoring the interference of the top 10 addresses by holdings, the remaining top 5% of addresses hold nearly 90% of the circulating supply. Specifically, the top 5% of addresses held 46% on the 10th, surged to 71% on the 11th, and maintained over 90% between the 21st and 24th. Currently, it is around 85%. Therefore, the holding of $MOODENG tokens is highly concentrated.

Mature Team Operations

Large Purchases by Individual Addresses of SOL $MOODENG

The team has been continuously buying since the token's launch until the 28th. As shown in the chart, the team accumulated a large amount of chips in the first two days, especially on the 10th and 11th, while also achieving significant results in maintaining the candlestick trend. Combining the two charts, we can visually see that the team made two strong price pushes on the 21st and 24th, rhythmically breaking through the consolidation range over a three-day period.

Price Trend of SOL $MOODENG

Comparison with Ethereum $MOODENG

Using the aforementioned indicators to observe the on-chain data of Ethereum $MOODENG, we find that for retail investors, interest had already waned before Vitalik sold $MOODENG from his wallet, with almost no growth in on-chain addresses, and the team did not actively maintain the community and trend patterns, which is extremely common in clones. In the ten days prior, the total number of addresses showed no growth, and the team had essentially given up.

Interestingly, during this period, addresses with medium holdings chose to sell tokens as prices continued to decline. From the 25th to the 5th, medium holdings were consistently selling to minimize losses. In contrast, retail investors adopted a "buy and hold" strategy.

On October 5, with Vitalik's tweet, FOMO sentiment on the ETH chain was ignited, leading to a sudden surge in small holding addresses. Medium holdings also increased, but after peaking on the 7th, many addresses began to sell, and large holdings did the same. From the charts above, we can see that large addresses began selling on the 5th, while medium and large ones started selling on the 7th, indicating the team's urgency to offload.

In terms of chip concentration, the concentration of $MOODENG tokens on the ETH chain is not as high as that on the SOL chain, but it has been steadily rising since the 5th, reaching a peak of 58.6% on the 8th.

Controlling Token Holding Structure and Trend Patterns: A New Approach to Memecoin Marketing

The $MOODENG on SOL did not engage in much KOL promotion; instead, the team focused on promoting their own X account. Their core strategy is reflected in controlling the trend patterns of the tokens. While building the community, they accumulated a large number of tokens early on, achieving a highly concentrated chip structure, and realized breakthroughs after multiple consolidation phases. In terms of price trend control and trading strategy, the ETH team pales in comparison. The SOL team successfully concentrated control over 90% of the tokens, while the ETH team only controlled 48%. However, controlling chips is a common practice for any Memecoin; it is not that controlling chips is unimportant, but what to do after controlling them is what distinguishes the winners from the losers. In expanding influence, today's Memecoins no longer rely on KOL promotion. For the team, the key lies in how to artificially trigger these bots and platform indicators. If executed properly, these bots and platforms can become free marketing tools.

Overview of the Top Five Memecoins Recommended by Murad

Murad mentioned that when selecting Memecoins, the criteria are as follows: mid-cap coins with a market cap between $5 million and $200 million; located on Solana and Ethereum; and having at least six months of history. These criteria can also be understood through the indicators mentioned above, which I believe can be translated into two directions: the team's willingness to maintain prices; and the level of FOMO among users.

The former refers to the ability of the team/whales/community to maintain prices during downturns, forming a long period of stable consolidation, and strongly pushing prices when a breakout is needed. For Memecoins, relying solely on user sentiment is insufficient to sustain price increases, as no one can control the buying and selling behavior of retail investors. Therefore, attracting large holders or retail traders ultimately depends on their own price behavior on the tokens, especially during downturns and breakouts. Thus, the concentration level of the team/whale chips, to some extent, indicates the team's willingness and determination to act at key price points. Of course, this process also relies on community support; for example, the price trend of $SPX is not strongly correlated with team actions, which stems from Murad's influence. The latter can be analyzed from the increase in the number of user holders, while observing changes in top holdings can guide us on when to sell.

From the perspective of the dominance of the top 5%, the five tokens recommended by Murad are all strong whale coins, with the team and large holders controlling most of the chips. Among them, $POPCAT and $GIGA have a concentration rate exceeding 85%. The remaining three are also above 60%. The highly concentrated chip structure ensures that when price patterns change or break out, prices can develop to some extent in line with the team's intentions, making it difficult to collapse easily. For tokens with very little team holding, you may see a situation where prices rise sharply, but within 1-3 days, they begin to collapse, further testing the timing of selling.

Among these five tokens, the ones that best reflect these two directions are $POPCAT, $MOG, and $SPX.

The most recent team intervention in the token pattern of $POPCAT occurred on October 10. The week prior, on October 4, the team did not significantly push the price before it broke through its ATH, but after three days of rising, retail large holders began to sell. During those three days, the selling volume did not decrease, but the price fell by about 5% daily. Therefore, on the 10th, the team made significant purchases to keep the price within the upward channel. $MOG is similar; the team's recent three adjustments occurred at the end of September and the beginning of October. The current trend of $MOG is a six-month consolidation box, with a small trend being an upward channel for over a month. When the price approaches the mid-axis of the box, retail selling behavior occurs, and the closer it gets to the upper edge of the box, the stronger the retail selling sentiment. The team controlled the pattern at three points where the price was about to break the upward channel, showing a strong willingness to maintain the trend and potential breakout hints. Both $POPCAT and $MOG exhibit clear behaviors of team/whale/manipulator control, sending clear signals to the market and consolidating upward momentum.

$SPX, on the other hand, is one of the most FOMO tokens in the market in September, leading to very strong buying sentiment among retail investors. As prices accelerated through one upward channel after another, it did not require strong team intervention to maintain astonishing gains. Murad's remarkable ability to drive sales has brought the FOMO level of retail investors in $SPX to a peak.

Overview of Exchange Memecoins

Among the top 200 tokens, aside from the five recommended by Murad, the main liquidity of the remaining Memecoins is on exchanges. During this cycle, the performance of Memecoins on exchanges has also varied. Based on liquidity dominance and the duration of maintaining a single pattern, we can indicate whether strong price performance can emerge after a breakout, and which performs stronger compared to on-chain Memecoins.

Specifically, $Neiro and $TURBO have very high dominance rates, with most liquidity on Binance. When Binance holds the vast majority of chips, it no longer needs to consolidate for accumulation and can immediately drive the market.

BRETT, MEW, and DOG are the remaining three tokens with relatively high dominance rates, all of which have recently achieved pattern changes or breakouts. BRETT broke out of a five-month downward channel, MEW broke out of a seven-month downward channel, but due to their liquidity not being on mainstream exchanges, their post-breakout trends are not as strong compared to the Memecoins listed above. DOG maintained an upward channel for a month after breaking out.

Due to dispersed liquidity, some tokens failed to maintain an upward channel after breaking out, which is regrettable. For example, PEPE, after breaking out of a seven-month consolidation period, is currently in a two-week horizontal box, performing not as well compared to other hot Memecoins.

Additionally, other Memecoins that achieved price breakouts include Wif, Bome, DOGS, and DOGE. Among them, Wif is in a two-week upward channel, Bome is the most recently broken Memecoin dominated by Binance, and DOGE, like Bome, broke out of a seven-month consolidation period, with expectations for their upcoming trends. DOGS is still in a three-month downward channel.

The remaining tokens that have been in a horizontal position for seven months but have not achieved breakouts include SHIB, BONK, and MEME. The more false breakouts occur, the higher the likelihood that the token cannot break out into its independent market, needing to rely on the overall market trend, indicating that attention should be paid to stop-loss prices when considering right-side buying. People have maintained a four-month horizontal position and also need to pay attention to buying positions when prices break out.

Conclusion

The craze for Memecoins is far from over, but altcoins are certainly not worthless. The question of whether focusing on fundamentals can bring corresponding returns in this cycle is still open. This article introduced how to verify the commonalities in the development of hot Memecoins through on-chain data, hoping to highlight one possible future trend for Memecoins.

All images in this article are created by the author. Please contact the author for use.

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